It's one of the questions I get asked most often during the offseason.
"Who is this year's (enter breakout player from last season)?"
It's not a simple question to answer, because no two scenarios are exactly alike. But there are obviously comparable players in similar situations. And if the people want comparisons, comparisons they shall receive!
The process here was simple: I jotted down each of 2021's top breakout players and came up with a short list of guys who have a similar pedigree as they enter 2022. Below is an analysis of each player who best fits the bill, as well as the others who landed on the short list.
Note that this is not my way of definitively predicting these players will definitely break out this season. Again, it's simply those positioned to do so as a product of landing in a similar situation to the players who burst onto the fantasy scene last season.
This season's Joe Burrow: Trevor Lawrence
The 2020 first overall NFL draft pick emerged into a QB1 in his second season.
Carson Wentz (2017), Patrick Mahomes (2018), Lamar Jackson (2019), Kyler Murray (2020) and Burrow (2021) are recent examples of first-round quarterbacks who broke out in their second seasons. None was as productive as a rookie, which is notable here as Lawrence certainly had his struggles -- granted, under poor circumstances -- in his first season. Weak efficiency isn't a major concern for first-year signal-callers, who generally make a big leap in Year 2. Lawrence, who ranked seventh in pass attempts and fifth in carries among quarterbacks, will also benefit from an improved supporting cast led by Christian Kirk, Travis Etienne Jr., Evan Engram and Brandon Scherff. He's an extremely logical and somewhat overlooked breakout candidate who should be on your radar in the later rounds.
Other candidates: Zach Wilson, Mac Jones, Davis Mills
This season's Jalen Hurts: Trey Lance
Hurts relied heavily on his elite rushing ability to emerge as a QB1 in his second NFL season.
Hurts paced all quarterbacks in carries, rushing yards and rushing touchdowns, which allowed him to produce at a midrange-QB1 level despite ranking outside the top 20 in passing yards and TDs. It wouldn't be a surprise to see Lance achieve something similar in 2022. He posted a 169 carry-1,100 yard-14 TD rushing line in his lone full collegiate season and ran 24 times for 120 yards in two starts as a rookie. Set up nicely with Kyle Shanahan as his playcaller and Deebo Samuel and George Kittle as primary targets, Lance is well positioned for a strong fantasy campaign. Even if he underwhelms as a passer, there is QB1 upside in his range of outcomes.
Other candidates: Justin Fields
This season's Jonathan Taylor: Javonte Williams
Taylor emerged as an elite RB1 in his second NFL season.
This may not seem like a great comp considering that Melvin Gordon III remains on the Denver roster, but consider this: Taylor was in a similar position early in 2021. He played 50% of the Colts' snaps and was 11th at running back in fantasy points through Week 5 before fending off Marlon Mack and Nyheim Hines on his way to a 78% snap share and 64 more fantasy points than any other back the rest of the way. Perhaps Williams can achieve something similar this season with 29-year-old Gordon's role only expected to decrease. With a new coaching staff and a much better QB in Russell Wilson, Williams is set up well for a big leap.
Other candidates: Travis Etienne Jr.
This season's Javonte Williams: Kenneth Walker III
Williams was an explosive rookie back who made noise while operating in a committee.
Speaking of Williams, his 17th-place fantasy campaign as a rookie was quite impressive considering his 50/50 split with Gordon for 16 of 17 games. Walker could be looking at more of a 20-30% snap share to begin his career, as Rashaad Penny will be the lead rusher with DeeJay Dallas and Travis Homer options in passing situations. Of course, Walker's collegiate rushing efficiency was nothing short of elite and suggests he'll deliver plenty of big plays, same as Williams did. Early-career fantasy value is unlikely, but Walker's second-round pedigree and Penny's major durability issues tell us that he'll jump into, at least, the RB2 mix if Penny misses time.
Other candidates: Isaiah Spiller, James Cook, Rachaad White
This season's Najee Harris: Breece Hall
Harris was immediately a weekly lineup lock as an early-round rookie running back.
Whereas Harris had an extremely clear path to feature back duties, Hall will need to fend off Michael Carter, especially on passing downs. Still, Hall is the clear top three-down-back prospect in this year's rookie class and projects as a 15-plus-touch player out of the gate. Hall, who scored a touchdown in an NCAA-record 24 consecutive games to end his collegiate career, is an extreme long shot to come close to Harris' 381 touches, but could push for close to 280. That'd be enough to make him a must-start and perhaps even a fantasy RB1, especially in non-PPR leagues.
This season's Elijah Mitchell/Michael Carter: Tyler Allgeier
Mitchell and Carter were Day 3 rookies who quickly found their way to lead-back duties and, in turn, weekly fantasy lineups.
Before we dive into this one, let's be clear that Day 3 RBs have a very low hit rate and are extreme long shots for consistent Year 1 fantasy production. We obviously don't want to get too caught up in this year's slate of mid/late-round picks at the position, but we did see sixth-round gem Mitchell and fourth-rounder Carter flirt with RB2 status at times last season. Allgeier is in a similar spot to Carter in that the fifth-round pick was selected by a team with arguably the league's shakiest backfield. His top competition will come from 31-year-old Cordarrelle Patterson, who will also play wide receiver a bit, and 30-year-old career situational back Damien Williams. Allgeier was a super-productive and efficient rusher at BYU and has good size at 224 pounds. He may lack for targets, but Allgeier, at the least, has a shot at big early-down, and perhaps goal-line, roles. Consider him late in your draft.
Other candidates: Dameon Pierce
This season's Cordarrelle Patterson: None
Patterson was a versatile, journeyman offensive player who finally emerged as a fantasy starter.
The Atlanta backfield is a natural segue to this year's Patterson, whom we can't skip over after his RB9 fantasy campaign but who was such an unusual breakout that it's extremely tough to find a potential comp. Patterson spent most of his first eight NFL seasons as a returner and depth receiver before blooming as a RB/WR hybrid in Atlanta last season. The best I can do is list a few multitalented veterans: Isaiah McKenzie (a career return man/depth receiver battling for primary slot duties in Buffalo), Avery Williams (Atlanta return man who converted from corner to RB during the offseason) and Laviska Shenault Jr. (figures to play a more versatile role this season, but likely has too much competition to emerge as a fantasy option). None are great comps, but hey, they're somethin'!
This season's Deebo Samuel/Hunter Renfrow: CeeDee Lamb
Samuel and Renfrow suddenly became top-10 fantasy WRs in their third NFL season.
Lamb seemed destined for a Year 2 breakout last season, but Dak Prescott spread the ball around quite a bit, which limited the ceiling for him and Amari Cooper, but helped the likes of Dalton Schultz, Cedrick Wilson and Tony Pollard. In fact, Lamb has finished 48th and 36th at wide receiver in target share during his two seasons. Of course, with Cooper and Wilson gone and Michael Gallup recovering from a torn ACL, Lamb finally appears in line for a leap in usage and production. The 23-year-old is being drafted well before Samuel and Renfrow were in 2021 drafts, so while the comp isn't perfect, Lamb is nonetheless a clear breakout candidate with elite upside.
Other candidates: Jerry Jeudy, Michael Pittman Jr. (Both of these guys have a bit of a Cooper Kupp feel to them as well, in the sense that they're veteran WRs with new QBs who could vault them to the elite if all goes right.)
This season's Ja'Marr Chase/Jaylen Waddle: Drake London
Chase and Waddle were first-round rookie WRs who quickly emerged as a weekly fantasy starters.
Six wide receivers were selected in the first 18 picks of April's draft, so we have a lot of candidates for this one. London is the favorite for a variety of reasons, led by the fact that he was the first one selected and that he has the clearest path to No. 1 duties in his new offense. London's top competition at wide receiver is Bryan Edwards and Olamide Zaccheaus, which should lock the rookie into a 90% or so snap share and substantial target share every week he's healthy. Rookie receivers selected in the first half of the first round have a strong track record of success in recent seasons, so London -- as well as the "other candidates" listed below -- should be selected earlier than they are in most drafts this offseason. Jameson Williams is excluded here, since he is expected to miss time while rehabbing a torn ACL.
Other candidates: Treylon Burks, Chris Olave, Garrett Wilson, Jahan Dotson
This season's 2019 Chris Godwin: Gabriel Davis
Godwin was an underutilized midround WR during his first two seasons before breaking out in a larger role with a great offense in Year 3.
I'm cheating here by going back to 2019, but I can't get past the overwhelming similarities between these situations. Check this out. Godwin was a third-round pick who played situational snaps and posted 34-525-1 and 59-842-7 receiving lines during his first two seasons. In Year 3, he was finally vaulted to an every-down role with a much larger target share in a pass-heavy, high-scoring offense, which resulted in an 86-1,333-9 receiving line and second-place fantasy campaign. Davis was a fourth-round pick who played situational snaps and posted 35-599-7 and 35-549-6 receiving lines during his first two seasons (39-684-7 and 45-791-11 if we include five playoff games). In Year 3, he appears headed for an every-down role with a much larger target share in a pass-heavy, high-scoring offense led by Josh Allen. Is Davis a breakout lock? Of course not. But he's certainly positioned well.
This season's Amon-Ra St. Brown: Romeo Doubs
St. Brown was a Day 3 rookie WR who emerged as a fantasy starter after a slow start.
This was a tough one and I wouldn't get too caught up in it, as Day 3 rookie wide receivers rarely find themselves on the fantasy radar. Still, St. Brown proved to be an exception, so we'll take a look at a 2022 candidate in a similar spot. Selected in the fourth round of April's draft, Doubs was the second of three wide receivers picked by Green Bay. Christian Watson (second round) has received plenty of fantasy hype and Samori Toure (seventh) is an obvious long shot, leaving Doubs as the intriguing flier. With Davante Adams and Marquez Valdes-Scantling gone, the Packers' WR depth chart is wide open, with the rookies battling Allen Lazard, Randall Cobb, Sammy Watkins and Amari Rodgers for snaps. Doubs operated as a vertical, perimeter target at Nevada and could step into a similar role with the Packers. Monitor his progress throughout the preseason.
Other candidates: Calvin Austin III, Kyle Phillips, Michael Woods II
This season's Darnell Mooney: Nico Collins
Mooney was a sleeper receiver who made a big leap in his second season.
Mooney's breakout came despite opening the season seemingly behind a veteran No. 1 receiver (Allen Robinson II) in a low-scoring Chicago offense, and Collins is in a similar spot behind Brandin Cooks in Houston. With John Metchie III expected to miss the 2022 season, Collins should easily lock down No. 2 duties, with Chris Conley, Chris Moore and Phillip Dorsett as his top competition. Collins, a 2021 third-round pick, is a huge (6-foot-4, 222 pounds), vertical receiver (12th in average depth of route as a rookie) with a path to a big boost in volume after seeing 61 targets in 14 games last season. Don't overlook him as a sleeper late in your draft.
Other candidates: Rondale Moore, Joshua Palmer, Terrace Marshall, Anthony Schwartz, Dee Eskridge
This season's Kyle Pitts/Pat Freiermuth: None
Pitts and Freiermuth emerged as TE1 options as rookies.
Following impressive rookie campaigns, Pitts ranks fourth and Freiermuth 10th of all time in fantasy points by a first-year tight end. Evan Engram (2017) is the only other rookie tight end to clear 150 fantasy points over the past decade. That said, it'd be a reach to expect anyone from this year's rookie class to find his way to weekly TE1 status, especially since the top TE drafted, Trey McBride, will be blocked for work by veteran Zach Ertz. The other candidates below have a path to significant first-year snaps and perhaps one will emerge, but none needs to be on your radar in your run-of-the-mill 10-to-12-team leagues.
Potential candidates: Greg Dulcich, Jelani Woods, Cade Otton, Daniel Bellinger
This season's Dalton Schultz: Pat Freiermuth
Schultz was a veteran TE who made the leap to must-start territory.
Schultz's leap (from 11th in fantasy points in 2020 to third in 2021) came in his fourth NFL season, but Freiermuth appears to be on a bit of a faster track after finishing 13th in 2021 despite spending half the season "behind" Eric Ebron. With Ebron gone, Freiermuth figures to hang close to the 6.0 targets per game he averaged after Pittsburgh's Week 7 bye last season. The Pittsburgh QB situation is a concern, but it wasn't very good last season (6.0 YPA ranked 30th) and Freiermuth still delivered TE1 production once promoted to starter. He remains a value in the middle rounds of drafts.
Other candidates: Cole Kmet, David Njoku, Irv Smith Jr.