If you're not already aware, I'm the human who creates the fantasy football player projections here at ESPN.
Although some would swear the projection numbers are totally automated or randomly generated, I assure you they are not. I have a lengthy process that involves statistical calculations and subjective inputs. The latter is where this piece truly comes in handy. To begin each NFL season, I go team by team and thoroughly analyze historical league, team, coach and player trends. From there, on the player level, I generate projected dropback, carry and target shares for each player.
I recently completed that process and -- same as in recent years -- took notes. Below are my observations, as well as a brief application to fantasy football in 2022.
Be sure to also check out our sortable player projection page (the 17-game season has been applied) and my detailed 2022 NFL projection PDF guide.
1. Last season was the first in NFL history with 17 regular-season games. One of my first tasks during this process was to see how many players actually made it through all 17 games. As you might imagine, it wasn't many.
Eleven starting quarterbacks made it through 17 games, and eight more appeared in at least 15 games. Thirty-one quarterbacks appeared in at least 70% (12+) of his team's games.
Only 17 running backs were active for 17 games, though five of them were fullbacks. Of the 12 tailbacks, only four were the clear lead back for their team for all or most of the season (Najee Harris, Ezekiel Elliott, Jonathan Taylor and Devin Singletary). Yikes. I also looked at my final player projections from 2021 (released just prior to Week 1). Of the top 40 projected RBs, nine played 17 games, four played 16, four played 15 and three played 14. One more incredible stat: Only three tailbacks have appeared in all 33 regular-season games over the last two seasons (Taylor, Singletary and Darrel Williams). The aforementioned RBs, as well as the likes of Javonte Williams, AJ Dillon and Sony Michel, played all 17 in 2021 but can't be counted on to do so in 2022.
At wide receiver, we saw 39 players appear in 17 games. Roughly 15 of those receivers were "fantasy starters," as the list includes depth receivers like Trent Sherfield and Ashton Dulin. Of my top-50 projected wide receivers, only 15 appeared in 17 games and a total of 34 appeared in at least 14 games.
Tight end had 26 players reach 17 games, though only eight had a target share above 9%. Of those eight, six (Mark Andrews, Kyle Pitts, Zach Ertz, Mike Gesicki, Hunter Henry and Dalton Schultz) were top-10 finishers in fantasy points. Of my top-30 projected tight ends, nine made it through 17 games and 21 appeared in at least 15 games.
As pointed out in previous years, I don't project any players to appear in 100% of regular-season games and these numbers should help explain why.
2. I have a little more research for you before I start getting into the team/coach/player-level tidbits. Yards per pass attempt is not the best stat to evaluate quarterback performance, but finding avenues to projected YPA is useful for the projection compilation process. I did a little digging on how exactly to do that and one of my revelations was how strong regression to the mean affects YPA on the player level each year. Check this out (and keep in mind that I'm including only players who dropped back to pass at least 200 times both seasons):
Since 2010, 29 QBs have posted a YPA of at least 8.2 and played significant snaps the next season. Of the 29, 28 had a lower YPA the second season (exception: Aaron Rodgers 2010-11) and only three reached 8.3 the second season. In 2021, Joe Burrow (8.9) and Jimmy Garoppolo (8.6) were over 8.2 and are obvious candidates for a big dip in 2022.
On the other end, 36 QBs have had a YPA of 6.7 or lower and played significant snaps the next season. Of the 36, 28 had a higher YPA the second season, which includes all 11 who were below 6.3. The notable regression to the mean candidates from 2021 include Jared Goff (6.6), Sam Darnold (6.2), Zach Wilson (6.1) and Trevor Lawrence (6.0).
Note that while quarterbacks rarely hang near the extreme, the "good" quarterbacks in the category still tend to out-produce the "low-end" ones. The QBs with the top-36 YPAs in our sample averaged an 8.5 YPA in the first season and 7.7 in the second. The QBs with the bottom-36 YPAs in the sample averaged a 6.3 YPA in the first season and 6.9 in the second.
OK, let's get to the player level tidbits ...
4. Identifying "drop-off" age isn't a walk in the park, but Hopkins (among others) led me to some digging on when we should expect players to fall off the proverbial cliff. I looked at the career progress of top-scoring fantasy WRs from the past 20 years and found that almost all of them had one last big season at age 30.
That includes Larry Fitzgerald (final top-10 fantasy season was at age 34), Andre Johnson (32), Brandon Marshall (31), Roddy White (30) and Wes Welker (31). Antonio Brown (30) and Julio Jones (30) are still active, but they also fit the bill. Anquan Boldin (27) is an exception, though he hung around as a WR2/3 until age 35. Calvin Johnson's final top-10 season was at age 27, but he had a pair of top-16 seasons before retiring at 29. This list is pretty compelling evidence that Hopkins (as well as the likes of Mike Evans, Cooper Kupp, Davante Adams and Keenan Allen) has a legitimate shot at another season or two of elite fantasy production.
5. Bills WR Jamison Crowder has missed at least four games during three of the past four seasons, but he's been busy when active. Crowder hasn't been below a 16% target share since he was a rookie in 2015. The man he is replacing -- Cole Beasley -- hung around a 19-20% target share in Buffalo and, if Crowder handles something similar, he'll sneak back into the WR3 discussion.
6. Bengals WRs Ja'Marr Chase, Tee Higgins and Tyler Boyd appeared in 18 games together last season, including the playoffs. During those outings, Chase paced the group with 144 targets (24% share), with Higgins close behind (140, 23%) and Boyd (96, 16%) well in the rear view. It's clear who Joe Burrow's top two targets are in this offense and both have top-10 fantasy upside.
7. Browns' RBs Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt were active and fully healthy together for only five games last season (Weeks 1-5). During those outings, Chubb handled 90 carries (55% team share) and five targets (4%), compared to 55 carries (34%) and 21 targets (15%) for Hunt. Hunt was sixth and Chubb 12th in fantasy points during the span. In 2020, the duo played 11 full games together. Chubb handled 184 carries (54%) and 19 targets (6%) and Hunt was at 122 carries (36%) and 39 targets (12%). Chubb was RB4 and Hunt RB13 in fantasy those weeks. Chubb has been heavily reliant on rushing efficiency and touchdowns, which has overcome very limited passing-game work. He's a candidate to be over-drafted in an offense that may lean more on the pass with Deshaun Watson in town.
8. Here is a complete list of players with eight-plus receptions in five consecutive games since 1950: Michael Thomas, Antonio Brown, Travis Kelce, Anquan Boldin, Wes Welker, Andre Johnson, Marvin Harrison (twice), Isaac Bruce, Larry Fitzgerald, Calvin Johnson, T.J. Houshmandzadeh, Eric Moulds, Muhsin Muhammad and ... (*drum roll*) Amon-Ra St. Brown. That, my friends, is what we call "good company." Granted, both T.J. Hockenson and D'Andre Swift missed substantial time due to injury late last season, but St. Brown exploded down the stretch after a slow start. After posting a 39-352-0 receiving line while averaging 4.7 targets per game during his first 11 NFL games, St. Brown had no fewer than 10 targets, eight catches or 73 yards in each of his final six games, scoring five touchdowns during the span. Cooper Kupp was the only wide receiver who scored more fantasy points after Week 12. St. Brown's fourth-round draft standing doesn't mean much anymore. He appears to be the real deal.
9. Packers RB Aaron Jones has missed at least two regular-season games during four of his five NFL campaigns. If we remove the two games he missed in 2021, we show Jones with 183 carries (46%) and 75 targets (14%), compared to 169 carries (42%) and 30 targets (6%) for AJ Dillon. We should expect a similar distribution in 2022 and, considering Jones generally misses time, Dillon will make for a valuable insurance hold.
10. Packers WR Allen Lazard has missed eight games over the past two seasons and Randall Cobb hasn't played a full regular season since 2015. Green Bay's WR room sits among the shakiest in the league after the Davante Adams trade, with the likes of second-year Amari Rodgers, Juwann Winfree and Malik Taylor next up behind Lazard and Cobb. Lazard, Rodgers and perhaps Cobb are currently sleepers because of how good Aaron Rodgers is at football, but expect Green Bay to add an impact player to this position in April.
11. Colts coach Frank Reich has been an offensive coordinator and/or playcaller each of the past eight seasons. All eight of those seasons included a tight end target share at or above 20%. In fact, the Colts' TE target share of 20% last season was a career low for Reich and well below his prior average (27%). With Jack Doyle retired, Mo Alie-Cox and 2021 fourth-round pick Kylen Granson top the depth chart and are certainly on the sleeper radar.
12. Sticking with the Colts, WR Parris Campbell has appeared in 15 of a possible 49 regular-season games (31%) since he was drafted in 2019. The 2019 second-round pick currently sits behind only Michael Pittman Jr. on the depth chart, but the Colts are almost assuredly not done adding at the position. Campbell is only 24, but his durability woes make him no more than a sleeper in very deep leagues.
13. Doug Pederson is back, which means good news for Jaguars tight ends. Pederson has been an offensive coordinator or playcaller for eight seasons and each of the past seven featured a TE target share at or above 27%. His average during the span is 31%, which is way above the 21% league average. Jacksonville signed Evan Engram as a running mate for Dan Arnold and Pederson's history suggests both will be plenty involved in the passing game. Speaking of Engram, he's missed at least two games in three of his past four seasons.
14. Of the top-30 wide receivers in receiving yards and top 25 in fantasy points last season, only one entered Week 1 older than 28 years old. That player was the Chargers' Keenan Allen. This should give us some pause on WR3/flex options in this age range, but as noted at the top, history suggests Allen (entering his age-30 season) has another strong campaign in the tank. He's eyeing his sixth consecutive top-15 fantasy season.
15. Allen's teammate, Mike Williams, entered the 2021 season with a 17% target share and 32nd-place fantasy finish as his career-best marks across four pro seasons. He went on to finish with a 21% share and 12th-place fantasy showing, which landed him a pricey offseason contract extension. The concern here is that, after a hot start to the 2021 season, Williams reverted to his underwhelming usage and production. During Weeks 1-5, he had a 26% target share and was the No. 2 fantasy WR overall. After that, he saw a 19% share and was WR25. Oh, and while he appeared in at least 15 regular-season games each of the past four years, he's also missed at least one game in four of his five pro campaigns.
16. If we look at the top-15 WR target shares posted during the 2010-20 seasons, we see that all 15 players had a lower target share the following season. The 15 receivers averaged a 33.2% share the first season (all were above 31.5%) and 26.1% the next season. This is notable for two receivers: the Rams' Cooper Kupp (31.8% target share in 2021) and the Raiders' Davante Adams (31.6%). Note that this includes only games in which the players were active, so missed games aren't the culprit. Both Kupp and Adams will be very busy in 2022, but history suggests a dip in usage is a lock.
17. A few Rams injury nuggets: Speaking of Kupp, he appeared in all 17 regular-season games last season, but prior to that had missed at least one game in three of four pro campaigns. Especially after handling a massive amount of volume from Week 1 through the Super Bowl, it's fair to expect a missed game or two in 2022. RB Darrell Henderson Jr. has missed three, one and four games during his three pro seasons. TE Tyler Higbee has played exactly 15 games in three straight seasons. Add in 29-year-old WR Allen Robinson II (five missed games last season) and RB Cam Akers (missed a majority of 2021 with a torn Achilles) and durability could be a concern for the defending champs.
18. Speaking of Akers, the former second-round pick first took on lead back duties in Week 13 of the 2020 season and, since that point, has played a substantial role in 10 games. During those 10 outings, he's averaging 19.9 carries and 2.4 targets per game. Akers failed to impress off his surprising return from the torn Achilles during the playoffs, but he's only 22 years old and figures to be much closer to full strength come Week 1. Sean McVay's lead back remains a major breakout candidate.
19. Rams coach Sean McVay has been an offensive coordinator or playcaller for eight seasons and his RB units have averaged a 15% target share during the span. Only once (20% in 2017) has one of his units been above the 2021 league average of 19% and the Rams have been below 14% each of the last three seasons. Expect the target shares of Akers and Henderson to be capped a bit.
20. The Raiders traded for Adams in March, but don't forget about WR Hunter Renfrow. During the 2019-21 regular seasons, Renfrow's YPT is 1.5 over expected, whereas Adams is +1.4. The duo is also almost dead-even in catch rate over expected (Adams +7.5%, Renfrow +7.4%). Both rank top 10 in both categories among 55 WRs with 200-plus targets during the span. Adams is the superior fantasy target, but Renfrow very well could sustain WR2/3 production.
21. Speaking of Adams, the veteran receiver has appeared in 100% of his team's regular-season games in only two of eight pro seasons (2014 and 2016). He's always a candidate to miss a game or two, but not much more than that, so only knock him slightly.
22. Counting only active weeks, Raiders RB Josh Jacobs has handled carry shares of 68%, 66% and 69% in his three pro seasons. His target shares, meanwhile, have increased from 7% to 10% to 12%. Jacobs finished no lower than 12th among backs in carries, targets, touches, yards and fantasy points last season. It's possible Josh McDaniels utilizes more of a committee, but Jacobs' role as the lead ball carrier and goal-line option keeps him in the RB2 mix.
23. Dolphins RB Raheem Mostert, who turns 30 this spring, has handled more than half of his team's carries in seven -- yes, seven -- career games. Even when healthy, Mostert is rarely counted on for anything more than about half the carries and the occasional target. He has played more than 11 games in a season once in his career (2019) and missed all but four snaps last season due to an injury. He's a poor bet to hold up for long stretches in 2022.
24. Dolphins WR DeVante Parker has appeared in 100% of Miami's regular-season games in only one of his seven pro campaigns (2019). That includes seven missed games in 2021. Parker was a top-35 fantasy WR during 10 active weeks last season, but his age (29) and durability woes make him a tough investment. Parker seems likely to be moved by Miami following the Tyreek Hill and Cedrick Wilson additions, and he'll need exactly that in order to find a path to fantasy-relevance.
25. Vikings RB Dalvin Cook has never appeared in more than 14 regular-season games in a single season. After missing a career-high 12 games as a rookie in 2017, he's followed up by missing five, two, two and four games. Cook is still in his prime at age 26, but his extensive missed time hurts his value and helps cement Alexander Mattison as an elite insurance back.
26. Speaking of Minnesota, WR Adam Thielen has missed 11 games over the last three seasons (at least one game missed in all three). Thielen is entering his age-32 campaign, so while he's still a fantasy starter when healthy, we shouldn't expect improved durability.
27. Counting only active weeks, Patriots RB James White hasn't had a target share below 14% since 2015. That includes the two full weeks he was healthy in 2021. White has appeared in 100% of New England's regular-season games in only two of eight pro seasons, so we should expect additional missed action for the 30-year-old. Of course, he'll likely hang on the PPR flex radar when healthy.
28. Sticking with Patriots' RBs, Rhamondre Stevenson played his first significant snaps in Week 5 last season. From that point forward, he and Damien Harris were both active for 10 games. Harris handled 130 carries (42% share) and 11 targets (4%), compared to 110 carries (35%) and 15 targets (6%) for Stevenson during the 10 outings. Filling in for the aforementioned White, Brandon Bolden added 28 carries (9%) and 25 targets (10%) during the span. It's hard to see consistent production coming from anyone in this group, especially with Harris likely headed for a dip in touchdowns (15 TDs, 9.2 expected).
29. Saints RBs Alvin Kamara and Mark Ingram II appeared in four games together last season. Kamara handled 56 carries (54%) and 21 targets (18%), compared to 28 carries (27%) and nine targets (8%) for Ingram. Kamara was 16th and Ingram 47th in fantasy points those weeks, though it's obviously a very small sample. Kamara's usage with Ingram active was more reflective of his pre-2021 deployment and is what we should expect in 2022. Of course, there are other things to consider...
30. Three more Kamara nuggets: 1.) He has played one full regular season in his career, and that came when he was a rookie in 2017. He's "only" missed eight games in his career, but we obviously shouldn't expect 17 from the 26-year-old in 2022. 2.) Including only active weeks, Kamara has handled a target share right at 21% each of the past four seasons. Assuming that continues in 2022, his fantasy floor will remain high. 3.) Kamara's 2021 efficiency was brutal at first glance, but the big changes from pre-2021 to 2021 were a massive rise in box defenders (which will limit YPC) and substantially less pre-contact help. Kamara's YAC was similar to prior years and his RAC sixth best among RBs.
31. Saints TE Adam Trautman seemed to be on the verge of a second-year breakout around the midway point of last season. During the four games spanning Weeks 8-11, Trautman racked up a team-high 28 targets (18% share), including at least six targets in all four games, before missing the next three games due to injury. Prior to the heavy usage, he had averaged 2.0 targets per game and, in the three games after his return from injury, he totaled three targets. So, what changed those four weeks? The quarterback. Jameis Winston didn't look Trautman's way much in the first half of the season, but when Winston tore his ACL, Trevor Siemian took over in Week 8 and kept Trautman busy for a month. Once Trautman returned in Week 15, Taysom Hill was under center and Trautman went back to irrelevance. Hope remains for a third-year Trautman breakout, but don't get tricked into extrapolating that four-game stretch, especially with Winston back.
32. In case you missed it, Saints WR Deonte Harris changed his name to Deonte Harty during the offseason. No fantasy spin here. Just a fun fact.
33. Durability is a massive concern for the Giants' offense. QB Daniel Jones has missed at least two games due to injury during each of his three NFL seasons and -- for a variety of reasons -- backup Tyrod Taylor has never played a full 16-game regular season. RB Saquon Barkley has missed 21 games over the last three seasons, including four in 2021. It's a similar story for WRs Kenny Golladay (one full season in five tries), Kadarius Toney (seven missed games as a rookie in 2021), Sterling Shepard (at least four missed games each of the last four seasons) and Darius Slayton (at least two missed games in two of three pro seasons). Proceed with caution with this offense.
34. Speaking of Toney, check out the "most receiving yards in a single game as a rookie" leaderboard over the last 20 seasons: Ja'Marr Chase (266), Justin Blackmon (236), Anquan Boldin (217), Mike Evans (209), Ja'Marr Chase again (201), JuJu Smith-Schuster (193), Toney (189), Keelan Cole (186), Odell Beckham Jr. (185). In the words of the great Larry David, that's pretty, pretty, pretty good (company).
35. Jets WR Corey Davis has missed at least one game in four of five NFL seasons, including a career-high eight in 2021. In addition to the shaky durability, Davis has also underwhelmed from a fantasy perspective. The former first-round pick has yet to clear five TDs in a season or finish top 30 in fantasy points per game. Davis could sneak into the flex discussion if QB Zach Wilson makes a big leap, but there's not much upside here.
36. Sticking with the Jets' wide receiver room, Braxton Berrios has played at least 40% of the offensive snaps in 11 career games (all with the Jets). During those 11 outings, he averaged a hefty 26% target share (7.7 per game) and 12.6 fantasy points per game (would've ranked 33rd in 2021). Six of the 11 outings came in 2021 and Berrios was the No. 22 fantasy WR those weeks. If Berrios locks down the No. 3/slot gig behind Davis and Elijah Moore, he'll be an interesting PPR sleeper.
37. QB Jalen Hurts has played 100% of the Eagles' snaps in 17 career games. He's handled a massive 27% of the team's designed runs those weeks, which works out to 6.6 carries per game. For perspective, Lamar Jackson's share of Baltimore's designed runs has been 29%, 24% and 25% over the last three seasons. Hurts' seat is hotter than your usual QB1 target, but his elite rushing ability supplies him with top-five fantasy upside.
38. Eagles TE Dallas Goedert played 10 "full" games following last season's Zach Ertz trade. Goedert handled a massive 26% target share (6.7 per game) during the span. For perspective, Mark Andrews averaged a 25.8% target share for the season, which paced all tight ends. If we exclude the playoff game, for obvious reasons, Goedert was fantasy's No. 4 TE during the nine applicable weeks (39-586-2 receiving line). Considering that all four of coach Nick Sirianni's TE rooms have had a target share of at least 24% and that the Eagles' biggest offseason addition thus far has been WR Zach Pascal, Goedert is again positioned for a large role.
39. Steelers coach Mike Tomlin doesn't call the plays, but it's interesting that each of his last 12 tight end units have posted a target share below league average. The 12 units have combined for an 18% share, compared to the 21% league average. I suppose this could limit Pat Freiermuth's upside if Pittsburgh adds a second impact tight end, but as the roster stands, the second-year tight end has a path to plenty of work (~15% target share) and perhaps TE1 production.
40. 49ers TE George Kittle has missed at least one regular-season game in four of five NFL campaigns. That includes at least two missed each of the last three seasons (13 total). Kittle is shockingly inconsistent for a player of his caliber (two games with 34 points or more, but also six single-digit outings last season) and doesn't see much goal-line work (career-high six TDs and seven end zone targets). Of course, he's still finished no worse than fourth in fantasy PPG each of the last four seasons. He's not in the elite tier, but Kittle remains a strong TE1 play.
41. Another year, more durability concerns in the Seattle backfield. Chris Carson has never played a full regular season, missing all but four games twice (2017, 2021) and missing a total of seven games the other three seasons. Rashaad Penny is back after a dominant finish to 2021, but he missed six more games and has now appeared in 37 of 65 possible games (57%) in his career. Penny's durability woes are oft-discussed, but believe it or not, his average of 9.25 games per season barely trails Carson's average of 9.8. Penny has handled 19% of Seattle's designed runs and 2% of the targets since he was drafted in the first round back in 2018. On the other hand, his career 5.6 YPC is second among backs (minimum 150 carries) during the span. Be prepared for the ups and downs if you invest in either in 2022.
42. Buccaneers WR Chris Godwin tore his ACL last season and missed three regular-season games. That brings him to nine missed games over the last three campaigns, including at least two all three years. The knee injury and recent missed games are a concern, but Tampa Bay isn't worried ($40 million guaranteed during the offseason) and Godwin was terrific pre-injury in 2021 (seventh at WR in fantasy PPG). We'll need to monitor his progress, but Godwin figures to return to WR1 status when healthy.
43. Focusing only on full games, Buccaneers WR Mike Evans never fell short of a 23% target share during his first six NFL seasons, but has in both campaigns with Tom Brady under center (18% in 2020, 19% in 2020). Both ranked outside the top 40 at the position. Of course, the Buccaneers' offense has been so good and voluminous that Evans has still managed a pair of top-12 fantasy campaigns with the GOAT. In 2021, Evans missed a game-and-a-half, but still paced all wide receivers in routes (616) and scored 14 touchdowns despite ranking outside the top 20 in targets, receptions and yards. Evans is entering his age-29 season and a larger target share would be ideal, but the Tampa Bay offense is so fantasy-friendly that he may be able to hang on for another WR1/2 showing.
44. Titans RB Derrick Henry appeared in nine games last season, and he handled at least 80% of Tennessee's designed runs in all nine. That's a rare feat, but not surprising for Henry, who handled 79% of the carries in 2019 and 77% in 2020 when active. Henry's age (28) is a concern, but he was still extremely productive last season (fantasy's top-scoring RB by 40 points through Week 8), and his path to a massive workload in one of the league's run-heaviest offenses remains intact.
45. Sticking with the Titans, Mike Vrabel has been the head coach for four seasons and all four TE units had a target share of at least 20% (24% average). It's generally been spread amongst several players, but this breathes a little bit of life into Austin Hooper's fantasy stock. The veteran followed up a pair of sixth-place fantasy finishes with Atlanta (2018-19) with a pair of finishes outside the top 20 with Cleveland (2020-21). Hooper will, of course, need to stay healthy, as he's missed seven games over the last three seasons.
46. Commanders' RBs Antonio Gibson and J.D. McKissic were active for 11 games last season. During those weeks, Gibson handled 183 carries (63% team share) and 30 targets (8%), compared to 48 carries (17%) and 53 targets (15%) for McKissic. Gibson appeared in five games after McKissic's season-ending injury and proceeded to handle 112 carries (67%) and 23 targets (16%). Gibson was fantasy's No. 17 RB with McKissic and sixth without him, though it's worth noting that he was limited at times due to injury during both stretches. McKissic is back for 2022, which is sure to limit Gibson's passing-down work, but the 23-year-old Gibson is in a good spot as the primary ballcarrier and goal-line back.
47. Commanders WR Curtis Samuel missed all but five games last season, and he's now missed at least one game in four of five pro seasons (23 total). The durability is an obvious concern, but Samuel is only 25 years old and, when we last saw him healthy for a full season, he put up 1,048 yards and five TDs while finishing 25th at the position in fantasy points. He's a bounce-back candidate who will come fairly cheap in drafts.