Offensive and defensive linemen might not run the rock themselves, but they can still influence fantasy football.
Each week in this spot, we break down matchups in the trenches and how that information affects your lineup decisions. The basis of the discussion is our win rates -- run block win rate and run stop win rate, as well as pass block win rate and pass rush win rate -- which quantify line performance based on player tracking data using NFL Next Gen Stats.
To this point, we've used the differential between the win rates to determine the best matchups. But from this point forward, we're switching it up: We're simply going to highlight the players facing the weakest -- and strongest -- defensive win rate teams. The reason being, at this stage of the season, the blocking that a running back is getting from his offensive line is baked into our perception of performance. What changes week to week is the defense. Think of it like a receiver who catches passes from the same quarterback every game but each week is squaring off against a different corner.
Below, we break down the NFL Week 9 games, identifying the most and least advantageous matchups based on the projected difference in the offense's and the defense's win rate, for both run and pass. Because of that, this is as much about quantifying each team's blocking ability as it is about the defense each team is up against this week.
Let's dive in!
Advantageous run block matchups
Lamar Jackson and Baltimore Ravens backfield (vs. Vikings)
Ravens' run block win rate rank: third
Vikings' run stop win rate rank: 32nd
This complete mismatch makes a heck of a soft landing spot for the Baltimore ground game coming off a bye. Whoever ends up running the rock for Baltimore ought to have a big day against the weakest run stop unit in the league in the Vikings.
Two offseason imports -- tackle Alejandro Villanueva and guard Kevin Zeitler -- are leading the way with top-10 run block win rate performances at their respective positions, as is center Bradley Bozeman.
As far as Minnesota is concerned, it might be in worse shape than its 32nd rank even suggests, because among Vikings players along the line of scrimmage, run stop win rate was most fond of Danielle Hunter, who is out for the season with a torn pectoral muscle.
Aaron Jones, Green Bay Packers (at Chiefs)
Packers' run block win rate rank: eighth
Chiefs' run stop win rate rank: 31st
With QB Aaron Rodgers out after testing positive for COVID-19, the Packers might need to rely more on the ground game against the Chiefs -- and fortunately for them, Kansas City is awfully accommodating to opposing rushing attacks.
The Packers have been solid in terms of run blocking, but there's a chance for more upside coming soon in the form of David Bakhtiari. It's unclear if the superstar left tackle will return this week against the Chiefs, but there's a possibility he might, and that ought to be a lift to the line. Between 2019 and 2020, Bakhtiari ranked No. 1 in run block win rate at tackle.
Kansas City's lowly run stop win rate and 4.7 yards per designed carry allowed are friendly sights for opposing offenses. New acquisition Melvin Ingram III likely won't be much help, either, with his well-below-average 15% run stop win rate.
Najee Harris, Pittsburgh Steelers (vs. Bears)
Steelers' run block win rate rank: 26th
Bears' run stop win rate rank: 30th
Finally, finally, finally -- Harris gets a break. Unfortunately, he still has to run behind the Steelers' offensive line -- that's not changing anytime soon -- but he gets to go against a run defense that's even weaker than his blockers.
Harris has averaged 3.7 yards per carry this season. Which, to be fair, looks like both he and the line are partially to blame for. Yes, he's gotten poor run blocking, but according to my block adjusted rush yards metric, Harris has recorded 73.8 yards under average given the blocking he has received, too.
The Bears have not only a poor run stop win rate but they're allowing 4.9 yards per carry, too. This might be a time to load up on Harris in DFS.
Disadvantageous run block matchups
Houston Texans backfield (at Dolphins)
Texans' run block win rate rank: 30th
Dolphins' run stop win rate rank: second
Big yikes.
Running back by committee with poor run blocking in front of them as a solid underdog against strong run stop group? There's nothing good here. Avoid at all costs.
Dalvin Cook, Minnesota Vikings (at Ravens)
Vikings' run block win rate rank: 14th
Ravens' run stop win rate rank: third
This is all about Brandon Williams and Calais Campbell along the interior of Baltimore's defensive line. They both rank in the top 10 in run stop win rate as defensive tackles, and that should dampen our expectations for Cook on Sunday.
Second-year guard Ezra Cleveland has been solid in the run game, ranking 16th at his position. Rookie Christian Darrisaw hasn't played enough to qualify for our RBWR leaderboard at tackle, but if he did he'd rank 30th -- a solid start for a rookie in the early stages of his playing time.
Jeremy McNichols and Adrian Peterson, Tennessee Titans (at Rams)
Vikings' run block win rate rank: 20th
Ravens' run stop win rate rank: fourth
This is a rough return to action for Peterson as he prepares to help fill in for the injured Derrick Henry. The key for the Rams against the run is Sebastian Joseph-Day, who is expected to return after missing last week's game against the Texans with a chest injury. Joseph-Day ranks second in run stop win rate at defensive tackle.
The Titans actually don't have particularly great run blocking -- Henry usually just made them look good. The star back actually was in the midst of a down year on the ground -- his rush yards over expectation per carry was only barely positive, per NFL Next Gen Stats data. But regardless, we shouldn't expect Peterson and McNichols to be overly efficient in this offense.
Advantageous pass block matchups
Derek Carr, Las Vegas Raiders (at Giants)
Raiders' pass block win rate rank: 27th
Giants' pass rush win rate rank: 32nd
The Raiders have found an opponent who might not be able to exploit Las Vegas' weak pass protection. Vegas' re-tooling of its offensive line has gone poorly. Andre James and Alex Leatherwood have been liabilities -- though Kolton Miller does deserve praise for his role, ranking 10th in PBWR at tackle.
The Giants don't have a single qualifying pass-rusher above average in pass rush win rate at edge or defensive tackle. Their supposedly best player along the defensive line, Leonard Williams, ranks behind Dexter Lawrence and Austin Johnson in PRWR. And while rookie Azeez Ojulari has flashed for 5.5 sacks, he ranks 43rd in PRWR at edge.
Disadvantageous pass block matchups
Justin Herbert, Los Angeles Chargers (at Eagles)
Chargers' pass block win rate rank: 22nd
Eagles' pass rush win rate rank: first
Rashawn Slater has been solid on the left side of the Chargers' line, but the right side of the line has been an issue: Storm Norton, filling in for an injured Bryan Bulaga, ranks 68th out of 70 tackles in pass block win rate.
Norton draws a tough assignment against Josh Sweat, whose 25% pass rush win rate at edge would rank fifth if he qualified.
Sweat also isn't the only problem the Chargers will have to face: Derek Barnett ranks 10th at edge in the same category, and Javon Hargrave trailed only Aaron Donald in PRWR at defensive tackle.
Joe Burrow, Cincinnati Bengals (vs. Browns)
Bengals' pass block win rate rank: 23rd
Browns' pass rush win rate rank: second
After a strong Week 8, Myles Garrett has ascended to the top of the pass rush win rate leaderboard at edge -- ousting T.J. Watt.
What's scary is not just how good Garrett has been -- both in terms of win rate and also sacks, which he also leads the league in -- but that he's not alone. Jadeveon Clowney and Takkarist McKinley also both rank in the top four in pass rush win rate at edge (McKinley missed last week's game with a groin injury). That's an incredible combination that makes for a brutal matchup for any team.
The problem for Cincinnati is that Jonah Williams, their worst tackle in terms of pass block win rate, will get Garrett. Their guards are also liabilities in pass protection, so Browns DT Malik McDowell could also end up with a big day.
Sack watch
T.J. Watt, Steelers (vs. Bears)
As I've written before, the best pass-rusher from the Bears' opponent is an auto include on this list right now. Justin Fields' 12.4% sack rate is highest in the NFL, and Watt is maybe more likely than anyone to be able to take advantage of that.
Emmanuel Ogbah, Dolphins (vs. Texans)
Ogbah has only 2.5 sacks this season, but he's got a prime opportunity to grab one or two more in Week 9. He gets Charlie Heck at right tackle, protecting Davis Mills. Heck is below average at PBWR at tackle, and Mills takes sacks at an above average rate.
Aaron Donald, Rams (vs. Titans)
Both Titans guards -- Rodger Saffold III and Nate Davis -- have been below average in pass protection this season. That's a problem when you're going against the best interior pass-rusher in the game. Ryan Tannehill takes sacks at a higher-than-average rate, and the Titans will presumably have to pass more in a game they are likely to be losing and without RB Derrick Henry.