Offensive linemen might not run the rock themselves, but they can still influence fantasy football.
Each week in this spot we break down matchups in the trenches, and how that information affects your lineup decisions. The basis of the discussion are our win rates -- run block win rate and run stop win rate, as well as pass block win rate and pass rush win rate -- which quantify line performance based on player tracking data using NFL Next Gen Stats.
To start the year, we leaned on projected versions of our win rates based on the players expected to play along the line of scrimmage for every offense and defense. Once games began, those preseason projections become our priors -- which we then update with actual win rate data for every team.
Below we break down the Week 6 games, identifying the most advantageous and least advantageous matchups based on the projected difference in the offense's win rate and the defense's win rate, for both run and pass. Because of that, this is as much about quantifying each team's blocking ability as it is about the defense they're up against this week.
Let's dive in!
Advantageous Run Blocking Matchups
Antonio Gibson, Washington Football Team (vs. Chiefs)
Washington projected run block win rate rank: 1st
Chiefs projected run stop win rate rank: 32nd
Do you see those ranks!? Folks, this is as extreme as it gets!
Washington's offensive line has set up Gibson for success this year -- though the second-year back hasn't fully capitalized. He has recorded -29 rush yards over expectation, per NFL Next Gen Stats, and ranks 13th in fantasy points among running backs. He hasn't been bad from a fantasy perspective, but those with Gibson on their rosters surely hope he'd gotten more out of that blocking.
But he'll have an excellent opportunity in Week 6 facing off against a Chiefs defense that can't stop anything. Kansas City ranks last in both run stop win rate and projected run stop win rate and is allowing 5.2 yards per carry this season, the third-highest in the league.
One important note: Washington tackle Samuel Cosmi left last week's game against the Saints with an ankle injury. If he were to miss the game, that would be a huge blow to the ground game. Cosmi ranks fourth in run block win rate among tackles.
Lamar Jackson, Latavius Murray and Ty'Son Williams, Baltimore Ravens (vs. Chargers)
Ravens projected run block win rate rank: 4th
Chargers projected run stop win rate rank: 24th
The below average run stop win rate rank actually undersells how friendly the Chargers are to opposing fantasy running backs. Under Brandon Staley the Chargers prioritize stopping the pass, and the result is that they have 8 men in the box on just 9% of runs (well below the 24% league average) and the offense has at least as many blockers as defenders in the box on 87% of runs, the second-highest rate in the league.
That's a very interesting combination against the Ravens. Baltimore isn't running as efficiently as it did a couple of years ago, but it still ranks sixth in both run block win rate and yards per carry. A defense designed to encourage opponents to run could result in a lucrative day for the Ravens' ground game.
Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt, Cleveland Browns (vs. Cardinals)
Browns projected run block win rate rank: 9th
Cardinals projected run stop win rate rank: 31st
Arizona ranks third in defensive efficiency (expected points added per play, with garbage time down-weighted), but the unit does have a pretty major weakness: stopping the run. Arizona ranks 31st in both run stop win rate and yards per carry allowed. And against Cleveland? That looks like a problem.
The Browns have good-but-not-great run blocking but they're able to exceed that with the rush-yards-over-expectation king in Chubb carrying the ball. That leads the Browns to have, by far, the most efficient run game in the league in terms of EPA per play. That is what allows them to lean on the ground game and still be efficient as an offense, which should particularly be the case vs. Arizona on Sunday.
Disadvantageous Run Blocking Matchups
Josh Jacobs, Las Vegas Raiders (at Broncos)
Raiders projected run block win rate rank: 31st
Broncos projected run stop win rate rank: 11th
The Raiders are almost destined to end up on this list every week now. Guard John Simpson ranks last at his position in run block win rate, center Andre James ranks second-to-last, and tackles Alex Leatherwood and Kolton Miller are both in the bottom 10 (Leatherwood played guard last week).
Add in the fact that Jacobs has achieved negative rush yards over expectation, and his 3.2 yards per carry starts to make a heck of a lot of sense.
Advantageous Pass Blocking Matchups
Matthew Stafford, Los Angeles Rams (at Giants)
Rams projected pass block win rate rank: 2nd
Giants projected pass stop win rate rank: 30th
It's time for a well-deserved shoutout for the Rams offensive line, which has absolutely been killing it in pass protection, trailing only the Browns in PBWR. It's all about the tackles: veterans Rob Havenstein and Andrew Whitworth are both in the top 10 in pass block win rate -- and that's actually without a particularly high play-action rate (just 22% of dropbacks, below average), which normally buoys the Rams OL's numbers.
The Giants simply don't scare you from a pass-rushing standpoint. Azeez Ojulari and Lorenzo Carter are both below average from edge, and Leonard Williams -- who the Giants signed to a megadeal including $45 million guaranteed this offseason -- ranks 50th in PRWR at defensive tackle. All of the other DTs on the Giants are below average, too.
Disadvantageous Pass Blocking Matchups
Kirk Cousins, Minnesota Vikings (at Panthers)
Vikings projected pass block win rate rank: 22nd
Panthers projected pass stop win rate rank: 4th
Carolina's pass rush is an issue for opposing offenses, and I expect that to continue to be true in Week 6. Haason Reddick and Brian Burns both are in the top-12 in PRWR at edge.
The good news for Minnesota is that right tackle Brian O'Neill has been solid (18th in PBWR at tackle). Rashod Hill at left tackle has not, though Christian Darrisaw got some playing time and performed well in a limited sample. If the Vikings go with Darrisaw, that could be an improvement.
The bad news for the Vikings is that the interior of their line is weak. Panthers defensive Morgan Fox has put together a very strong 18% pass rush win rate from the interior in limited playing time this season, though that has fallen way off over the last two weeks from where he was.
Sack Watch
Dawuane Smoot, Jaguars (vs. Dolphins)
Both Dolphins tackles - Liam Eichenberg and Jesse Davis, at the moment - are a problem, each ranking in the bottom 10 of pass block win rate at the position. Though Smoot appears set to mostly face Davis, who has been a little better than Eichenberg, I'm still opting for him over the bigger name of Josh Allen. Smoot ranks 21st in pass rush win rate at edge while Allen is down at 46th. Allen's pass rush get off -- the time it takes to cross the line of scrimmage when pass rushing -- is way down this year, from 0.87 seconds in 2020 to 1.07 this season.
DeForest Buckner, Colts (vs. Texans)
Guard Max Scharping, whom Buckner should mostly face on Sunday, has been roughly average at his position in pass protection this season. He's not the reason why this is an excellent matchup; it's the quarterback behind him. Davis Mills is taking sacks at an incredibly high 10.3% rate, and the Colts ought to be winning this game big, which only encourages more sack opportunities. Buckner has been OK this season, with one sack and a pass rush win rate that ranks 22nd among interior defenders, but has a big opportunity this weekend.
Danielle Hunter, Vikings (at Panthers)
As expected, Darnold's high sack rate has mostly stuck with him in Carolina. To be fair, the Panthers' offensive line is brutal, ranking 31st in pass block win rate. Depending on Cameron Erving's injury Hunter should face either Taylor Moton -- who has struggled in pass protection this year despite being strong in the past -- or rookie Brady Christensen.