Over the summer months at ESPN, I've taken part in many types of fantasy football mock drafts -- PPR scoring, non-PPR, 10- and 12-team leagues and even 2-QB formats. Like every fantasy manager, I have developed my favorite targets in certain rounds throughout the draft based on volume, offensive scheme and scoring upside. Los Angeles Rams wide receiver Cooper Kupp is on this list, and at WR20, I'm getting really good value here, too.
Below are some of the top players on my draft board for the 2021 fantasy season, from Kupp and the wide receivers, to the quarterbacks, running backs and a New England Patriots free-agent pickup who could produce TE1 numbers. Both vets and rookies are in the mix here, along with their current ADPs and season projections from ESPN's Mike Clay.
Editor's note: Baltimore Ravens running back J.K. Dobbins was originally part of the list below, but he has since been taken out due to his season-ending ACL injury.
Quarterbacks
Russell Wilson, Seattle Seahawks
Current ADP: QB7
Mike Clay's 2021 projections: 4,078 yards passing, 31 touchdown passes, 11 interceptions; 79 carries, 425 yards rushing, 2 rushing touchdowns
We all know that Wilson's play slipped at the end of the 2020 season, but I'm betting on the Seahawks quarterback in a new offensive scheme -- using motion and movement -- that will create more defined, rhythm throws to wide receivers DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett.
Since 2017, Wilson has thrown 15 more touchdowns than any quarterback in the league, with multiple touchdown throws in 46 of his 64 games during that span, according to ESPN researcher Kyle Soppe. Plus, in today's NFL, I'm going to target a quarterback who brings a rushing element to the lineup. That's Wilson, who averaged a career-best 6.2 yards per carry last season due to his high-end second-reaction ability. And with an ADP of QB7, I can stick to my script on waiting for a quarterback to draft.
Current ADP: QB16
Clay's projections: 3,393 yards passing, 18 touchdown passes, 12 interceptions; 96 carries, 496 yards rushing, 4 rushing touchdowns
Yes, veteran Andy Dalton is slated to start the season at quarterback for the Bears. He's a ball distributor who can function like a point guard in Matt Nagy's offense. However, I've been targeting Fields (who is rostered in only 38.6% of ESPN leagues) late in drafts due to the playmaking ability he brings to the position -- both as a runner and thrower -- which will ultimately elevate the rookie to the starting spot in Chicago this year.
Over the past decade, the top 10 rookie quarterback seasons all featured players who averaged over 2.5 fantasy points per game in rushing totals. Fields will see volume as a runner on designed carries, and we know he can create outside of structure once he gets to the edge of the pocket based on the preseason tape. Plus, with his deep ball accuracy, Nagy can scheme shot play throws for the rookie. Set him up off boot, play-action and max-protection to create explosive plays over the top. I'll take Fields here on the back end of my roster over a using a late-round flier on another rookie wide receiver who won't see enough consistent volume to crack the lineup.
Running Backs
Najee Harris, Pittsburgh Steelers
Current ADP: RB11
Clay's projections: 259 carries, 1,117 yards rushing, 8 touchdowns; 49 receptions, 372 yards receiving, 2 touchdowns
I'm all-in on Harris as a volume runner -- with pass game upside -- in a new Steelers offensive system that will use both pre- and post-snap movement, with misdirection, to create daylight for the rookie as a ball carrier. Harris totaled over 230 touches, and 6.4 yards per touch, in each of his final two seasons at Alabama. Yes, there is a major jump in competition (and game speed) at the NFL level. We know that. But Harris can handle the workload. And, in Pittsburgh, where a running back saw 240-plus touches in six straight seasons from 2013 to 2018, the Steelers want a true No. 1 back.
I mentioned the pass game above, and I really think that fits here with Harris as an option for quarterback Ben Roethlisberger on swings, screens and wheels, plus the unders/checkdowns that will add to the rookie's totals. In 2020, 17 of the top 20 fantasy running backs saw more than three targets per game. I expect that with Harris, who is in a position to produce RB1 numbers this season.
Trey Sermon, San Francisco 49ers
Current ADP: RB39
Clay's projections: 129 carries, 570 yards rushing, 4 touchdowns; 19 receptions, 150 yards receiving, 1 touchdown
Sermon is one of my top sleepers due to Kyle Shanahan's system. He's a decisive, downhill runner who can shed tacklers at the point of attack. That fits with the 49ers, who rank No. 4 in fantasy running back points per game since 2017, while also averaging a league-high 2.82 yards per carry before first contact during that stretch.
We know that Sermon starts off his rookie season in a pretty crowded running back room in San Francisco. However, given his current ADP, I can land Sermon late in drafts as a bench player who has the ability to elevate the 49ers' depth chart this season as a volume ball carrier. And with enough receiving traits to impact the screen game under Shanahan, Sermon gives me some PPR value also.
Wide Receivers
Keenan Allen, Los Angeles Chargers
Current ADP: WR9
Clay's projections: 104 receptions (153 targets), 1,105 yards receiving, 7 touchdowns; 2 carries, 13 yards rushing
One of only two players with 90-plus receptions in each of the past four seasons (along with DeAndre Hopkins), Allen is my go-to wide receiver in PPR formats. You can bet on the target volume, the high-level route running and the veteran consistency (1.4% drop rate in 2020).
Remember, Allen is one of the league's best at creating separation within the route tree. He's nuanced and detailed, which creates open throws for quarterback Justin Herbert, who has the physical tools to target Allen on isolation routes or on schemed throws that attack all three levels of the field. And with the expected growth from Herbert in his second pro season -- both inside and outside of the pocket -- I can trust Allen in my WR1 slot.
Cooper Kupp, Los Angeles Rams
Current ADP: WR20
Clay's projections: 92 receptions (134 targets), 1,074 yards receiving, 6 touchdowns; 4 carries, 25 yards rushing
With quarterback Matthew Stafford upgrading Sean McVay's offense, I believe Kupp can produce high-end WR2 numbers as a slot target this year. Over the past two seasons, when throwing to the slot, Stafford ranks eighth in pass rating and ninth in yards per attempt. And Stafford was also on target with 88.3% of his passes thrown under 10 yards last season, which meshes with Kupp's route tree.
Whether we are looking at the one-on-ones inside the numbers, or the scripted play-action concepts that give Kupp free access of the ball to get loose on shallows and crossers, the Rams slot man will see volume in one of the NFL's most heavily schemed pass games. While the scoring upside with Kupp doesn't jump off the page, I can get really good value here at WR20 in drafts for a prime target in PPR formats.
Darnell Mooney, Chicago Bears
Current ADP: WR55
Clay's projections: 62 receptions (101 targets), 761 yards receiving, 4 touchdowns; 4 carries, 22 yards rushing
Undrafted in 45% of ESPN leagues, Mooney has been a target for me in Rounds 14-15 of my mock drafts. There's upside here given Mooney's vertical stretch ability (which will mesh with Fields' deep ball accuracy). Think about this: In Weeks 1-8 last season, Mooney averaged 15.4 air yards per target, which was higher than Tyreek Hill, DK Metcalf and Calvin Ridley. Plus, per Next Gen Stats, Mooney's averaged depth of cushion -- 6.9 yards -- ranked third in the NFL of receivers with a minimum of 75 receptions.
Now, Mooney is still a developing player entering his second pro season, and with his smaller frame, he won't consistently win on contested throws. However, he can be schemed open on crossers/overs in the Bears' system, and we know the deep ball speed is there to threaten outside of the numbers on iso throws versus single-high coverage. Given his current ADP, there is excellent value here for Mooney as my WR3 in deeper leagues.
Tight Ends
Logan Thomas, Washington Football Team
Current ADP: TE7
Clay's projections: 67 receptions (102 targets), 717 yards receiving, 6 touchdowns; 4 carries, 18 yards rushing
With Clay projecting Thomas to see more than 100 targets, in an offense that should be much more aggressive with Ryan Fitzpatrick at quarterback, I'm looking at the Washington tight end as a middle-of-the-field target with red zone upside.
Last season, Thomas ran a route on 87.6% of Washington dropbacks, which is more than we saw from Darren Waller in Las Vegas (82.2%). He can flex to the backside of 3x1 sets as an isolation option into the boundary, with the play-action passing game creating schemed targets inside the numbers. Plus, with Fitzpatrick's fearless throwing style, Thomas could also see more vertical opportunities in 2021, producing midtier TE1 numbers.
Jonnu Smith, New England Patriots
Current ADP: TE13
Clay's projections: 56 receptions (85 targets); 594 yards receiving, 4 touchdowns; 2 carries, 10 yards rushing
I'm targeting Smith as an upside TE1 due to his receiving traits, formation versatility and overall fit in a Patriots offense that will utilize two-tight end sets. While fellow tight end Hunter Henry will see targets on middle-of-the-field throws this season in New England, let's focus on Smith as a movable piece in an offense that lacks juice at the wide receiver position. That means seeing Smith removed from the core of the formation, or being utilized on pre-snap motion, to create both matchups and schemed opportunities.
Last season with the Titans, Smith ran a route on only 58.3% of dropbacks, yet he totaled eight touchdowns. And his 5.6 yards per reception after the catch ranked fourth in the NFL, ahead of Travis Kelce. With his physical makeup at the position, Smith can be deployed in New England as a seam stretcher, quick-game target out of empty sets and as a viable option in the low red zone. And, at TE13, I can wait until the later rounds to land a starter in my lineup.