Football statistics are extremely hard to predict, but history continues to show that projecting touchdown regression to the mean is significantly easier than you might imagine.
During the 2009 to 2019 seasons, there were 129 instances in which a wide receiver or tight end scored fewer than five touchdowns on 50-plus offensive touches before managing at least 50 touches the very next season. Of those 129 instances, 94 (72.9%) scored more touchdowns the next season.
Focusing on the 41 players in that group who scored fewer than three touchdowns during the first season, 32 (78.0%) scored more touchdowns the next season. Of the 14 who scored either one or zero touchdowns, 11 (78.6%) found the end zone more often the next season. Jason Avant (2010-11 and 2011-12) and Danny Amendola (2018-19) were responsible for the three exceptions.
A hefty 25 WR/TEs scored fewer than five TDs on 50-plus touches last season, and notables with fewer than three scores included George Kittle, Evan Engram and Jakobi Meyers. We see similar results if we run this test on running backs. There are 52 instances in which a back failed to eclipse seven touchdowns on 200-plus touches before managing 200 again the next season. Of those 52 instances, 42 (or 80.1%) scored more touchdowns the next season. Interestingly, there were four backs who failed to reach four touchdowns in the first season but each scored at least six times the next season. The average second-year touchdown total was 8.5!
In 2020, Frank Gore (2 TDs on 203 touches), Clyde Edwards-Helaire (5 TDs on 217 touches), and James Conner (6 TDs on 204 touches) were notable TD underperformers on 200-plus touches at RB.
If you skipped all that, or just tuned out while scanning over the math, the point here is simple: NFL players tend to bounce back -- often in a big way -- when they post an unusually low touchdown number and see similar playing time the following season.
In this piece, I'll be referencing OTD, which is a statistic that weighs every carry/target and converts the data into one number that indicates a player's scoring opportunity. Put another way, it's how many touchdowns a league-average player would've scored with the exact same opportunity as the player shown.
A careful examination of each of the below player's 2020 usage tells us we should expect an increase in scoring production this season. Be sure to also check out the list of players who will score fewer touchdowns this season.
Note that this study is limited to regular-season rushing and receiving data.
Clyde Edwards-Helaire, RB, Kansas City Chiefs | 2020 TDs: 5 | 2021 projected TDs: 10
"CEH" was one of fantasy's biggest busts relative to ADP last season and a lack of TDs were partially to blame. Every back who touched the ball at least 205 times scored at least eight TDs last season ... except CEH, who scored five on 217 touches. The 2020 first-round pick (in fantasy and reality) is proof that landing with a great offense isn't a free pass to the end zone, but he's also a strong candidate for a massive rebound in his second season.
Ezekiel Elliott, RB, Dallas Cowboys | 2020 TDs: 8 | 2021 projected TDs: 12
Elliott ranked fifth in the NFL in touches and tied for first in carries inside the 5-yard line last season, which helped him to an expected TD total of 13.2 (fourth highest). Despite the generous usage, Elliott was held to a career-low eight TDs. Elliott has ranked top five at RB in snaps, carries, touches and routes each of the past three seasons and is likely to find the end zone significantly more often in 2021.
Darrell Henderson, RB, Los Angeles Rams | 2020 TDs: 6 | 2021 projected TDs: 11
This would've been Cam Akers, but the second-year back tore his Achilles, which promotes Henderson to lead duties. Like Akers, Henderson was unlucky in the TD department last season, scoring six times despite a 7.8 OTD. He ranked 34th at running back in touches, but 16th in carries inside the 5 (nine). Henderson is now the lead back in a Sean McVay offense that ranks third in rush TDs (79) and second in carries inside the 5-yard line (99) during his four seasons with the team.
Robby Anderson, WR, Carolina Panthers | 2020 TDs: 3 | 2021 projected TDs: 5
Anderson finished eighth at WR in targets and receptions, but 60th -- yes, 60th -- in touchdowns. He easily hit career-high marks in targets (136), receptions (95) and yardage (1,096), but was limited to seven end zone targets and three scores, both of which were his lowest totals since 2016. Even in his role as a short-range target, we should expect more touchdowns in Anderson's future.
Evan Engram, TE, New York Giants | 2020 TDs: 2 | 2021 projected TDs: 4
Sixty players handled 85-plus targets last season. Engram was the only one of them who didn't catch at least two TDs (0.9% TD rate). Engram ranked top five at TE in targets (110) and receptions (63), but caught one TD and ran for another on one of six carries. Engram isn't used much near the goal line (seven TDs and nine end zone targets over the past three seasons), so while we should expect some regression to the mean, don't expect a huge boost.
Michael Thomas, WR, New Orleans Saints | 2020 TDs: 0 | 2021 projected TDs: 5 (11.5 games)
Thomas' 2020 season was obviously disappointing, but did you realize he failed to score a single touchdown? Yes, he missed nine games, but he was also unlucky in the scoring department when active. Thomas, who scored exactly nine TDs in three of his first four NFL seasons, is sure to see more than the career-low two end zone targets he saw in 2020 this upcoming season. Thomas is expected to miss a few games to open the season and no longer has Drew Brees throwing him passes, but we can still expect the veteran receiver to land closer to his career output in the scoring department.
Austin Ekeler, RB, Los Angeles Chargers | 2020 TDs: 3 | 2021 projected TDs: 7
The 5-foot-9, 195-pound Ekeler hasn't been a consistent TD scorer throughout his career, but he was still below expectations last season. During nine weeks in which he played in full, Ekeler ranked fourth in the NFL in touches (167), but 74th in touchdowns. Granted he handled only two carries inside the 5 and his expected TD total (4.3) wasn't egregiously higher than his actual total, but note that Ekeler did exceed his expected total during each of his first three NFL seasons. That included 11 scores (8.2 expected) in 2019. The 26-year-old is primed for a boost in scoring rate in 2021.
Jakobi Meyers, WR, New England Patriots | 2020 TDs: 0 | 2021 projected TDs: 3
Meyers had the unfortunate distinction of leading the NFL in targets (82) among players without a single TD catch last season. Meyers, who did throw two touchdowns, saw only three end zone targets in the Cam Newton-led, run-heavy scheme. Meyers is entering his third NFL season and has yet to catch a touchdown on 122 career targets (3.8). While he may never be a high-end TD scorer, his fortunes will change in 2021 if he sustains a consistent offensive role.
Jerry Jeudy, WR, Denver Broncos | 2020 TDs: 3 | 2021 projected TDs: 5
Jeudy's rookie season wasn't overly inspiring, so it may surprise you to know that he ranked 21st at wide receiver with 112 targets. Eight drops (second most) and a 46% catch rate (second worst) led to poor efficiency and fantasy production, but the good news is that the Alabama product was busier than it may have seemed near the goal line. He registered eight end zone targets and his 4.3 OTD suggests he should've had an extra score or two. Expect a Year 2 leap.
George Kittle, TE, San Francisco 49ers | 2020 TDs: 2 | 2021 projected TDs: 6
Kittle is a very interesting one, as he has history working in his favor (as noted in the introduction to the column), but usage working against him. Despite a generous target share, Kittle has yet to clear seven end zone targets, a 5.8 OTD or five TDs in a single season. The soon-to-be 28-year-old scored only twice last season, which was actually above his expected mark of 1.3. That was thanks, in part, to only one end zone target in eight games. Nonetheless, Kittle's overall target volume and post-catch dominance (he's never finished lower than seventh in RAC) is sure to lead to a boost in touchdowns.
Others: Jalen Reagor, WR, Philadelphia Eagles; Devin Singletary, RB, Buffalo Bills; A.J. Green, WR, Arizona Cardinals; Jordan Akins, TE, Houston Texans; Myles Gaskin, RB, Miami Dolphins; Denzel Mims, WR, New York Jets; James Conner, RB, Arizona Cardinals