It's Week 14 of the NFL season. Week 13 brought us monumental upsets when Washington stunned undefeated Pittsburgh and the New York Giants shocked Seattle. Which just goes to show that any given Sunday, fantasy managers can win too. And it's playoff time. Never count out your team. Crazy things can happen. Matthew Berry's Love/Hate is here to help you negotiate the first round of the fantasy football postseason.
"Hello?"
"Hey. So ... I tested positive for COVID-19."
"Oh wow."
"Yeah."
I am on the phone with my parents.
Or my younger brother. Or my boss. Or Stephania Bell. Or my oldest son. Or my sister-in-law. Or one of my friends. Or my Fantasy Show producer. Or the producer of Fantasy Football Now. Or Field Yates. Or ESPN HR. Or Daniel Dopp. Or my next-door neighbor. Or my editor. Or my primary care doctor. Or ESPN's VP of production. I don't remember. They all bleed together. I had the same conversation last week a million times over.
I found it best to just get right to it and not try any small talk. Just let whomever I was talking to, right out of the gate, know that I had tested positive for the virus that, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, has claimed the lives of over 285,000 Americans.
"Hey. So ... I tested positive for COVID-19."
There's a pause, always a pause, and then the questions follow a familiar pattern.
How am I feeling? How did I get it? How's Beth? How are the kids? And while the questions come, the tone is the same. Quiet, hushed, serious, concerned. The unspoken words of the tone. "You're not, uh, you're not going to die, are you?"
I don't know.
I'm being asked a zillion questions about a virus that not only do I know very little about, everyone knows very little about. New information comes out every day, and there are definitely some bad actors out there trying to spread misinformation, which makes keeping up with the most accurate and latest information a challenge.
What does this mean for my family? For my job? For my health?
I don't know. And as someone who has made a living of research, of stats and probabilities, "I don't know" is pretty %$&#^ scary, you know? But it's all I got.
Phone call after phone call ... "I don't know."
Here's the stuff I do know:
It all started with a text, an acquaintance of Beth and mine who was experiencing symptoms and was "contact tracing" to let everyone know, just to be safe. So, out of an abundance of caution, call in at work. We notify the kids' school and pull them out, just in case. I start looking for a way to get myself tested. Finding a testing facility on short notice was its own ordeal, and while I won't bore you with the details, suffice it to say, my patience was tested long before I was.
My wife somehow manages to schedule a rapid test the next morning. I tag along with her, hoping I can talk my way into getting one with her at the same time. They are amenable, so there I am, as my wife and I watch each other get cotton swabs shoved up our noses. True love.
After about 45 minutes, we are asked to step into Room 2. My wife and I look at each other. We had seen others come in for their results and they were just handed a sheet of paper. But no sheet of paper for either of us. We needed to step in Room 2. And it's there the on-call doctor tells us what we'd feared. We have both tested positive.
Over 15 million cases across the country, and here in Connecticut, where I live, we are now two of the 19,504 new cases over the last seven days. We are now a statistic.
My wife and I are staring at each other, the reality starting to hit, as the doctor is telling us what to expect. He needs to report our positive diagnosis to the state board of health, we need to quarantine, obviously, for 10 days, and there's no drugs he can prescribe, but we should get some Tylenol and Robitussin, he suggests.
He asks about our symptoms, which are mild for both of us. For me at the time, I have a runny nose, a cough and a scratchy throat. My temperature is fine, I still have my sense of taste and smell, and I have no issue breathing.
The doctor nods. He tells me that he has seen a lot of cases. Sometimes, the people have no symptoms. Sometimes, the people have mild symptoms and then after two weeks or so, they're totally fine. And sometimes, he says, people are fine for the first 12 days and the next day they are in the hospital with a tube stuck down their throat.
"I don't know," he says.
There are those three words again. He hands us our test results and some paperwork and tells us someone will call to check in on us and to contact them if our symptoms get worse.
Beth and I shuffle silently out of the office, stunned and speechless. On the car drive home, we start making the calls. Over and over again, the same conversation, with all the important people in our lives.
How am I feeling? How did I get it? How's Beth? How are the kids?
Early this week, I tested positive for COVID. I am experiencing minor symptoms & continue to isolate at home while I recover. I consider myself extremely fortunate.
— Matthew Berry (@MatthewBerryTMR) December 5, 2020
I won't be on #FFNow tomorrow but I look forward to returning to my normal schedule soon. Love you all.
People are kind and concerned and say all the right things, but having to make that call, over and over again, saying "I have tested positive for COVID" and then hearing the silence, is just awful. I'm not trying to minimize the awfulness of the many other aspects of COVID-19, but just ... it's one thing to sit there with your own knowledge, you know? But having to repeat it, over and over again, is so incredibly depressing and demoralizing and awful, I can't take it.
I don't know how to describe it, really. I feel like I'm letting people down when I tell them, worrying them, making them worry about themselves as well as me, that I have somehow done something wrong, even though I know that's not true. My kids call me "Corona Cop" because I'm so stringent about everyone wearing masks, washing hands, not letting people come inside, etc., etc.
Back to the car ride home and first and foremost, for us, of course, is what to do with our kids. I'm not going to get into how we decided to handle our children, their health or anything like that other than to just say they are safe and healthy, thank goodness.
And so the quarantine began. And while my symptoms got a little worse during quarantine before getting better -- headaches and chills at night were added to the cough, nose and throat issues -- if this were any other year, I probably wouldn't have thought much of it beyond just a bad winter cold. Same for Beth.
So physically I ended up fine, and I'm very grateful for that, but mentally? Man, this messes with you. Basically cut off from the world in many ways, thinking dark thoughts, it was a challenge for me. But it was during that dark 10 days or so, away from everyone, worrying about my health, my family, my future and going to bed every night not knowing if tomorrow would be the day I woke up in a hospital with a tube down my throat, that I finally found something I only thought I knew.
That I was loved. Incredibly lucky and loved.
Other than the initial flurry of calls to people who needed to know, I had kept it quiet. But after missing episodes of the podcast and The Fantasy Show on ESPN+ and knowing I would miss last week's Fantasy Football Now, I had been getting a lot of questions about where I was. So I wanted to just let folks know what was going on. When you announce something like this, you are never sure how people will react to you. Social media being what it is these days, I braced for the worst.
And I couldn't believe the incredible outpouring of love, concern and well wishes. Friends upon friends, including many I hadn't talked to in years. So great to reconnect -- co-workers, NFL coaches, readers and listeners. People whom I've known for a long time and people I've never met. So many emails, texts, DMs and comments on social media. It took me a few days to respond in some way to most of them and there's probably a few emails and Instagram DMs I'm not going to find time to respond to, but know that I read every single one and it meant so very much to me.
Kind, uplifting, thoughtful, they all brought a smile to my face. Loved them all but a special shoutout to Katie Nolan, who texted an incredibly sweet note but then added, "Silver lining: When you beat this thing you can use it as proof that you're not an old man yet!" Made me laugh very hard. You're the best, Nolan.
I can't tell you how many people I heard from who had gone through something similar themselves or had someone in their life currently dealing with it. Awful stuff. I recognize I am insanely lucky and that many have an experience much worse than me, but as all of us deal with this going forward in some way in their life, just know this:
When you are frightened and scared, it's an amazing thing to know you are not alone.
Thank you.
Love you all.
Let's get to it.
Quarterbacks I love in Week 14
Justin Herbert, Los Angeles Chargers, vs. Falcons
It took a few weeks to take effect, but Herbert finally played like his new haircut on Sunday, putting up a season/career-low 4.3 fantasy points in the 45-0 debacle against the Patriots. Belichick vs. rookie QBs continues to be undefeated. So while you might be gun-shy (and I get it), I think Herbert bounces back this week. Is that because he has huge talent and even the greats have bad games now and then? Sure. Yeah. Partly. Maybe. But it's mainly because Herbert gets to face the Falcons this week. Now, they're playing a little better recently, but not THAT MUCH better. Atlanta gives up the third-most passing yards per game on the season, and quarterbacks with 33-plus pass attempts against them this season average 24.2 fantasy points. Herbert is averaging 41 attempts this year. If you survived the Herbert of Week 13, your reward will be Week 14 Herbert.
Tom Brady, Tampa Bay Buccaneers, vs. Vikings
Brady can be defeated by just two things: Eli Manning and a strong pass rush. This game will have neither. In addition to giving up the fifth-most passing touchdowns this season, Minnesota ranks 25th in overall pressure rate and 29th when the Vikings are not blitzing. Brady had a lot of time to rest on his bye week. He'll have almost as much time Sunday to stand in the pocket and deliver the ball to his multitude of star pass-catchers. And volume shouldn't be a problem either as Brady has at least 38 pass attempts in six straight games, including 40-plus in four of those. The Vikings are giving up two touchdown passes a game this year (tied for fifth most) and I say Brady gets at least two as a top-8 play this week in a game with an over/under north of 50.
Ben Roethlisberger, Pittsburgh Steelers, at Bills
Yes, Roethlisberger just lost at home to the Washington Football Team, but he's still on the Love list this week. The Washington game has nothing to do with it, I just wanted to force my team knocking off the NFL's last undefeated into the column. Anyway, the fact the Steelers can't run is good news for us, bad for the salt baths Ben's elbow probably has to take after every game. Roethlisberger has at least 46 pass attempts in four straight games, and even with James Conner potentially returning to action, Ben will once again chuck it up a ton Sunday night against the Bills, including when they get in close. The Steelers rank sixth in red zone pass percentage in that time frame. I mean, the Steelers' pass-catchers have to catch at least some of those passes, right? Possibly? Hopefully? If they do, full speed ahead for Ben as, over their past four games, Buffalo is giving up the fifth-most fantasy points per game to quarterbacks. Yeah, the Bills' defense just isn't as fearsome as my Football Team's, but whose is?
Others receiving votes
Ryan Tannehill is now QB7 on the season. I know, still almost no one wants to admit Tannehill is for real, but QB7 is QB7. Fine, whatever ... just play him as a matchup dependent QB this week, OK? The Jaguars have allowed at least 250 passing yards and multiple touchdown passes in six straight games. ... You want to avoid playing running backs against the Bucs if you can, but quarterbacks are another story. Over Tampa's past four games, opposing quarterbacks are averaging 26.5 fantasy points. Meanwhile, Kirk Cousins has at least 21 fantasy points and 300 passing yards in three in a row. Also, I am playing against Cousins in the playoffs in two of my most important playoff games this week, so YOU KNOW he is going off. ... Tom Brady, Ben Roethlisberger, now Philip Rivers, it's going to be a great week for quarterbacks who remember life before the internet. Over the past four weeks, Rivers is averaging 294 yards and two touchdown passes per game. Quietly a top-10 QB in points per game during that stretch, Rivers should reach those numbers again versus a Raiders team that has given up multiple passing touchdowns in each of its past three games. ... Matthew Stafford and the Lions are heavy underdogs against the Packers in a game with an over-under of 55. With over 40 pass attempts in each of his past two games, Stafford's fantasy points might come in garbage time, but garbage time fantasy points count all the same.
Quarterbacks I hate in Week 14
Kyler Murray, Arizona Cardinals, at Giants
Murray hasn't had more than five rushes in any of his past three games. That wouldn't be so bad if he was putting up numbers with his arm, but he has less than 200 passing yards in each of the past two weeks. It's hard to see that changing against a Giants defense giving up just 9.9 fantasy points per game to quarterbacks over the past four weeks, a list that includes Russell Wilson. And, uh, Brandon Allen, Carson Wentz and Alex Smith. But hey, they stopped Wilson! Look, Murray single-handedly got a lot of fantasy teams to the playoffs and you probably don't have a better option (I still have Murray as a top-12 play), but just realize these days he's gonna need a lot of help from the rest of your team to get them through the playoffs. That's right, it's probably time to give a motivational speech to the rest of your fake team to fire them up.
Cam Newton, New England Patriots, at Rams
Newton has fewer than 100 passing yards in each of his past two games. His value, even more than it used to, comes from his legs. But in games in which Newton doesn't have MULTIPLE rushing touchdowns this season, he's averaging just 12.5 fantasy points. Do you really think he'll have multiple rushing scores against the Rams? Remember, a week ago Aaron Donald and friends didn't let Kyler Murray break even a single run of more than 7 yards. And the Rams give up only 2.8 red zone drives per game this season, meaning Newton should see fewer scoring opportunities than usual Thursday night. I have Cam outside my top 15.
Running backs I love in Week 14
James Robinson, Jacksonville Jaguars. vs. Titans
I saw a lot of folks down on Robinson, saying he was a "sell high" due to a bad playoff schedule. Well, that certainly isn't the case this week as he gets a Titans defense that has allowed a rushing touchdown to a running back in three of the past four games and is bottom 10 in fantasy points per game allowed to the position in that same span. But Robinson's inclusion here is more about, well ... Robinson. He's one of the few consistent fantasy performers in 2020, and this from an undrafted rookie running back in one of the NFL's lowest-scoring offenses. Robinson, RB4 on the year, has at least 94 scrimmage yards in six straight games, including at least 24 touches in five of those. Here's to you, Mr. Robinson. Fantasy managers love you more than you will know.
David Montgomery, Chicago Bears, vs. Texans
I advised you to hold your nose and play David Montgomery last week in a good matchup against the Detroit Lions and how did that work out? The Bears back posted a season-high 27.1 fantasy points. So keep holding your nose -- feel free to switch hands if you're tired -- this week as the run of good matchups continues for Montgomery. Houston has given up the most rushing yards and the second-most rushing touchdowns to running backs this season. And the Texans are also giving up the second-most fantasy points per game to the position, both on the season and over the past four weeks. Montgomery, who now has over 100 scrimmage yards in three of his past four games, is a top-10 play for me in Week 14.
Ezekiel Elliott, Dallas Cowboys, at Bengals
I get it, I get it. Just RB25 on a FPPG basis since Dak Prescott was lost to injury, he has only one touchdown in that time frame. And the Cowboys' offensive line continues to be, ahem, an injured work in progress. Zeke also showed up on the injury report this week as, at the time of this writing, news out of Dallas suggests Zeke probably will not practice much this week. And yet, here I am, recommending Zeke. If you're in the playoffs it's probably in spite of Zeke not because of him, but I expect him to play (he never has missed a game due to injury in his career), I thought he looked like, well, Zeke the past two weeks, and the volume is certainly there. At least 20 touches in four of the past five, I was excited about his pass-game usage vs. Baltimore last week (four catches), and no team gives up more yards after contact to RBs than the Cincinnati Bengals. In Andy Dalton's #revengegame, the Boys are actually favored, so gimme Zeke as a top-12 play this week.
Christian McCaffrey, Carolina Panthers, vs. Broncos
The super obvious consensus No. 1 RB this week, I'm just putting him here because it has been so long since our King has played, I'm just excited to write his name down again. Assuming (always a risk!) he plays this week, you have to be thrilled you somehow survived this far and now you get him for the first round in the playoffs against a Broncos defense that has given up the fourth-most fantasy points per game to running backs over the past four weeks. Christian McCaffrey is back. Happy holidays.
Others receiving votes
The Wayne Train. The House of Wayne. The Gallman, The Gallmyth, The Galllegend. OK, maybe Wayne Gallman has yet to achieve a good nickname, but he's getting there. At least 13 fantasy points in six straight games, this week No Pain No Wayne gets an Arizona defense that has given up multiple rushing touchdowns to running backs in each of the past two weeks. ... J.D. McKissic had season highs in receptions (10) and receiving yards (70) in Washington's win over Pittsburgh. Did I mention that game already? I did? That Washington won? Ah, well. Anyway, McKissic has been a solid flex play in PPR for most of the season. But if Antonio Gibson doesn't play this week, know that McKissic had over 70% of the snaps following Gibson's departure and is a very viable high end flex with legit RB2. ... J.K. Dobbins returned to action Tuesday night against the Cowboys and also returned to his role as the top back in that Baltimore committee. Eleven carries for Dobbins compared to 13 combined for Gus Edwards and Mark Ingram, Dobbins now has at least 70 rushing yards and a TD in each of his past two games. He's a solid flex play Monday night against the Browns.
Running backs I hate in Week 14
Miles Sanders, Philadelphia Eagles, vs. Saints
The Eagles' quarterback situation has received all the attention in Philadelphia, and understandably so. But from a fantasy standpoint, Sanders has been an even bigger disaster than Carson Wentz lately. Just 6.1 fantasy points per game over the past three weeks and a mere 18 total touches over the past two games -- primarily because, for reasons unknown, Philly has thrown him into a committee with Boston Scott and now Jordan Howard. Sanders has played less than 62% of snaps in each of his past three games. If all of that isn't bad enough, now Sanders gets the Saints, who have given up the fewest fantasy points and rushing yards per game to running backs since their Week 6 bye. Not to mention, New Orleans hasn't given up a single RB rushing touchdown over that span. Sanders is a risky flex play at best in Week 14.
David Johnson, Houston Texans, at Bears
Vintage David Johnson was a high-floor, high-ceiling fantasy back. He still has a decent floor, but his ceiling is so low, you crack your head on it and a big gash opens on your head and you start bleeding profusely and you pass out and wake up 12 hours later and someone has stolen your wallet and phone, and written a message in lipstick on the bathroom mirror that says they've also taken a kidney. Tale as old as time. Where was I? Oh yeah, Johnson has limited upside in 2020. He has only two games this season with more than 14 fantasy points as well as only two games with more than two receptions. I don't see him putting in a lofted ceiling this week against the Bears, who are giving up just 3.8 yards per carry to running backs over the past four weeks. I have Johnson outside my top 20.
Las Vegas Raiders RBs vs. Colts
If you remove the one game DeForest Buckner missed this season, here's how the Colts' defense has fared against running backs:
68 rushing yards per game
3.5 yards per carry
Only six rushing touchdowns allowed
That would put Indianapolis in the top five in all three metrics. Josh Jacobs, Devontae Booker, Jalen Richard, Bo Jackson ... I don't want to trust any Raiders running back this week against a Buckner-led Colts defense. OK, maybe Bo Jackson. But if Jacobs plays, he's probably less than 100 percent and more than likely it's Booker as the head of a committee that was unimpressive last week against the Jets (also a good run defense).
Pass-catchers I love in Week 14
Tyler Lockett, Seattle Seahawks, vs. Jets
Though I expect the Jets probably will do away with their strategy of leaving wide receivers in single coverage deep downfield while the rest of the defense blitzes at the worst possible time, I still think this is a great matchup for Lockett. The Jets give up the third-most yards per game and the fourth-highest catch rate to wide receivers. And they've given up 10 touchdowns to the slot, tied for most in the NFL. Lockett has been up and down all year, but if ever there was a week to be up, this is it.
Mike Evans, Tampa Bay Buccaneers, vs. Vikings
The Vikings have given up 19 touchdowns to wide receivers, second most in the NFL. Meanwhile, Evans has found the end zone in three straight games and in nine of 12 this season. Want more? I have it! The Vikings have given up the second-most yards and the fifth-most receptions on deep passes. Still want more? Evans is Tampa's primary deep threat. Even more? Well, too bad. That's all I have. But you know I like Brady here, and Evans has as good a chance at a score this week as any wide receiver this side of Davante Adams.
Corey Davis, Tennessee Titans, at Jaguars
Nostalgia for the '80s and '90 continues to dominate pop culture, which means 2020 needed a prominent Corey. Enter Corey Davis of the Titans. Written off after failing to break out through the first three seasons of his career, Davis is WR17 on a per-game basis this year and has double-digit fantasy points in nine of his 10 games. He also has multiple deep receptions in three of his past four games, while the Jaguars are giving up deep touchdown passes at the fourth-highest rate this season. As Corey Feldman would say: "Whoa."
Hunter Henry, Los Angeles Chargers, vs. Falcons
Prior to the Patriots debacle, Henry had at least 13 fantasy points in each of his past three games. By 2020 tight end standards, that's fantasy royalty. Considering that Atlanta has given up the second-most touchdowns to tight ends, and that Henry is tied for fourth at the position in end zone targets, you can start Henry with confidence this week. Well, with as much confidence as you can start any tight end not named Kelce or Waller.
Others receiving votes
If you took a wait-and-see approach on Keke Coutee having a big role in a Will Fuller V-less Texans offense, you've now seen it. A team-high 24% target share last week and 94% of his fantasy points came from the slot. That matters because the Chicago Bears, Coutee's Week 14 opponent, have given up the fourth-highest completion percentage to the slot over the past four weeks. ... Cole Beasley has at least 11 targets, 100 yards and a touchdown in two of his past three games. He could keep it going on Sunday night against a Steelers defense that just got picked apart by Alex Smith. Not sure if I've mentioned that game yet, but Washington won. Did you know that no other team has beaten Pittsburgh this year? HTTWFT! ... If you exclude the week when the Broncos didn't have a quarterback, Tim Patrick has averaged 15.1 fantasy points over his past four games. I think we can give him a pass on that game (even though he didn't actually get a pass in that game). With a real professional quarterback playing again in Week 14, Patrick should keep rolling versus a Panthers secondary that gives up the second-highest completion percentage on deep passes. ... I know, you already have given up on Mike Gesicki. I get it. But he had a nice game last week, and if you're streaming this week it's worth noting over the past four weeks, the Chiefs are giving up the second-most fantasy points per game to tight ends. ... Who needs vowels when you're getting targets? Cole Kmet set season highs in targets, catches and yards last week, and has a red zone target in each of his past two games. Tight ends who get at least four targets against the Texans this year average 12.4 fantasy points. He also has a ridiculous playoff schedule for those looking for streamable tight ends.
Pass-catchers I hate in Week 14
DeVante Parker, Miami Dolphins, vs. Chiefs
Parker is a completely different player with Tua Tagovailoa under center. With Ryan Fitzpatrick, Parker is targeted on 25.8% of his routes, has a 67.8% catch rate and averages 13.2 yards per catch. With Tagovailoa, those numbers drop to 21.7%, 57.1% and 9.4 yards. And THOSE numbers drop Parker from a solid WR2 to more of a risky flex play. Especially this week against a Chiefs team that gives up the second-fewest fantasy points per game to wide receivers. Kansas City also ranks top three in receptions and catch rate allowed on deep passes this season, meaning you're gonna need to bank on volume and hope for a score to make Parker the top-20 guy you've been counting on this week.
Dallas Goedert, Philadelphia Eagles, vs. Saints
Since Week 7, the Saints are giving up a league-low 3.8 fantasy points per game to tight ends, including zero touchdowns allowed to the position. Some of that is a result of who they've played, but they have faced Hayden Hurst twice as well as Rob Gronkowski in that stretch, so it's not entirely without merit. It's hard to know exactly what the Eagles' offense will look like with Jalen Hurts, but it's easy to avoid any tight end facing the Saints. You might still have to start Goedert just based on the nature of the position, but I wouldn't be expecting the same production we've seen from him the past few weeks, especially with Zach Ertz back and getting healthier.
Jarvis Landry, Cleveland Browns, vs. Ravens
Landry has been terrific over the past two weeks (21 targets, 16 catches, 2 TDs, 48.7 fantasy points), so I'm not saying you suddenly have to bench him, but I wouldn't expect those kind of numbers against the Ravens. Even after Tuesday's game, Baltimore has given up the second-fewest touchdowns and seventh-fewest yards to wide receivers this season. The Ravens are also giving up under 11 yards per reception to receivers, meaning Landry is unlikely to make many plays downfield. Maybe he gets there through volume alone, but I'm downgrading Landry this week against Marlon Humphrey & Co.
Deebo Samuel, San Francisco 49ers, vs. Washington
I love Samuel as a player, but the Football Team has given up both the third-fewest fantasy points and touchdowns to wide receivers this season. Washington also gives up the fewest yards per game to slot and the fourth-fewest yards after the reception, making this an even tougher matchup for Samuel. I mean, you saw how they limited big plays from Pittsburgh's receivers last week, right? By the way, Washington won that game. I can't remember if I mentioned it or not.
Matthew Berry, The Talented Mr. Roto, rarely mentions it, but he is a fan of the Washington Football Team.