Week 13 of the fantasy football season featured plenty of notable performances around the NFL on Sunday. What should we make of them? Matt Bowen and Tristan H. Cockcroft offer their analysis.
Darren Waller a matchup nightmare vs. the Jets
It's not often that a tight end scores 40-plus PPR fantasy points in a game, but that's what a matchup with the Jets' sorry secondary can do for a player. Waller's 45.0 was easily the most by any player from the 1 p.m. ET games, and was in fact the ninth-most by any tight end in a single game since at least 1950 (see the chart below for the full top 10). He simply lit up this secondary that has underperformed, dealt with injuries and ultimately shaken up its roster, as it was clear early on that this was going to be lofty point total. Waller scored 32.3 of his 45.0 points before halftime, breaking his previous career high (31.6, in Week 7 of 2019), thanks to a pair of touchdowns.
When he has been fully healthy and his Raiders -- especially quarterback Derek Carr -- have been at their best during the past year-plus, Waller has been an extremely reliable, top-three fantasy tight end, thanks to Carr's tendency to make more conservative throws and Waller's ability to make things happen after the catch; he's the position's leader in yards after the catch since the beginning of 2019 and has averaged nearly 6 yards after the catch per reception during that time. But this performance had even more to do with the Jets' issues in the secondary, which is something to tuck away if you're relying on members of the Seahawks' (their Week 14 opponent), Rams' (Week 15), Browns' (Week 16) or Patriots' (Week 17) receiving games during your fantasy playoffs. -- Cockcroft
Baker Mayfield passes all over the Titans
Mayfield was dialed in Sunday against a Titans defense that couldn't generate a pass rush, throwing for a season-high 334 yards -- with four touchdowns -- on his way to 29.46 PPR points. Part of that is scheme, as the Browns used play-action (with max protection) and boot concepts. That's how you give the quarterback a clean throwing platform -- especially on longer developing, deep-ball shots. But Mayfield also had time to throw on dropback concepts. That allowed the Browns quarterback to attack all three levels of the Tennessee defense. He was composed, and we didn't see him trying to over-throw the ball (which has been an issue over the past couple of games). However, with a matchup versus the Ravens' defense next week -- a unit that will heat up the pocket with pressure -- Mayfield will stay in the QB2 ranks. -- Bowen
He scored more fantasy points before halftime (29.5) than he had in 40 in 41 previous full games in his NFL career but finished right at that same number: 29.5 points. That was second-most only to his Week 7 total (29.8), but the frustration here is that Mayfield has averaged only 11.4 fantasy points in his other 10 games in 2020. At best, this makes him a matchups-driven flier for Week 16 against the sorry Jets secondary. -- Cockcroft
David Montgomery primed to finish season strong
I admit it, I've waffled a lot on Montgomery all season, seeing the great schedule he had and recommending him as a buy-low candidate in the early weeks, then cooling on him as he struggled through one of the more disappointing first nine weeks of any player in 2020. (Blame some of that on the Bears' playcalling, just to be completely fair.) Still, he has now set a career best in PPR fantasy points in back-to-back weeks, scoring 25.3 against the Packers in Week 12, and now 27.1 against the Lions, illustrating how much matchups can matter for a running back. Sure, it was aggravating to see Cordarrelle Patterson steal a goal-line carry from him in the early second quarter, but Montgomery did get the ball four yards from the goal line near the end of said quarter, converting the touchdown. Here's why all this matters: Montgomery still has the Texans (Week 14), Jaguars (Week 16) and Packers (Week 17) remaining on his schedule, with those three defenses about the best that any running back could ask for, and the Vikings (Week 15) matchup is an above-average one this year, too. Whether he excites you or not, if he's on your roster as your RB2 or matchups-dependent flex, you're not in nearly as bad shape as you might think. -- Cockcroft
Myles Gaskin a force in return
After a four-week absence due to a knee injury, Gaskin returned with the kind of performance that made it seem he hadn't missed a beat at all. Sure, opportunity abounded, with Salvon Ahmed (shoulder), Matt Breida (COVID-19) and DeAndre Washington (hamstring) sidelined, but that Gaskin handled 21 of 28 team rushing attempts while catching both of his two targets for 51 yards shows that he's still plenty capable of being this team's bellcow. Gaskin averaged 14.7 PPR fantasy points as the team's starter in Weeks 3-8, and he delivered 14.1 on Sunday. Other than the possibility that game flow could be an issue in Week 14 against the high-scoring Chiefs, Gaskin should be able to deliver a similar weekly number the rest of the way. -- Cockcroft
T.Y. Hilton finds the end zone again
Hilton posted season highs on Sunday in PPR points (25.0), receiving yards (110) receptions (8) and targets (11) in the Week 13 win over the Texans. While Hilton isn't a consistent threat to stretch the field vertically, he is playing with more juice. And, in this Colts offense, he can be schemed open on crossers versus both man and zone coverage. Those are staple throws for quarterback Philip Rivers in Frank Reich's offensive system. Hilton has now topped the 18-point mark in fantasy scoring in each of his past two games, and he gets the Raiders' defense in the first round of the fantasy playoffs next week. That is a zone-heavy unit, which will create opportunities for Hilton on middle-of-the-field throws, shallows, more. While we shouldn't another game of 10-plus targets for Hilton, the matchup here does open the door for Hilton to make the cut as a WR3 in deeper league lineups. -- Bowen
Just a neat fact to tack on here, Matt, but Hilton now has a pretty unreal track record of success at Houston's NRG Stadium. With his 25.0 PPR fantasy points on Sunday, five of Hilton's 19 games worth at least 25 points have come at that specific venue, including his top two (37.3, Week 6 of 2014; and 37.1, Week 9 of 2013), his fifth-best (34.5, Week 9 of 2017) and his 10th-best (28.9, Week 14 of 2018). -- Cockcroft
Justin Herbert shut down by the Patriots' D
Herbert's 4.36 PPR points was his lowest total of the season, as the rookie was taught some life lessons on Sunday by Bill Belichick and the Patriots' defense. New England mixed coverage looks, schemed pressure and made Herbert really work post-snap. Plus, with Keenan Allen being held to just 5-of-11 targets for 48 yards, the Patriots limited Herbert's top option in the route tree. We have to understand, however, that this can happen with rookies when they line up versus Belichick's system. Because of that, I still see Herbert as a QB1 in his next three matchups, versus Atlanta, Las Vegas and Denver, in the fantasy playoffs. -- Bowen
Quick-hitters
Taysom Hill, QB, New Orleans Saints: I thought Hill was very efficient as a thrower on Sunday in the Saints' win over the Falcons. Those are schemed concepts -- like the red zone touchdown pass to Jared Cook -- that give Hill defined reads. Plus, with the rushing yards on designed carries, Hill's 23.58 PPR points marked the second time (in three starts) that he has topped the 20 point mark. With a Week 14 matchup versus the Eagles, Hill will once again be a lower-tier QB1 in my ranks. -- Bowen
Jonathan Taylor, RB, Indianapolis Colts: The rookie's 22.5 PPR points was a season high, and his best since the Week 2 game versus the Vikings. Taylor did lead all of the Colts' running backs with 13 carries, and he caught a 39-yard touchdown pass on a wheel route out of the backfield -- a concept that we see every week from this Indianapolis offense. Taylor does get some favorable matchups versus the Raiders and Texans (again) in the first two rounds of the fantasy playoffs, where he will rank as a RB2. However, things get much tougher in Week 16 versus the Steelers. -- Bowen
Corey Davis, WR, Tennessee Titans: The 35.2 PPR points was a season high for Davis. Yes, game flow played a role here as the Titans had to go outside of their offensive structure (due to the scoreboard) with a more pass-heavy approach. However, let's look at the past four games for Davis -- and his fit in the Titans' offense. Including his Week 13 line -- 11 receptions for 182 yards -- Davis has now caught 24 of 28 targets for 432 yards receiving in the past four games. Remember, the Titans have a heavily schemed play-action passing game that will get Davis loose on deep overs/crossers. Plus, with opposing defenses working to limit A.J. Brown on in-breakers, quarterback Ryan Tannehill is finding Davis much more consistently as his secondary read. Given the recent run on production/volume here, and the very favorable Week 14 matchup versus the Jaguars' defense, Davis will jump into the back-end of the WR2 ranks. -- Bowen
T.J. Hockenson, TE, Detroit Lions: With nine more targets Sunday, and at least seven targets in five of his past six games, Hockenson is seeing consistent volume in the Lions' offense. And he's developing into an easy target for quarterback Matthew Stafford. There are route-running traits here for the former Iowa Hawkeye. With a Week 14 matchup versus the Packers, Hockenson will stay as a mid-tier TE1. -- Bowen
Mike Gesicki, TE, Miami Dolphins: Gesicki's 11 targets tied a season high, and his 23.8 PPR points were his second-highest total of the season. With rookie quarterback Tua Tagovailoa, the Dolphins' pass game is really focused on timing and rhythm concepts. That will cater to Gesicki on intermediate passes to the middle of the field and play-action targets, where the tight end can use his catch radius on throws outside of his frame. Plus, as we saw again Sunday on Gesicki's touchdown grab, the Dolphins will settle for one-on-one fade throws in the red zone. He's a safe bet as a TE1 next week in the matchup versus the Chiefs' defense. -- Bowen
Keke Coutee, WR, Houston Texans: The season-ending suspension of Will Fuller V made Coutee a popular pickup -- he was the second-most-added wide receiver (up 11.3% in the past seven days) behind only Deebo Samuel (up 21.3%) -- and, at least for Week 13, the decision seemed wise. Coutee scored a personal-best 22.1 PPR fantasy points, with the elevated usage you'd want to see as the fantasy playoffs approach: He played 74.2% of the Texans' offensive snaps, ran 37 routes and saw a team-high nine targets. Coutee's game lends a similar risk/reward label as Fuller once saw, but it's a plus to see him do this against a good Colts' defense, especially with a pair of solid defenses ahead in the Bears (Week 14) and Colts again (Week 15). There's a top-20 ceiling here, but slot him as more of a matchups-dependent, lower-end WR3. -- Cockcroft
The Eagles' offense will be in the spotlight all week, after rookie Jalen Hurts came in at quarterback during the team's second drive of the second half on Sunday. The result was 13 of the Eagles' 16 points, though Hurts mixed good and ill-advised throws in relief of Carson Wentz, with the statistics difficult to interpret due to the Packers' large lead at the time. Hurts, however, targeted tight ends Dallas Goedert and Zach Ertz only four times total in 12 attempts, and since those two are fantasy-relevant options at the position, both should suffer in the ranks slightly at least for Week 14 -- assuming, of course, that Hurts starts. Running back Miles Sanders, meanwhile, had only 10 carries and scored fewer than 10 PPR fantasy points for the third consecutive week. Considering the Eagles get the Saints' red-hot defense in Week 14, this looks like a team that should be completely avoided in Week 1 of the fantasy playoffs. -- Cockcroft
Cam Akers, RB, Los Angeles Rams: Injuries, limited opportunities and the solid early-season play of Darrell Henderson Jr. and Malcolm Brown caused Akers to be dropped in a large chunk of fantasy leagues over the course of the season. He found himself on free-agent lists in more than 70% of ESPN leagues as of a week ago, but the rookie has roared back with a pair of impressive outings that put him squarely back on the radar. After scoring 14.4 PPR fantasy points on nine carries in Week 12, he totaled 16.4 points on 22 touches on Sunday, against a Cardinals defense that has been pretty good against the run in 2020. In the process, Akers played 51% of the offensive snaps (51 of 79) and nearly twice as many as Henderson and Brown combined. It's a great sign as we head into the fantasy playoffs, and while it might make managers nervous to trust a player who only once before this had more than 10 touches in a game, Akers still has the look of the most explosive member of this backfield. He also has an above-average remaining schedule, with the Patriots, Jets and Seahawks, his next three opponents, all struggling at varying times in 2020 defending the run. -- Cockcroft