Week 12 of the fantasy football season featured plenty of notable performances around the NFL on Sunday. What should we make of them? Matt Bowen and Tristan H. Cockcroft offer their analysis.
Derrick Henry runs over the Colts
For the fourth time in the past 724 days, Henry enjoyed a PPR fantasy point total of greater than 35, his 38.5 pacing all players between the two Thanksgiving and seven Sunday 1 p.m. ET games. What's more, he did it against a Colts defense that, entering Week 12, hadn't allowed a score greater than 18.3 to an individual running back, although in this case he had the advantage of the Colts missing both defensive tackles Denico Autry and DeForest Buckner, both of whom are on the reserve/COVID-19 list. That Henry was able to capitalize upon the matchup bodes extremely well for the remainder of the season, as there might not be an individual player whose schedule favors him more. He'll face the Browns, Jaguars, Lions, Packers and Texans in the season's final five weeks, and while the Browns have kept running backs mostly in check in 2020, the other four rank seventh, first, third and second in terms of total PPR fantasy points afforded to the position this season. -- Cockcroft
Tyreek Hill races to a first quarter for the ages
One of the game's most talented wide receivers, Hill wrote his name into the history books in Week 12, scoring a best-by-any-player-in-2020 57.9 PPR fantasy points. It was the seventh-best single-game score by any wide receiver since at least 1950 -- see his ranking in the chart below -- and the largest point total by any player since Jamaal Charles scored 59.5 points in Week 15 of the 2013 season -- nearly seven years ago. Hill did it by getting off to a scorching start. He scored 39.5 PPR fantasy points in the first quarter of the game alone, thanks in large part to a pair of touchdowns greater than 40 yards in distance. That was also a historic total: It was the most points that any player has scored in the first quarter of a game this century, exceeding the 38.5 points scored by Lee Evans in Week 11 of the 2006 season. Hill added a 20-yard touchdown in the third quarter and, fittingly, he caught the first-down pass that wrapped up the Chiefs' 27-24 victory over Tom Brady and the Buccaneers. The performance easily vaulted Hill into the commanding lead at his position in PPR fantasy points for the season. Through 11 games, he has 260.1, which is more than 40 more than No. 2 Keenan Allen has (212.5), though Davante Adams (210.7) does have a chance to move into second place and narrow the margin in Sunday night's game. -- Cockcroft
Tristan, with four straight games of at least 25 PPR fantasy points -- in an offensive system with quarterback Patrick Mahomes that has answers to both zone and man coverage -- Hill's scoring upside makes him a weekly top 5 lock at the position. Today, it was the explosive play ability with Hill (and Mahomes), as Tampa simply couldn't match up here with cornerback Carlton Davis in single-high coverage. And Mahomes knew it, too. We saw the double-move, the deep crosser and the fade route. Three more touchdowns there, giving Hill a total of eight scores over the past four weeks. There's just so much explosive play ability here, with a quarterback who can rip it from the pocket or go off-schedule to dice up coverage schemes. -- Bowen
Kyler Murray posts lowest scoring game of the season
His quest to set the single-season record for fantasy points by a quarterback hit a setback in Week 12, as Murray scored 7.9 points, by far his worst output of 2020 and only 0.9 more than his career-worst of 7.0, set in Week 7 of his rookie 2019 season. It was an ugly game of quarterbacking on both sides, as the Patriots' Cam Newton scored 4.0 points on his own, done in by a pair of interceptions. Murray struggled to make plays, especially with his legs, as the Patriots forced him into 34 passing attempts but only five rushing attempts, a stark contrast to their Week 11 game against Deshaun Watson, who turned 28 passing and six rushing attempts into 31.4 fantasy points. It's of concern primarily because Murray now faces the Rams, a defense that only twice all season has allowed more than 17.6 fantasy points to an individual quarterback, but there's still no reason to panic if he's your QB1. Even with this stinker -- which will ruin his once-perfect year of 20-plus-point fantasy scores and "start"-worthy performances -- Murray has a whopping 291.6 fantasy points through 11 games, which is fifth-best by any quarterback through that many games of a season since at least 1950. Expect a statistical rebound, but be forewarned that this game indicated he has some lessons yet to learn at the NFL level. -- Cockcroft
Austin Ekeler already in form
In his first game back since Week 4, Ekeler registered 23.9 PPR points, showing no signs of the hamstring injury that put him on the shelf. Ekeler played some juice too, displaying that lateral agility, while catching 11 of a team-high 16 targets for 85 yards. Now, game flow played a role there as Justin Herbert attempted 52 passes, with the Chargers playing from behind in this one. However, with 25 total touches on Sunday, and the boost he brings to your lineup because of the receiving traits, Ekeler will be on that RB1/RB2 line moving forward -- even when Kalen Ballage returns from injury. Remember, Ekler can impact the pass game as a target out of the backfield or when flexed outside. And he becomes another option for Herbert in this system on screens, schemed matchups and higher-percentage balls underneath. -- Bowen
Taysom Hill is a force again
For the second consecutive week, Hill scored a pair of rushing touchdowns, becoming only the eighth different quarterback since 1950 to enjoy a streak of that length (Johnny Lujack, 1950 and 1951; Otto Graham, 1954; Billy Kilmer, 1961; Brian Sipe, 1974; Eric Hipple, 1981; Kordell Stewart, 1997; and Cam Newton, 2020). While Hill didn't do much else in the game, that was enough to fuel a 17.5-point performance, and it underscored his elevated statistical floor, making him look like a much more viable back-end/matchups QB1 as the fantasy playoffs approach. This wasn't the kind of game from which to draw many conclusions, but it's good to see Hill enjoying this level of success on the ground, especially with a favorable passing matchup ahead in the Falcons in Week 13. -- Cockcroft
Tristan, I agree on Hill as a matchup-dependent QB1 -- when the Saints get back to an NFL game plan. Look, Sean Payton's call sheet on Sunday, which featured 44 rushing attempts, was a direct reflection of the Broncos' quarterback situation. Yes, that included 10 carries for Hill, plus two rushing scores. When the Saints play the Falcons in Week 13, however, I expect Payton to roll out a balanced run/pass game plan that features defined pass reads for Hill, play-action throws and schemed verticals. And that's exactly what we saw from Hill in the Week 11 head-to-head matchup versus Atlanta, where he recorded 24.22 fantasy points. -- Bowen
Justin Jefferson climbs the rookie charts
With his third game worth at least 25 PPR fantasy points, Jefferson is quickly establishing his as one of the greatest seasons in history by a rookie wide receiver. His 26.0 points gave him 181.8 for the season, which is the seventh-most by any rookie wide receiver through his team's first 11 games on the schedule (since 1950). Jefferson now gets a dream matchup against the Jaguars, so he should continue to push himself up that list in Week 13. -- Cockcroft
I'll add some more here on Jefferson, because the tape is telling us that the rookie is a legit threat as a route runner -- in a system that can set him up. Remember, with the play-action passing in Minnesota, there will be coverage voids schemed open for Jefferson that lead to explosive plays. Plus, with his pro-ready traits, Jefferson can win isolated one-on-ones. And, like Tristan just mentioned, the matchup versus Jacksonville in Week 13 -- a defense that leans on single-high coverage -- should generate more high-level production opportunities for the rookie. -- Bowen
Quick-hitters
Deshaun Watson, QB, Houston Texans: The 33.12 PPR points on Thursday in the win over the Lions were a season-high for Watson, and the Texans quarterback has now posted back-to-back 30-plus point scoring weeks. We've talked about Watson recently here, and the development he has shown as a pocket thrower. That was the drill again versus Detroit. Timing, rhythm, anticipation. And I think he is playing the best football of his career as a thrower. With a Week 13 matchup versus the zone-heavy Colts' defense, Watson is a top-5 lock in the QB ranks. -- Bowen
Nick Chubb, RB, Cleveland Browns: Chubb posted 26.6 PPR points on Sunday in the win over the Jags and has now registered at least 19 carries -- with over 100 yards rushing -- in each of his past three games since coming off the IR list. The volume is really consistent here, and Chubb is seeing more touches than Kareem Hunt in Cleveland's run-dominant system. Plus, with higher-level running traits than Hunt, I see Chubb as a weekly RB1 lock in an offense that wants to limit the throwing volume of quarterback Baker Mayfield. -- Bowen
Deebo Samuel, WR, San Francisco 49ers: In his first game back on the field since Week 7, Samuel dropped a season-high 24.3 PPR points on a really good Rams defense. The 49ers wide receiver, who caught 11 of 13 targets for 133 yards, reminded us that he is in the discussion with AJ Brown and DK Metcalf as the most physical wide receivers in the league after the catch. That allows the 49ers, with quarterback Nick Mullens, to throw high-percentage passes that turn into explosive gains. In-breakers, shallows, plus the manufactured touches on fly sweeps. With a matchup versus the Bills in Week 13, I'll have Deebo in that WR2/3 range. -- Bowen
DeVante Parker, WR, Miami Dolphins: Parker saw a season-high 14 targets on Sunday, and his 19.9 PPR points were his best since Week 4. Yes, Parker had a very favorable matchup versus the Jets. That is a talent-deficient defense. However, I also see a higher fantasy ceiling for Parker when Ryan Fitzpatrick is at quarterback compared to rookie Tua Tagovailoa. Remember, the route tree with Tua is built on more defined reads/throws, while Fitz is going to be aggressive with the ball and take more risks as a vertical thrower. -- Bowen
Jarvis Landry, WR, Cleveland Browns: Landry went to work on a sub-par Jacksonville defense in Week 12, catching 8 of 11 targets for 143 yards and a score. That netted Landry a season-high 28.3 PPR points. However, with Landry topping the 10-point scoring mark for the first time since Week 7, how much stock do we put in this performance? Yes, the Browns will scheme up play-action shots for Landry, and Baker Mayfield can work the ball underneath in the quick game. But with such a run-heavy approach in Cleveland, plus Mayfield's inconsistent ball location, I want to see Landry's production in the Week 13 matchup versus Tennessee before elevating him to anything higher than a WR3. -- Bowen
The Las Vegas Raiders' offense: What a disappointing performance this was, against a Falcons defense that struggled to contain Drew Lock, Jerry Jeudy and Taysom Hill in their two games sandwiching a Week 10 bye. Running back Josh Jacobs and tight end Darren Waller, each of whom was started in 96.6% of ESPN leagues in Week 12, scored 5.4 and 6.3 PPR fantasy points, and quarterback Derek Carr, who was started in 32.9%, scored a hideous 0.6 points, which is 10 fewer than any other starting quarterback has scored against the Falcons all season. Granted, the Falcons have played better defense since replacing coach Dan Quinn following Week 5 -- their defense/special teams has averaged 7.3 points in six games since, compared to minus-1.6 with Quinn at the helm -- but it's not like they're one of the league's elite, and certainly the Raiders' offense should've been capable of more. It makes it tougher to trust Raiders skill-position players in Week 13, despite the favorable passing matchup against the Jets, and the team's schedule over the final four weeks doesn't inspire much confidence in fantasy otherwise: IND, LAC, MIA, @DEN. -- Cockcroft