Matchups play a huge part in fantasy football managers' start and sit decisions. When choosing between two (or more) similarly talented players, the decision often boils down to this: Which one has the best matchup?
We use that word -- matchups -- a lot. But what, exactly, constitutes a favorable or unfavorable matchup?
This is where the "Matchups Map" comes in. Each week, I'll provide a schedule-independent method to determine strength of positional matchups, using the most recent, relevant data. Check back for updated numbers each week, including matchups highlights at each position -- both favorable and unfavorable -- based upon those statistics. For these purposes, we will use PPR (point per reception) scoring.
"Adj. FPA," or adjusted fantasy points allowed, reflects how far above or below a player's average that defense held opponents at that position. A positive number means that the matchup is favorable; a negative number means it is unfavorable. This is a teamwide analysis, so a plus-5.0 Adj. FPA to running backs would mean that the defense afforded its opponents' entire running back corps five additional points on average, which should be kept in mind when evaluating running-back-by-committee approaches. All data is from the past five weeks' NFL action.
Finally, a caveat: Matchups are only one ingredient in my rankings formula. Not every favorable matchup should be exploited; not every unfavorable matchup should be avoided. To get the most complete recipe for whom to start and sit, consult my weekly rankings.
Quarterbacks
Favorable matchup: Derek Carr, Las Vegas Raiders (at Atlanta Falcons). He's one of the game's more accurate quarterbacks -- his 69.7% completion rate fifth best among qualifiers, 1.0% interception rate second best and 12.6% off-target rate fourth best, even if he's a somewhat conservative passer, evidenced by his 21st-ranked (out of 33) average depth of target (7.5 yards) and 24th-ranked 24% rate of throws at or behind the line of scrimmage. That's not a perfect match for the Falcons, as their defense rates close to league average on throws at or behind the line of scrimmage and held similarly (and arguably more) conservative passers Teddy Bridgewater (Week 8) and Taysom Hill (Week 11) to a combined 18.4 fantasy points passing on 46 attempts in the past four weeks. But what appeals here is the upside that a Falcons matchup presents. On opponents' throws at least 10 yards downfield, the Falcons have surrendered the second-most fantasy points per game (9.5), and noted "chucker" Drew Lock scored 29.2 points doing just that against them in Week 9. Carr isn't bad on deep throws; he just prefers not to make them. Considering the Falcons' tendency to give up the big play, not to mention the 37.4 pass attempts per game they're seeing from opponents (sixth most in the league), Carr should try a few deep throws, elevating his statistical ceiling into the mid-QB1 tier.
Unfavorable matchup: Taysom Hill, New Orleans Saints (at Denver Broncos). His 24.4 fantasy points in his first true NFL start at quarterback placed in the 79th percentile among 2020 starters, but it also potentially set up somewhat unrealistic expectations for future weeks. Hill didn't exactly capitalize on the Falcons' weak secondary, averaging a mere 6.6 yards on his throws and making a few erratic ones, and padding his fantasy stats with a pair of rushing touchdowns aided by the playcalling that caught the defense off guard. Hill's rushing performance underscored his statistical floor -- he's probably going to deliver you a weekly base of six to eight points with his legs, a la Josh Allen or Cam Newton -- and probably locked him into a top-15 ranking for as long as he remains the starter. The problem is that a Broncos matchup doesn't offer close to the upside that a Falcons matchup did, as the Falcons have allowed 0.55 fantasy points per pass attempt (second most), while the Broncos have allowed 0.40 (11th fewest). Hill needs another big rushing day, one like Newton had in Week 6 (15.6 of his 18.5 total points), to warrant your start.
Running backs
Favorable matchup: Duke Johnson, Houston Texans (at Detroit Lions). While his fantasy output has been ordinary, to say the least, since a concussion knocked David Johnson from the lineup only five minutes into the Week 9 game, Duke Johnson has very clearly been the Texans' running back of choice since. In that time, Duke Johnson has 40 of 43 rushing attempts by Texans running backs, 10 of 13 targets and has played 87% (144 of 165) of the team's offensive snaps, though he has only 27.2 PPR fantasy points to show for it. This week, however, he gets the most favorable matchup a running back could ask for -- the Lions, who have not only the past five weeks' most adjusted fantasy points added (11.5) but also the most for the full season (7.3). That the Lions' offense performed miserably in Week 11, and now plays on the short week, only bolsters Johnson's case for a midrange-RB2 fantasy output.
Non-Thanksgiving pick: Jonathan Taylor, Indianapolis Colts (versus Tennessee Titans). His role in the Colts' offense had seemingly shrunk from Week 8 to Week 10, as he played only 30% of their offensive snaps (62 of 209) while averaging 10 touches per game, but Taylor once again appeared part of their game plan in Week 11, as he played a backfield-best 53% of the snaps (39 of 74) and had 26 of the Colts running backs' 40 total touches. What's more, he looked like the part of a true three-down back, getting his season back on track with perfect timing, considering how fantasy-friendly this upcoming matchup is. The Titans, in the past four weeks, have allowed 22.8 PPR fantasy points to Giovani Bernard (Week 8), 18.5 to J.K. Dobbins (Week 11) and, in these teams' most recent meeting in Week 10, another 28.5 points to Nyheim Hines in a game in which Taylor was scarcely used. Expect a 50% snap share (or better) for the rookie in the rematch, giving him a legitimate RB2 statistical ceiling.
Unfavorable matchup: Damien Harris, New England Patriots (versus Arizona Cardinals). His role has expanded considerably in the past four weeks; despite a 39% snaps-played rate (102 of 261), he totaled 63 rushing attempts, five in goal-to-go situations, and 47.8 PPR fantasy points. The problem, however, is that for all of Harris' recent success, he's still a one-dimensional back, having run only 28 routes in nine career NFL games -- that's two fewer than what Kalen Ballage ran last week alone -- and that could be a problem in a game in which the Patriots might struggle to keep up on the scoreboard. Harris also has to deal with the likely return to action of Sony Michel, activated from injured reserve the day before the Patriots' Week 11 game but scratched for that contest, which means a potential time share on first and second downs. The Cardinals, by the way, have been rather effective against running backs in 2020, their 0.56 fantasy points per carry afforded to the position being 10th best in the league.
Wide receivers
Favorable matchup: DeVante Parker, Miami Dolphins (at New York Jets). The last time these teams met, in Week 6, Parker mustered only 6.5 PPR fantasy points on eight targets, while two other Dolphins wide receivers outscored him but none managed as many as 10 points. The Dolphins, however, attempted only 29 passes, well beneath the average of 37 the Jets have seen per game in 2020. In five weeks and four games since, the Jets have utterly collapsed against the pass: They've allowed seven performances of 15-plus PPR fantasy points and have an adjusted fantasy points allowed number that resembles that of the Seattle Seahawks in September. It's one of the reasons the team cut Pierre Desir following Week 10, but that move didn't really help clear up what has been a mess of a cornerback picture; in Week 11, Bryce Hall, Lamar Jackson and Arthur Maulet combined to allow 49.7 PPR fantasy points on 17 targets scattered across 130 coverage snaps. Parker should find plenty of openings in this secondary, with the strong matchup buoying his WR2 value even with quarterback Tua Tagovailoa having struggled last week.
Unfavorable matchup: A.J. Brown, Tennessee Titans (at Indianapolis Colts). An impressive effort on a 14-yard, fourth-quarter touchdown padded his 16.2 PPR fantasy point total in Week 11, but he has otherwise been disappointing in the past four weeks. During that time, he has three drops -- one apiece in Weeks 8-10 -- and has averaged 13.0 points on 6.8 targets. That included a 3.1-points-on-four-targets Week 10 against these very Colts, continuing what has been a career-long pattern for the sophomore wide receiver. With it, Brown has totaled 16.1 points on 13 targets in three career meetings with the Colts, and it's not the result of a specific one-on-one matchup. This defense has gotten good results by rotating Kenny Moore II, Xavier Rhodes and Rock Ya-Sin in coverage, and that's a game plan that should repeat in Week 12.
Tight ends
Favorable matchup: Robert Tonyan, Green Bay Packers (versus Chicago Bears). While it's unlikely that you'll need to dig deep at tight end in a week when all 32 teams are scheduled to play, there are leagues deep enough to require 15-plus positional starters and some fantasy managers might be in an injury- or depth-driven pinch. Tonyan stands out for Week 12 because the Bears' defense has one of the widest gaps between its performance defending wide receivers (minus-2.9 adjusted fantasy points allowed, 10th fewest in the league) and tight ends (7.1, the league's most), and his Packers have a wide receiver who might therefore draw more attention from cornerbacks Kyle Fuller and Jaylon Johnson. Something else to consider: The Bears have allowed 13 individual games worth at least 12.5 PPR fantasy points to these two receiving positions, and five of them came from tight ends.
Unfavorable matchup: Noah Fant, Denver Broncos (versus New Orleans Saints). As the Saints' defense has stepped up its performance during the past three weeks, one area in which it has been particularly stingy has been against tight ends. From Week 9 to Week 11, Rob Gronkowski, Jordan Reed and Hayden Hurst scored a combined 12.4 PPR fantasy points on 12 targets. In fact, Next Gen Stats had the Saints as affording the lowest rate of open receivers during that time span (5.9%). That's bad news for Fant, whose production has slipped in recent weeks, evidenced by his 21.8 PPR fantasy points on 15 targets the past three weeks. This would be a good week to keep the Denver tight end on your sidelines.