It's Week 12 of the NFL season, with a game football feast on Thanksgiving Day, including a key divisional matchups in the NFC East and the annual appearance of the Detroit Lions. Fantasy managers need to make sure they set their lineups accordingly, with plenty of time to make adjustments on Friday and Saturday. Matthew Berry's Love/Hate Week 12 is here to help.
To me, this week, among other things, is about reflection and, obviously, giving thanks. It comes about 11 months into 2020, by far the most difficult year many of us have faced in our lifetimes, and there are still tons of challenges ahead of us.
2020 has made many people confront their own mortality in a way they maybe haven't before, a process that I went through for the first time about three years ago. As you might remember, in September 2017 I had a really bad health scare. I wrote about it three weeks later, and in the column, I discussed the changes I was trying to make to my life, starting with my diet and schedule. Both, candidly, are works in progress. I'm better but, honestly, not as much as I should be.
The schedule is what it is these days, but podcast listeners notice I no longer do the Thursday show because I stay up all night on Wednesday writing this column. Where I can, I try to be smart with my schedule. That includes this week, as we have a truncated week due to the Thanksgiving holiday, with games starting at noon Thursday. Instead of trying to write an intro this week, I decided to rerun one of my favorite columns.
As I thought about everything going on in the world and thought about Thanksgiving, I appreciated that even the most optimistic among us might have trouble this year finding lots to be thankful for. But for me, on my list of things to be thankful for is that, well, I'm still here.
I chose this column to share this week to remind myself and hopefully others that as bad as it can sometimes get, there are still things to be incredibly grateful for. This column first appeared on Oct. 12, 2017:
"Oh, s---," I thought. "I'm having a heart attack."
It is three weeks ago today, at 1:17 p.m. ET, and I am standing behind the host desk in Studio B. We are taping an episode of The Fantasy Show, and there is a man kneeling behind me, holding a puppet.
And that's when I feel tightness around my heart. You know how sometimes you get heartburn, and after a moment or two, it just subsides? That's what I initially think it is, but then it keeps going and gets more painful. I'm being told in my ear that we need to set up for the next thing we're doing, a complicated dream sequence.
"Uh, gimme a minute here," I manage to get out.
I try to walk away from the desk, and after a few steps, I stumble. My producer, Ed, catches me, and suddenly everyone in the studio realizes this just got real. I am quickly ushered to a chair. Ed takes my suit jacket off and recoils as he puts his hand on the back of my shirt. It's soaked. I have broken out in a cold sweat.
I feel dizzy. Someone brings me an aspirin. And I, uh, I can't keep it down. I start dry heaving. There is basically nothing in my stomach (I didn't eat that morning), so I'm dry heaving. Over and over again. I can't stop. I can't control it. I look up to see some of my producers, surrounding me, looking worried as I keep heaving into a trash bag I've been brought. I see the studio crew in the background, staring at me. Because the only thing better than dry heaving repeatedly is dry heaving repeatedly in front of a bunch of co-workers. I feel dumb and humiliated, like some sick animal on the side of the road, as there are people in the back, just staring, but there's nothing I can do because it's at this point that I lose consciousness.
Soon after I come around, I am surrounded by campus EMTs, and they are telling me that an ambulance is on its way. I am mumbling to Ed, asking whether he can contact NFL Live and the meetings I have after that (I am supposed to do all that after this show), and he is smiling in a kind, fatherly way. "Stop it. We'll handle. Don't worry about it." Suddenly the ambulance is there. With a stretcher.
Instead of letting me climb onto it, they lift me onto it (more embarrassment), and I am quickly wheeled out of the studio into an ambulance, followed by Ed. He is told to sit in the front, and now I'm in the back of an ambulance all alone but for someone I just met two minutes ago. Mike the EMT, he tells me, all business and gruff as he starts shoving and pasting things into and onto my arms and chest, hooking me into I don't know what. I am half out of it at this point, and Mike the EMT is peppering me with questions. "How old are you?" "Where do you live?" "How many kids do you have?" "What are their names?"
I am dozy and in pain, and the last thing I want to do is make small talk. Can't he leave me in peace? I answer all his questions because something in my haze seeps through to realize that he doesn't care about any of this; he's probably just trying to keep me alert and talking, and this is his job. I answer him, but my mind drifts.
Is this how it ends? In an ambulance, alone, driving through the streets of Bristol, Connecticut, with Mike the EMT?
I had never been in that moment before, where I actually thought about mortality in a real, present way, and I had just one thought.
I wonder if my daughters will remember me.
I have quick, fleeting thoughts as I consider this. I know it would be awful for my wife and the boys, for my parents, my brother and his family and my longtime friends. They love me, as I do them. They would remember me. And I am comfortable with how I and my career would be remembered by everyone else.
But my daughters are 5.
I spend as much time with them as I can, but it's not enough, especially during football season, when I am in the office Sunday through Friday every week. I think about what their life would be like without me, growing up and going to various life events. They'd know they had a father at some point, of course -- but would they remember me? Us? The time we spent together?
I quickly try to remember something from when I was 5. I draw a blank. I am filled with tremendous sadness at this point.
I don't have time to linger on that as we get to the hospital. I'm sure most of you have been to an emergency room at some point, for a broken arm or if your kid swallowed something or whatever. Well, you know how they make you wait forever? Like, you sit there, fill out a billion insurance forms, and it's three hours before you get seen?
We get to the ER, we pull right up to the back, and they wheel my stretcher right in. As I'm wheeled straight in from the ambulance to a (private!) room, I think, "Oh, man. I must be in bad shape."
Meanwhile, back on campus, my podcast producer and TV show co-host Daniel Dopp has called my wife. "Beth? It's Daniel Dopp. Something's happened to Matthew. You need to get to the hospital ASAP." Beth, naturally, asks a bunch of questions, to which Daniel doesn't have a lot of answers. Last he saw me, I was being wheeled into an ambulance. All he can say is that she should get to the hospital as soon as possible.
Beth was doing an errand about an hour from the hospital when she got the call. Our 13-year-old can stay with a friend, but Beth has to go home, get the kids off the bus and drive them to our good friends' house, as she (correctly) figured I wouldn't want my kids to see me like this.
She told me later that, as she was doing this and trying to get to me, she was seriously wondering whether I were dead. As you might imagine, when you go unconscious in front of a bunch of people and suddenly have to cancel a bunch of other appearances, word spreads. My wife worked at ESPN for a long time, so she started getting texts.
"Just heard about Matthew. Let me know if there's anything you need."
"OMG I'm so sorry about Matthew. Are you OK?"
And so on. Daniel had since been able to tell her more about what happened on follow-up calls and texts, and she had been assured that I was still alive, but as she told me later, "If you were dead, your co-workers weren't going to tell me over the phone. They would make a doctor do it at the hospital."
So you can imagine what she must have been going through during the two hours it took for her to get to me, all the while wondering whether I were dead and what that might mean for her and our five kids.
I'd been there for about an hour, still in my suit, still lying in the original gurney, hooked up to who knows what, when finally, there is some good news. Original tests came back negative. It does not look like it was a heart attack or cardiac-related. And color is starting to come back into my face, I am told, after being pretty pale and weak-looking.
Ed and Daniel were with me pretty much when I got there, and soon they were joined by Pierre Becquey, my longtime friend who runs fantasy editorial for us, and Beth, of course. Field Yates and Stephania Bell also came, with Stephania grilling all the doctors and asking all the questions I'm too dumb to know to ask. If you ever get put into the hospital, I highly recommend you bring Stephania with you.
More waiting, more tests, more good signs. Pierre ran to a nearby store to get me some sweats and a T-shirt, as a suit is not the most comfortable thing to wear for eight hours on a gurney. By the way, trying to get out of the suit and into the sweats while still hooked up to a billion machines was high comedy.
And then I got texts. So many texts. As word spread throughout ESPN, I can't tell you how many kind texts, DMs and emails of concern I received. It meant so much, as did the many tweets and posts during the next few days from fans who noticed I wasn't on various shows and hoped everything was OK. My bosses, to the very top of ESPN management, all said the same thing: Let us know if there's anything we can do. Take as much time as you need.
And so I did, missing some podcasts, the Sunday show and a couple of episodes of the daily show. Thank you to all who filled in for me and carried the load, especially Field, who did the bulk of it. And to the rest of ESPN, who, well, respected my privacy. Things have a weird way of escaping this place and finding their ways to the public, so I was happy that I could tell this story my way instead of having to respond to a story written elsewhere. Or maybe outside places knew about it and just didn't care. Either way, thank you.
It was a weird and scary thing to go through, but ultimately, I'm glad I did.
It is an unfortunate reality that we often have to go through something massive to make changes, both personally and, too often, globally, but I have made some changes in my life and am working on making more. After many tests at the ER and a bunch of follow-ups later with my doctor, a cardiologist and other specialists, the consensus is that my heart is in great shape. "If this were gym class, you got an A. At your age, I would be very happy with these results," my cardiologist said after a stress test. It officially was not a heart attack.
Apparently, it was something called a vasovagal syncope. According to MayoClinic.org, this "occurs when the part of your nervous system that regulates heart rate and blood pressure malfunctions in response to a trigger, such as the sight of blood." I still have a few more tests to take, but I feel great, and my trigger, best we can figure out, was lack of sleep, stress and diet.
This happened on a Thursday. After getting to work at 7 the previous morning, I had stayed up until about 4:30 that morning finishing that week's Love/Hate. This is typical for me, as I have a very full schedule with the pod, the daily TV show, the rankings, the various other shows and, of course, all the research, so writing is an all-night affair. You'd be amazed at how long it takes me to write mediocre fantasy advice that is often grammatically incorrect. I had gotten back up at 8 a.m. to come in for the TV show that day, and other than a diet soda to wake up, I hadn't eaten or drunk anything. Smooth, Berry.
So I am now eating breakfast every day, with a healthy dose of fruit, and I am eating more healthily in general. I am drinking much less soda and much more water these days. ESPN is working with me on my schedule, trying to find both areas where I can cut back and additional help to ease the burden. We've already started, as I no longer am on the Thursday podcast, and as you're about to see, I am changing the format of Love/Hate to be a still sizable but less mammoth undertaking each week. I am sleeping more, but mostly, I'm trying to eliminate stress in my life.
I'm choosing to be happy and not sweat the small stuff. I'm not 100 percent there -- baby steps, don't you know? -- but I have started on my way, and that's big for me.
Mostly, I am making sure that I no longer have to worry about who will one day be at a graduation or walk my daughters down the aisle.
On Thanksgiving, I want to sincerely thank all of you for reading and being here. It means more than you'll ever know. And special thanks, as always, to "Thirsty" Kyle Soppe of Fantasy Focus 06010 and The Fantasy Show on ESPN+'s Stat-a-Pillar, Damian Dabrowski, for their help at various points in this column.
Let's get to it.
Quarterbacks I love in Week 12
Josh Allen, Buffalo Bills, vs. Chargers
I wonder if it's harder in Buffalo to eat your Thanksgiving dinner on a table that constantly has people leaping onto it from up high and crashing through it, but that's the only thing Buffalo fans and those with Allen on their team have to worry about this week. With six weekly top-five finishes at QB this season, including each of his past two games, Allen appears to have gotten through his mini-fantasy slump and now finds himself facing a Chargers team that is bottom-seven in fantasy points per game allowed to opposing QBs and gives up passing touchdowns at the sixth-highest rate. Considering that the Bolts are also bottom-12 against the run the past four weeks, it helps that Allen has at least seven rushing attempts in five straight and leads the team in red zone and goal-to-go rushes. Allen is in my top two overall for the first time this season.
Derek Carr, Las Vegas Raiders, at Falcons
Carr is the kind of QB who can drive you right into the playoffs! Get it? Drive, Carr? Just be thankful you have to endure these kind of jokes for only five more weeks. Carr plays the Jets in Week 13 and gets the Falcons this week, and there might not be a better two-game stretch for a QB than that. The Falcons allow more than 300 yards and two passing touchdowns per game, and no team in the NFL gives up more fantasy points per game. More than 73% of the yards gained against the Falcons this season have come via the pass (that's the fourth-highest rate in the league), and with the highest over/under on the board (55.5 as of this writing), I have Carr as a borderline top-10 play this week.
Taysom Hill, New Orleans Saints, at Denver
(Peeks out from behind the curtain) Am I allowed to mention Hill yet? (Fruit and garbage are thrown angrily. Quickly ducks back behind the curtain). OK. Apparently not yet. Well, I know people are very passionate on all sides of the subject, but for now, let's focus on the idea that Hill is a very viable QB play this week. QBs with at least 10 carries in any game this season average 23.4 fantasy points. Take out all of his passing last week, and Hill would have been QB17 (and QB15 if not for the last fumble). He should see a lot of rushing success again Sunday, seeing as, over the past four weeks, Denver is 25th in rushing yards allowed per game and top-five in red zone drives allowed. (Hill got three of the Saints' five goal-to-go carries last week.). More dink and dunk last week than not (17 of Hill's 23 pass attempts last week traveled 10 or fewer air yards), this is an area in which the Broncos struggle, as they give up the fifth-highest completion percentage on such throws this season.
Others receiving votes
With no teams on a bye this week, you probably don't need deeper names, but I do think Daniel Jones is a viable 2QB league play this week. Quietly with multiple passing touchdowns or at least 60 yards rushing in four of his past five, Jones will be better out of the bye, and you can't ask for a better landing spot, as Cincy allows a touchdown at the second-highest rate in the NFL. ... Baker Mayfield is known more for his commercials than for fantasy success these days, but on Sunday he has a chance to be a hero in both worlds against a Jaguars team that gives up the third-most points per game to QBs, allows the second-highest completion percentage and has the lowest sack rate in the NFL. ... Don't look now, but Philip Rivers has more than 260 passing yards in four of his past five and more than 21 fantasy points in three of the past five. The Titans, Rivers' opponent, are 25th against the pass the past four weeks.
Quarterbacks I hate in Week 12
Lamar Jackson, Baltimore Ravens, at Steelers
Jackson is averaging just 13.1 fantasy points per game in his two career starts against Pittsburgh, and a reshuffled offensive line for Baltimore isn't iideal here, especially considering how good the Steelers are defensively. Jackson had just 14.8 against them in Week 8, and in fact, only one QB all season has scored more than 17.5 against the Steelers. The last time Jackson threw for 250 yards was Week 1, so you're banking on the rushing here. How lucky do you feel? I have him just outside my top 12.
Ben Roethlisberger, Pittsburgh Steelers, vs. Ravens
Well, if this game goes the wrong way, this will certainly be an ugly section for me, but hey, if Lamar and Ben light it up, hopefully you'll be so busy with family and friends that you'll forget I blew these calls. I have Ben outside my top 12, and here's why: No QB has scored 19 fantasy points against the Ravens this season without having at least 25 rushing yards in the game. Ben has 14 rushing yards ... this season. That means it all has to come from his arm, and that's a tough sell, as the Ravens allow TD passes at the fourth-lowest rate this season and the second-fewest yards per pass attempt. The over/under for this game is among the lowest in Week 12.
Matt Ryan, Atlanta Falcons, vs. Raiders* (provisional)
Because of the Thanksgiving holiday, I am writing this column on a Tuesday, much earlier than I normally do. I have no idea whether Julio Jones will play. If Julio is active, ignore this. But if I knew for sure that Julio weren't playing this week, I would have Ryan on the hate list. In the four games Ryan has played this season in which Julio hasn't played or has left early, Ryan is averaging nine fantasy points. Nine. (He's at 23.6 in all the others.) He has one touchdown pass and four interceptions in those games. One touchdown pass total in four games. He averages just 6.5 yards per pass attempt and a 57.6% completion rate in those games. Meanwhile, Las Vegas allows the eighth-lowest completion percentage and 11th-lowest TD rate on passes this season.
Running backs I love in Week 12
Nick Chubb, Cleveland Browns, at Jaguars
OK, sure, it was frustrating when Chubb was standing on the sideline when Kareem Hunt kept getting goal-line work last week. And no doubt, it was really frustrating when, two weeks ago, he stepped out of bounds just before the end zone after that long run. And yeah, it was definitely frustrating when he left the Dallas game early and then missed four straight games. But you know what isn't frustrating? The Jaguars. They aren't frustrating. They don't bar, confront, hinder, discourage, impede, obstruct, nullify, neutralize, stump or even stymie. (Thanks, Thesaurus.com!) What they do, in fact, is allow the sixth-most fantasy points to opposing running backs, and they are bottom-12 in total scoring defense the past four weeks. With at least 19 carries and 100 yards rushing in both games since Chubb's return from injury, the Browns lead the NFL in rush rate and have a rush rate of more than 60% when leading. With Cleveland almost a touchdown favorite in this one, expect Chubb to be frustrating for your opponent as a top-10 play.
D'Andre Swift, Detroit Lions, vs. Texans
Obviously, there's a chance that he won't play in this game after missing last week because of a concussion, but if he's back, Swift is back for you in a major way. His 1.26 PPR points per touch rate is third best among qualified RBs this season (75-plus touches), and the last time we saw him, he got 21 touches. He's the guy for Detroit, and fantasy managers have to be thankful to see Houston on the schedule. The Texans allow the most yards to running backs before first contact, and they give up the most 10-plus-yard carries and the third-most fantasy points per game to running backs. I have Swift as an easy top-10 play this week.
Antonio Gibson, Washington Football Team, at Cowboys
The only thing worse than making a prediction that goes bad for a Thursday game is making one for Thursday for your favorite NFL team. Because if Gibson is bad, chances are Washington is bad, and then my Thanksgiving has a double whammy. Do me a favor. If I get any Thanksgiving calls wrong, please just yell at me on social media about Taysom Hill. I'll already feel bad about this. But whatever, no risk, no turkey biscuit, so gimme Gibson as a top-12 play this week. With a rushing score in four in a row and in seven of his past nine, he had at least 17 touches in three of the past four (including seven of Washington's 10 goal-to-go carries). With 128 total yards the last time he faced Dallas, Gibson is one of the few offensive pieces who will get a lot of work against a defense that is giving up 153 rushing yards per game.
Others receiving votes
After an appearance on last week's "hate" list (and just 3.9 points), Todd Gurley II should have a bounce-back week against a Raiders team that is tied for the second-most rushing touchdowns allowed this season. One of every 16.5 running back carries against Las Vegas this year results in a touchdown. Gurley is averaging 16.7 carries per game this season. Here's saying it won't be pretty, but Gurley will get into the end zone on Sunday. ... Don't look now, but you know who has been really useful lately? Wayne Gallman. With a rushing score in four straight games (and at least 13 points in all of them), Gallman's touch count is trending in the right direction (10-12-14-18 in the past four), and now he gets a Bengals defense that is 27th against the run the past four weeks and gives up the most yards per carry after contact in the NFL. ... Damien Harris has a rushing score or 100 yards in three of his past four games, and in what should be a close game (Arizona currently favored by less than a field goal), Harris should see a decent amount of work against a Cardinals team that coughs up 124.7 rushing yards per game (10th most). ... What came first? The pilgrims at Plymouth Rock or Frank Gore? #FrankGoreForever. With La'Mical Perine placed on IR and only Ty Johnson and Josh Adams behind him, Gore has some deep-league appeal this week. He's averaging more than 12 carries per game this season (a number likely to go up on Sunday), and RBs against Miami with more than 12 carries this season average 15.7 points per game. Over the past four games, the Dolphins have allowed the sixth-most rushing yards per game to running backs.
Running backs I hate in Week 12
Miles Sanders, Philadelphia Eagles, vs. Seahawks
I cannot tell you how much grief I got in the preseason for ranking Miles Sanders outside the top seven, where he was consistently going in drafts. I had him as more of an RB2, ranking him as RB14. As we enter Week 12, Miles Sanders is RB16 on a points per game basis and is much, much lower in total points because he has missed three games. Now the Eagles have signed Jordan Howard, who could certainly vulture some touchdowns down the stretch. I'm a little nervous about Sanders this week, when I once again have him in RB2 territory. The Seahawks quietly are the second-best run defense the past four weeks, and for the season, they have given up the seventh-fewest yards per carry to running backs. The Eagles' offense just looks like a mess these days, and Sanders is coming off a game in which he had his second-lowest rushing total of the season. You still have to start him, but once again, I am the only one of our rankers who has him outside my top 10. Lower expectations for him this week, and look elsewhere in DFS.
Melvin Gordon III, Denver Broncos, vs. Saints
Really? I'm back on Gordon on the hate list? After last week? Yes, Gordon was on the hate list last week, and if it hadn't been for Robert Woods blowing up, Gordon would have been my worst call of last week. Gordon looked great, scoring twice (and almost a third time, as he fumbled at the goal line) and rushing for 84 yards. But here's the issue. His passing game usage is minimal (just one reception in the past three games), and he has more than 100 yards rushing in only one game this season. He needs a touchdown to likely pay off for you, and while that is always possible, the Saints haven't allowed a rushing touchdown to an RB since Week 6. Since then, they give up an NFL-low 11.7 points per game to RBs and only twice this season has an RB had more than 14.5 points against them. I say I'll be able to use that same stat next week.
Giovani Bernard, Cincinnati Bengals, vs. Giants
I have no idea what this offense will look like without Joe Burrow, but my guess is: Not great, Bob. Not great. Bernard's big calling card when filling in for Joe Mixon is volume, but Samaje Perine is becoming more and more of a thing. Perine played a season-high 29 snaps last week (he's averaging eight touches per game over the past three), and in the past two games, Bernard is averaging just 12.5 touches and 9.1 points per game. Over the past four weeks, the Giants are quietly seventh best against the run. I have Bernard as merely a midtier flex play this week.
Pass-catchers I love in Week 12
Terry McLaurin, Washington Football Team, at Cowboys
I'm going to make Terry McScorin a thing if it's the last thing I do -- unless Alex Smith beats me to it on Thursday. WRs who have seen seven-plus targets against the Cowboys this season are averaging 22.4 fantasy points per game. That includes McScorin, who had 11 targets in Week 7 against the Cowboys and put a 7-90-1 line on them for 22 fantasy points. Averaging 9.3 targets per game this season, McLaurin will once again be a focal point of the Washington pass offense against a Cowboys defense that has given up an NFL-high 19 touchdowns to opposing wide receivers. McLauren is a top-five WR for me this week.
Will Fuller V, Houston Texans, at Lions
Turkey, stuffing, me making fun of my friend Daniel Dopp's Lions -- some traditions never die. Detroit gives up the third-most deep receptions per game and allows the fifth-highest completion percentage on deep passes. A fully healthy deep threat for one of the hottest QBs in football, Fuller has five-plus catches in three straight games and should have another big game against the Lions' pass defense, ranked 28th the past four weeks. Fuller is inside my top 12 for the week.
DJ Moore, Carolina Panthers, at Vikings
Whether it's P.J. Walker or, more likely, Teddy Bridgewater for the Panthers on Sunday, I don't think it matters. This offense has wised up and is making a concerted effort to get Moore the ball, er, more. With 18 targets the past two weeks (19-plus fantasy points in each game), Moore is in line for another big game against a Vikings secondary that is playing better recently but is still bottom-five in yards per game on deep passes and is allowing the most fantasy points per game to wideouts.
Evan Engram, New York Giants, at Bengals
Evan Engram If He Can Stay Healthy (his full legal name) is, in fact, 100 percent healthy. Out of the bye, Engram comes into this game having seen nine-plus targets in three of the past four games, including six red zone targets in that stretch. The Bengals allow the third-most yards per game to tight ends and the fourth-most fantasy points to the position, and teams facing Cincy are averaging the fifth-most tight end targets. You already know I like Danny Dimes in this one, and Engram figures to be one of his key pieces.
Others receiving votes
OK, so one of the other key pieces for Danny Dimes in that game against Cincy? Sterling Shepard. Since he came back in Week 7, he has a 24% target share and six-plus catches in four straight games (only Davante Adams and Stefon Diggs have longer active streaks). The past four weeks, the Bengals allow the fourth-most WR fantasy points. ... DeVante Parker has at least seven targets in three in a row and plays the Jets. There. That's all the analysis you need. ... With 18 targets the past three weeks, Michael Pittman Jr. leads the Colts in targets, has 15-plus points in two of three and gets a Titans secondary that is top-four in the NFL in catches and yards allowed to opposing wide receivers. ... In four of his past five games, Austin Hooper has a target share of more than 20%, and you already know I like Baker Mayfield in this one. No team has allowed more touchdowns to tight ends this year than Jacksonville, and the Jaguars give up the second-most yards per reception to tight ends. ...With Greg Olsen's unfortunate injury, there is suddenly more playing time available for Will Dissly. Yes, Jacob Hollister is still there, but my expectation is that Dissly is on the right side of that timeshare. For those scraping deep for a viable tight end, I like Dissly's talent and think he has a shot at viability this week against an Eagles squad that allows the sixth-most points to tight ends.
Pass-catchers I hate in Week 12
Tee Higgins, Cincinnati Bengals, vs. Giants
I don't know whether James Bradberry will shadow Higgins, but I do know that Brandon Allen will be the one throwing him passes. Maybe a full week of practice with the ones will help, but Allen completed just 46% of his passes in three starts with the Broncos last season, so it's tough to have confidence in him. I absolutely love Higgins, but in a crucial Week 12 where many fantasy teams are in a must-win situation, the risk that this offense just completely bottoms out is too great for me to trust Higgins. In addition, the Giants quietly have allowed just four touchdowns to perimeter WRs this season (tied for fifth fewest), and over the past four weeks, they allow the 10th-fewest points per game to opposing wideouts.
Brandon Aiyuk and Deebo Samuel, San Francisco 49ers, at Rams
Tyler Lockett, DK Metcalf, Allen Robinson II, DeVante Parker, Terry McLaurin. All of them have a lot more fantasy success this season than Aiyuk and Samuel, and none of them scored even 12 points against the Rams. Only Lockett and Robinson broke double digits. This is Deebo's first game back, so who knows how much he'll be used, but he'll certainly get used enough to take some looks away from Aiyuk. Plus, there's shaky QB play, and you know how good this Rams secondary is (second-fewest fantasy points per game to opposing wide receivers). I have both outside my top 35 this week.
Mike Evans, Tampa Bay Buccaneers, vs. Chiefs
Make no mistake, Evans is officially a FULL. GROWN. MAN. And he is always a threat to score, even with a zillion guys on him. Here's the issue: The Chiefs are really great against perimeter receivers this season. They give up the third-fewest yards, and they are top-10 in catches, catch rate allowed and touchdowns allowed to perimeter wideouts. They also give up the second-lowest completion percentage on deep passes this season, and if last Monday was any indication, Tom Brady is much more effective recently on short passes than on the deep ball. Evans is also boom-or-bust, with four weeks outside the top 45 of wideouts for the week. When he's off, he's really off. That variance and a tougher matchup than you think (along with the many other mouths to feed in Tampa) have Evans outside my top 20 in Week 12.
Jonnu Smith, Tennessee Titans, at Colts
Like most tight ends this season, Smith is very touchdown-dependent, as he has yet to have more than 32 yards receiving in six straight games and has two or fewer receptions in five of those six games. Now, he does have two scores in his past three games and is coming off his best game since Week 5. So maybe he'll score again this week, but how lucky do you feel? Opponents complete passes in the red zone against Indy at the fourth-lowest rate in the NFL, and the Colts allow the fourth-fewest fantasy points per game to opposing tight ends.
Matthew Berry, The Fabulous Mr. Roto, wishes you and yours a safe and happy Thanksgiving.