Rookie running backs receive considerable attention in the fantasy football world because managers tend to overreact to individual outings and cling to hope that a positive performance means a reliable starting option has emerged. Week 12 begins on Thanksgiving Day, and several first-year running backs will be on display, though each of their situations seems a bit different.
For example, the first of the three Thursday games features the Detroit Lions hosting the Houston Texans. Detroit's D'Andre Swift, the second running back selected in the 2020 NFL draft after Kansas City Chiefs star Clyde Edwards-Helaire, scored 25.9 PPR points in Week 10 and seemed primed to secure lead-back duties long-term for his offense and fantasy investors, but a late-announced concussion cost him Week 11. It remains uncertain if Swift -- or excellent veteran wide receiver Kenny Golladay, for that matter -- will be active for Week 12.
There seems ample clarity in the second game of the day as Washington's Antonio Gibson gets his first road meeting with the NFC East rival Dallas Cowboys. Gibson has scored touchdowns in four consecutive games, including Sunday, when he rushed for 94 yards versus the Cincinnati Bengals. The only game in which Gibson ran for more yards was Week 7 against Dallas, when he totaled 128 yards. Gibson seems worthy of RB1 status in fantasy for this rematch and December, especially if quarterback Alex Smith looks his way more often in the passing game.
The final game of the holiday pits the Baltimore Ravens and Pittsburgh Steelers in a battle of fierce AFC North rivals. J.K. Dobbins faces a tough test against the top defense in suppressing fantasy points to running backs, but it remains problematic if he will get the chance. Dobbins turned 17 touches into 85 yards and a touchdown in Sunday's loss to the Tennessee Titans, scoring 18.5 PPR points, but a week prior he got only six touches. Was Sunday a sign that Dobbins will handle a large workload moving forward? Limited veterans Mark Ingram II and Gus Edwards combined for five touches and 8 yards Sunday for a mere 0.8 PPR points.
While we seem to know the value of Swift -- if he plays -- and Gibson, that leaves Dobbins as someone to pay closer attention to on Thursday night, especially since he shockingly remains available in nearly 50% of ESPN standard leagues. The Ohio State star should have been piling on the touches two months ago, really, as Baltimore's offense struggled, but even with an ineffective and then-healthy Ingram, Dobbins barely played in October. November has gone better and December features meetings with the Cowboys, Cleveland Browns and Jacksonville Jaguars. Dobbins can outrun most defenders or run over them if he prefers, and he should enjoy those games if given the opportunity.
So many rookie running backs warrant attention in fantasy this season, and it seems to be a trend for future seasons as well, as franchises look to save financially and treat players at the position as replaceable cogs. Just look at Jaguars undrafted rookie James Robinson, as he currently boasts the clear edge in the fantasy community for MVP honors among first-year running backs, on his way to perhaps 1,500 total yards and a top-five finish at the position in fantasy. There remains time for Swift, Gibson and Dobbins and perhaps others to catch him. Check out the latter three options on Thanksgiving and, most importantly, enjoy the holiday.
Charging ahead: Meanwhile, a key veteran running back could make his return to the field when the Los Angeles Chargers travel to Buffalo to face the Bills. Austin Ekeler tore his hamstring in Week 4 and reports indicate he could be an active participant in Week 12. The Chargers have struggled to find reliable running back play in the interim, though journeyman Kalen Ballage, a considerably larger man than Ekeler, has stepped up of late and could remain a potential flex option even when Ekeler returns. Ekeler provided 1,550 scrimmage yards and 11 touchdowns during the 2019 season, earning a top-10 spot at his position in fantasy drafts. Keep an eye on the news to see if the Chargers activate him.
Carolina on our mind: The Carolina Panthers dealt the Lions a surprising 20-0 defeat on Sunday and did so without the services of running back Christian McCaffrey and quarterback Teddy Bridgewater. Each could return in Week 12 at Minnesota against the Vikings, but fantasy managers are clearly more worried about McCaffrey, who returned from his own long-term injury in Week 9 to score 37.1 PPR points, only to injure a shoulder and miss the past two contests. Bridgewater would presumably replace rookie P.J. Walker, who performed capably in his maiden start Sunday, but neither would warrant attention in fantasy except for multi-quarterback formats.
Bengals move on: Ryan Finley figures to start for Cincinnati against the New York Giants and beyond now that Joe Burrow is out for the rest of his rookie campaign with serious knee injuries. To say this affects the Bengals' wide receivers is an understatement, as Tyler Boyd and Tee Higgins -- yet another rookie -- could find fantasy production to be in short supply with Finley leading the way. Finley is not exactly facing the 1986 Chicago Bears Sunday, but he was far from a fantasy star in Week 11 and in brief action his rookie season. The Bengals are not playoff-bound and one wonders if the Burrow injury could have the unintended effect of the franchise shutting down injured running back Joe Mixon for the duration of the season.
Saints march to Denver: With Drew Brees on the sidelines for what could be a while, Taysom Hill scored 24.4 PPR points in his first start at quarterback. Much of the fantasy value came from his running, but it is interesting how the offense altered with him leading the way as opposed to Brees. Alvin Kamara, arguably the top fantasy option in the land and on his way to likely breaking the league mark for receptions in a season by a running back, caught nary a pass Sunday, the first time this happened in his career. Wide receiver Michael Thomas entered Week 11 with 10 catches in his three games and then nearly matched it with nine more in the win over the Atlanta Falcons, amassing 104 receiving yards. This hardly implies roles cannot reverse in Week 12 and beyond, but it is something to watch. Meanwhile, those who rushed to add Jameis Winston entering Week 11 can probably move on now. Hill was the surprise Week 11 starter, but the role appears safely his now.
Monday night madness: Seattle Seahawks quarterback Russell Wilson has never lost to the Philadelphia Eagles in five chances, and he gets another shot in the final game of Week 12 and November against a sputtering Carson Wentz. Yes, each of these teams is in first place, but it hardly feels that way for Philadelphia, which is plagued by poor play and myriad turnovers from its franchise quarterback, along with injury concerns along the offensive line. Which Eagles are safe plays in Week 12 or any week? Somewhat-underutilized running back Miles Sanders certainly is worthy, but after that, good luck. The Eagles could get tight end Zach Ertz back in Week 12, but he would be a risky play. While most organizations would have turned to their backup, second-round draft pick Jalen Hurts, by now, there seems little momentum on the part of the Eagles to do so. That should not stop fantasy investors from adding Hurts in advance of the game, just in case.