Matchups play a huge part in fantasy football managers' start and sit decisions. When choosing between two (or more) similarly talented players, the decision often boils down to: Which one has the best matchup?
We use that word -- matchups -- a lot. But what, exactly, constitutes a favorable or unfavorable matchup?
This is where the "Matchups Map" comes in. Each week, I'll provide a schedule-independent method to determine strength of positional matchups, using the most recent, relevant data. Check back for updated numbers each week, including matchups highlights at each position -- both favorable and unfavorable -- based upon those statistics. For these purposes, we will use PPR (Point Per Reception) scoring.
"Adj. FPA," or Adjusted Fantasy Points Allowed, reflects how far above or below a player's average that defense held opponents at that position. A positive number means that the matchup is favorable; a negative number means it is unfavorable. This is a team-wide analysis, so a plus-5.0 Adj. FPA to running backs would mean that the defense afforded its opponents' entire running back corps five additional points on average, which should be kept in mind when evaluating running back-by-committees. All data is from the past five weeks' NFL action.
Finally, a caveat: Matchups are only one ingredient in my rankings formula. Not every favorable matchup should be exploited; not every unfavorable matchup should be avoided. To get the most complete recipe for whom to start and sit, consult my weekly rankings.
Quarterbacks
Favorable matchup: Drew Lock, Denver Broncos (at Las Vegas Raiders). He is coming off a career-best game of 29.2 fantasy points, and while it wasn't the prettiest of performances -- his 17.8% off-target rate was eighth worst among the week's 28 quarterbacks, and he got to his total largely on the heels of a personal-best 48 pass attempts -- it nevertheless accentuated his matchups-driven ceiling.
Lock's schedule has otherwise been brutal, as three of six starts have come against the best (New England Patriots), fifth-best (Pittsburgh Steelers) and 12th-best (Kansas City Chiefs) defenses against quarterbacks using full-season data, but he has five passing touchdowns in his past two games and a pair of rushing scores in his past three.
Now, he faces a Raiders defense that has, outside of holding Baker Mayfield to 7.8 fantasy points in Week 8, struggled mightily against the pass of late, allowing 23-plus points to each of the other four starting quarterbacks it has faced in its past five games. Each of those four quarterbacks has managed at least 288 yards and two touchdowns passing while totaling one interception, and the group has combined for three rushing scores. Lock has an excellent chance at a third consecutive top-10 output.
Unfavorable matchup: Joe Burrow, Cincinnati Bengals (at Pittsburgh Steelers). He has enjoyed an excellent rookie campaign, and the "eye test" confirms that he is the real deal. The problem, however, is that Burrow gets little in the way of offensive line help; his 7.5% sack rate on dropbacks is sixth worst among 33 qualifiers; and his pressure rate (on 30.6% of his dropbacks he was either sacked, under duress or hit) and average time before throw (2.65) are noticeably worse than the league's average.
He also has fallen prey to his matchups on a frequent basis. Look at Week 5 against the Baltimore Ravens, against whom he delivered 4.3 fantasy points or Week 6 against the Indianapolis Colts, against whom he scored 16.7, or even his Week 1 versus a much-healthier Los Angeles Chargers team that limited him to 16.3 points. The Steelers blitz nearly as often as any team in the league, they lead the league in sack-per-dropback rate (10.2%) and they're one of two defenses to have not afforded an opposing quarterback a 20-point game (Chicago Bears). Burrow might need a rushing-score opportunity to reach the top 10 this week.
Running backs
Favorable matchup: Antonio Gibson, Washington Football Team (at Detroit Lions). While his workload has been variable week over week and modest from a seasonal perspective (his average of 14 touches per game is 27th at the position), Gibson is nevertheless getting enough play to matter in this backfield.
He is 5-of-7 converting goal-to-go rushes for touchdowns, emerging as the team's preferred goal-line back. And despite J.D. McKissic's presence, Gibson has seen a respectable 3.3 targets per game. That makes the rookie a great bet for success facing the Lions, a team that has struggled mightily both in scoring position and against pass-catching running backs.
The Lions have allowed a rushing touchdown on 9 of 18 goal-to-go plays (their 50% rate is second highest in the league; Miami Dolphins, 66.7%), and they've afforded the position a league-high 2.1 PPR fantasy points per target this season. In the past two weeks, the Lions have allowed 80.7 PPR fantasy points to Nyheim Hines, Jordan Wilkins (Week 8) and Dalvin Cook (Week 9) alone.
Unfavorable matchup: Mike Davis, Carolina Panthers (versus Tampa Bay Buccaneers). Even with the news that Christian McCaffrey will miss at least Week 10 -- and probably more -- with a shoulder injury, Davis isn't as attractive a plug-and-play option as you might think. The Buccaneers remain one of the stingiest defenses against the run -- and I'd argue the stingiest defense, regardless of what the recent stats say -- having limited Alvin Kamara, Josh Jacobs and Aaron Jones to a combined 35.1 PPR fantasy points on 40 total touches in the past four weeks.
To put that into perspective, those three have combined to average 63.3 points per game on 20.4 touches for the season. Davis, meanwhile, totaled 28.8 points on 46 touches in his most recent three games as McCaffrey's fill-in (Weeks 6-8), facing a trio of tough matchups (CHI, @NO, ATL).
Wide receivers
Favorable matchup: Rashard Higgins, Cleveland Browns (versus Houston Texans). He is currently available in more than 90% of ESPN leagues, and if you're in a Week 10 pinch, Higgins is a worthwhile, albeit risk/reward, dart throw. Here's my thinking: Higgins has typically aligned as a perimeter wideout for the Browns (34 of 47 routes in Weeks 7-8), whereas Jarvis Landry has more often lined up out of the slot; and since Odell Beckham Jr.'s early Week 7 departure due to injury, Higgins seems to have been Baker Mayfield's preferred target on the outside (nine targets in Weeks 7-8, second only to Landry's 17).
That's important for Higgins going up against the Texans (who typically allow top cornerback Bradley Roby to shadow the opponent's top wide receiver) because it means a probable matchup with Vernon Hargreaves III, one of the team's worst corners in coverage this season. The Texans, incidentally, have allowed three games of 22-plus PPR fantasy points to individual wide receivers in their past four contests.
Unfavorable matchup: DJ Chark Jr., Jacksonville Jaguars (at Green Bay Packers). This one's about the wide receiver-versus-cornerback matchup more than anything else. The Packers' Jaire Alexander has been one of the most effective at his position thus far, affording only 40.1 PPR fantasy points on 211 coverage snaps. And if you look at the individual wide receiver matchups, there's plenty to fear with the matchup.
From Weeks 6 to 8, opposing WR1s Mike Evans, Will Fuller V and Justin Jefferson combined for 20.1 PPR fantasy points on 12 targets while running a combined 79 routes, a testament to Alexander's dominance. Chark enjoyed one of his best games of 2020 in Week 9, totaling 27.6 PPR fantasy points on 12 targets, but he also did that facing one of the most favorable matchups he could ask -- the aforementioned Texans, with Roby sidelined for disciplinary reasons.
Tight ends
Favorable matchup: Eric Ebron, Pittsburgh Steelers (versus Cincinnati Bengals). Ebron has emerged as a viable weekly fantasy starter -- his 37.0 PPR fantasy points during the past three weeks is fifth best at his position -- fueled by a position-best 106 routes run and five red zone targets, which is tied for tops.
Ebron has clearly caught Ben Roethlisberger's eye in scoring position, and he is playing a large number of offensive snaps, which only helps pad his volume. Here's a matchup where a guy utilized as heavily as Ebron has been can shine. In Week 6, Trey Burton scored 21.9 PPR fantasy points on five targets and one goal-line rushing attempt, and in Week 7, Harrison Bryant scored 21.6 points on five targets, against these Bengals.
Unfavorable matchup: Jonnu Smith, Tennessee Titans (versus Indianapolis Colts). After a hot start to the season, Smith's fantasy production has plummeted during the past four weeks, as he has totaled 20.3 PPR points on 10 targets. He has effectively become a touchdown-dependent, plug-in type of player, rather than someone to trust on a weekly basis.
A Colts matchup, unfortunately, renders him a "no" in all but the very deepest of leagues, considering how stingy this defense has been against the position. No other team has afforded fewer than the 1.09 points per target to the position that the Colts have, and it's the only defense to have not allowed a tight end a touchdown in 2020.