Matchups play a huge part in fantasy managers' weekly lineup decisions. When choosing between two (or more) similarly talented players, the decision often boils down to: Which one has the best matchup?
We use that word -- matchups -- a lot. But what, exactly, constitutes a favorable or unfavorable matchup?
This is where the "Matchups Map" comes in. Each week, I'll provide a schedule-independent method to determine strength of positional matchups, using the most recent, relevant data. Check back for updated numbers each week, including matchups highlights at each position -- both favorable and unfavorable -- based upon those statistics. For these purposes, we will use PPR (point per reception) scoring.
"Adj. FPA," or Adjusted Fantasy Points Allowed, reflects how far above or below a player's average that defense held opponents at that position. A positive number means that the matchup is favorable; a negative number means it is unfavorable. This is a team-wide analysis, so a plus-5.0 Adj. FPA to running backs would mean that the defense afforded its opponents' entire running back corps five additional points on average, which should be kept in mind when evaluating running back-by-committees. All data is from the past five weeks' NFL action.
Finally, a caveat: Matchups are only one ingredient in my rankings formula. Not every favorable matchup should be exploited; not every unfavorable matchup should be avoided. To get the most complete recipe for whom to start and sit, consult my weekly rankings.
Quarterbacks
Favorable matchup: Andy Dalton, Dallas Cowboys (versus Arizona Cardinals). The question on everyone's mind is how effective Dalton can be in place of Dak Prescott, lost for the season because of an ankle injury in Week 5. The 22 snaps Dalton played in Prescott's place to conclude Sunday's game didn't provide nearly enough insight, though he was 9-of-11 passing for 111 yards in orchestrating a pair of comeback drives resulting in field goals late in the fourth quarter, after struggling initially upon his entry into the game.
Still, the Cowboys' offense has leaned exceptionally pass-heavy -- their 47.2 attempts per game are nearly six more than any other team -- meaning opportunity should be abundant for the "Red Rifle," not to mention Dalton's recent history shows a tendency to play directly into the hands of his matchups. From 2017 to '19, three of Dalton's four best single-game fantasy point totals came while facing one of his five most favorable matchups, while five of his seven worst point totals came while facing one of his 10 least-favorable matchups. The Cardinals represent one of the most favorable matchups Dalton has faced in some time, as most notably they surrendered a season-high 26.2 fantasy points in Week 4.
Considering the opposing Kyler Murray should have no problem throwing against the Cowboys' defense and rolling up the score early, there's plenty to like about Dalton, both from matchups and volume standpoints.
Unfavorable matchup: Aaron Rodgers, Green Bay Packers (at Tampa Bay Buccaneers). While Rodgers, currently sixth in quarterback scoring (104.1 fantasy points, or 20.8 per game), has earned a regular spot in most every fantasy manager's lineup, this isn't the kind of matchup where you should expect him to carry you to victory mostly on his own.
The Buccaneers' defense has been one of the best-performing units thus far, thanks in part to a pass rush that has pressured the quarterback on 34.7% of dropbacks (second most in the league), sacked him on 8.4% (fourth most) and granted him the second-lowest amount of time in the pocket.
That's a problem for Rodgers, who, when pressured, has the league's fourth-worst qualified completion percentage (36.6%) and seventh-worst sack rate on dropbacks (32.2%) in 2019-20 combined. The expected return of Davante Adams (hamstring) would boost Rodgers' fantasy appeal, but Rodgers' statistical ceiling for this game is certainly limited.
Running backs
Favorable matchup: D'Andre Swift, Detroit Lions (at Jacksonville Jaguars). The Lions' backfield has been mired in a maddening committee, with no one individual earning more than 62% of the rushing attempts (Adrian Peterson, 54 of 87) or playing more than 40% of the offensive snaps (again Peterson, 99 of 248). What has been clear about their arrangement, however, is that Swift is their preferred passing-down back, running a team-high 49 routes and seeing 16 of the team's 27 total running-back targets.
That's a good thing when facing a matchup like the Jaguars, who have allowed 1.9 PPR fantasy points per target to running backs (fourth most in the league), including big receiving days by Nyheim Hines (18.5 PPR fantasy points receiving in Week 1), Joe Mixon (15.0, Week 4) and Jonathan Taylor (12.7, Week 1).
Toss in the fact that Swift, rather than Kerryon Johnson, has more commonly served as Peterson's change-of-pace rusher, and there's plenty to like about the rookie in Week 6.
Unfavorable matchup: Miles Sanders, Philadelphia Eagles (versus Baltimore Ravens). With the Eagles struggling to maintain leads, Sanders' rushing workload has been inconsistent week over week, and this is another instance when game flow might not necessarily favor him. More importantly, despite their seasonal ranking, the Ravens' defense has been excellent against the run through five weeks. They've allowed the fewest fantasy points per rushing attempt to running backs (0.36), the second-fewest yards before first contact per rush (2.1), and largely kept name-brand running backs like Nick Chubb (5.6 PPR fantasy points, Week 1), David Johnson (7.0, Week 2), Clyde Edwards-Helaire (18.4, Week 3) and Mixon (15.4, Week 4) in check. Sanders should still get his 15-20 touches, but I don't see a path to RB1 production.
Wide receivers
Favorable matchup: DeVante Parker, Miami Dolphins (versus New York Jets). This is the WR3-valued matchup with the greatest likelihood of returning WR1 production, as the Jets' secondary has been far worse performing than it appears on the surface. This defense has allowed the 10th-most PPR fantasy points to opposing wide receivers, but it has also faced a Deebo Samuel-less San Francisco 49ers (Week 2), Courtland Sutton-less Denver Broncos (Week 4) and an Indianapolis Colts team that has struggled mightily in the passing game due to quarterback Philip Rivers' miserable start to 2020.
The Jets' problem is they have two of the five worst cornerbacks in the league (minimum 40 coverage snaps) in terms of PPR fantasy points allowed per coverage snap: Pierre Desir (0.52, fifth worst) and Lamar Jackson (0.60, third worst). Parker might not be getting a whole lot of red zone looks thus far (one, which is sixth on the team), but he leads the way with a 19% target share and is therefore the first Dolphins wide receiver you should lock into your lineup.
Unfavorable matchup: Terry McLaurin, Washington Football Team (at New York Giants). It's a misconception that the Giants' defense is one to exploit, especially when it comes to their pass defense. They're at worst 12th in the Matchups Map charts at quarterback, wide receiver and tight end, and while this position is where they draw that No. 12 ranking, it's important to point out that the Giants would rank fourth if this chart accounted only for opponents' WR1s.
Since JuJu Smith-Schuster's 24.9 PPR fantasy point outburst against this defense in Week 1, the Giants have held Allen Robinson II to 6.3 points on nine targets (Week 2) and Amari Cooper to 4.1 points on four targets (Week 5). The common thread? Cornerback James Bradberry, who has allowed a solid 0.24 points per coverage snap through five weeks but wasn't the one assigned to cover Smith-Schuster most commonly in the season opener.
Tight ends
Favorable matchup: Eric Ebron, Pittsburgh Steelers (versus Cleveland Browns). This is now back-to-back weeks that Ebron has graced this space, and while he was a relative disappointment in Week 5, delivering only 7.3 PPR fantasy points to his fantasy managers, let's not overlook that he still had a 17% target share (6 of 34), 11th-highest among tight ends for the week, and his production on his receptions and yardage alone -- meaning taking out the others' touchdowns -- ranked 15th at the position.
Players in Ebron's valuation tier, unfortunately, are touchdown-dependent, with such a score usually the difference between success or failure. With last week's volume, he now has a 19% share (13 of 69) in the Steelers' past two games, which is plenty to maintain a matchups-based case. Ebron's matchup is again excellent in Week 6 and well worth exploiting if you're thin on alternatives, being that the Browns have surrendered four touchdowns to tight ends, as well as an average of 2.4 red zone targets, most in the league, to the position.
Unfavorable matchup: Noah Fant, Denver Broncos (at New England Patriots). He got in a limited practice on Wednesday, but even if Fant is indeed good to go for Week 6, he's not a player I'd trust, considering his matchup. The Patriots have done an outstanding job at reining in opposing tight ends, but perhaps more importantly, they're excellent at deciphering the opponent's key receiver (regardless of position) and keeping him in check.
Take a look at Waller's Week 3 (2.9 PPR fantasy points on four targets) or Kelce's Week 4 (10.0, 7). Fant has been the Broncos' most reliable target through four games this season, tied for the team lead with a 19% target share, and he's the only member of the team with multiple end zone targets. He's probably too talented to sit if the alternative is a waiver-wire, limited-volume option, but if you're rich in talent at the position, this is one where I'd sit him out.