Matchups play a huge part in fantasy managers' weekly lineup decisions. When choosing between two (or more) similarly talented players, the decision often boils down to: Which one has the best matchup?
We use that word -- matchups -- a lot. But what, exactly, constitutes a favorable or unfavorable matchup?
This is where the Matchups Map comes in. Each week, I'll provide a schedule-independent method to determine strength of positional matchups, using the most recent, relevant data. Check back for updated numbers each week, including matchup highlights at each position -- both favorable and unfavorable -- based on those statistics. For these purposes, we will use PPR (point per reception) scoring.
For Week 3, the maps include two measures: The first, "Rk," is my personal ranking of how favorable/unfavorable I consider that positional matchup; the second, "Adj. FPA," reflects how far above or below a player's average that defense held opponents at that position. For Weeks 1-3, 2019 full-season data is used for the latter, so take those with a grain -- or several grains -- of salt. Beginning in Week 4, we'll use 2020 data (three weeks in the books at that point), and then starting in Week 6, we'll use the most recent five weeks.
Finally, a caveat: Remember that matchups are only one ingredient in my rankings formula. Not every favorable matchup should be exploited, and not every unfavorable matchup should be avoided. To get the most complete recipe for whom to start and sit, consult my weekly rankings.
Quarterbacks
Favorable matchup: Gardner Minshew II, Jacksonville Jaguars (vs. Miami Dolphins). His performance has improved by leaps and bounds. His completion percentage has risen from 59.1% in his 12 starts as a rookie to 75.4% this season, his off-target percentage has dropped from 21.1% to 7.8%, and he orchestrated a Week 1 comeback victory and nearly did the same in a three-point Week 2 loss. While the 2020 sample sizes are small, bear in mind that they included a tough Week 1 matchup against a very good Indianapolis Colts pass defense. Minshew looks like a legit NFL passer at this stage of his career, and capably carrying his team through a Week 2 shootout bodes well for his immediate future, as his Jaguars are a team that should constantly be resorting to the air to keep up on the scoreboard.
The Dolphins, thus far, have afforded quarterbacks the second-most fantasy points (60.2), and while a good chunk of that has come via the legs of Cam Newton (Week 1) and Josh Allen (Week 2), it's worth pointing out that this defense has allowed the most fantasy points per pass attempt (0.72). Here's another angle, and one that elevates Minshew's statistical ceiling for Week 3: These Dolphins have allowed a league-high 78.6% completion rate on vertical passes (those that travel at least 15 yards beyond the line of scrimmage), as well as a league-high (tied) 10 completions of 20-plus yards. Cornerback Byron Jones (groin) missed the final three quarters of Week 2, and that contributed, but Jones is unlikely to be ready to play this week.
Sunday pick: Mitchell Trubisky, Chicago Bears (at Atlanta Falcons).
Unfavorable matchup: Deshaun Watson, Houston Texans (at Pittsburgh Steelers). It's easy to say that DeAndre Hopkins' offseason trade is responsible for Watson's decline in production so far this season, but a fairer assessment addresses Watson's struggles thus far when blitzed or otherwise pressured, as well as the challenging schedule he has faced. Watson, who generally likes to chuck the ball deep, has seen a near-15% decline in his completion percentage on vertical passes (51.0% in 2019, 37.5% so far in 2020), which indeed could be because of the loss of Hopkins, one of the game's most effective receivers on such throws.
But consider that Watson's off-target rate has slipped from 32.3% to 62.5% when under pressure, as well as the fact that the opposing Kansas City Chiefs (Week 1) have an offense that can put a quarterback into catch-up, chuck-it situations early and often, while the Baltimore Ravens (Week 2) have arguably the game's best pass defense. Watson hasn't had it easy in 2020, and matters might not improve in Week 3, as the Steelers sport one of the game's best overall defenses.
There's only one bright spot here: The Steelers have struggled against vertical throws, affording a 64.7% completion rate (11-of-17) and three touchdowns, so maybe Watson could convert a deep touchdown score.
Running backs
Favorable matchup: Joshua Kelley, Los Angeles Chargers (vs. Carolina Panthers). I'm going to lean on that Panthers matchup for opposing running backs as long as it looks as appealing as it has, because they've now allowed at least two rushing touchdowns to the opponent in seven consecutive games, the longest such streak (by two full games) this century. Things have gotten so bad for the Panthers' defensive front that it's allowed three games of 10-plus PPR fantasy points to the position: Josh Jacobs' 35.9 in Week 1, but also Leonard Fournette's 27.6 and Ronald Jones II's 10.7 in Week 2.
That Fournette/Jones combo performance is the relevant comparison point here, because the Tampa Bay Buccaneers have gone full rotation at the running back position thus far, allotting Fournette 44% of the offensive snaps and Jones 35% in that game. These Chargers, meanwhile, have played Austin Ekeler on 62% (93-of-150) and Kelley on 39% (58-of-150) of their offensive plays through two games. That's plenty for Kelley to make a flex-caliber fantasy impact.
Unfavorable matchup: Clyde Edwards-Helaire, Kansas City Chiefs (at Baltimore Ravens). The rookie's schedule has quite a few doozies on it, including this one, the Week 12 game at the Buccaneers, Week 15 at the New Orleans Saints and Week 17 against the Chargers (tuck that away, if you're planning out those playoff-chasing weeks).
The Ravens have faced three very good running backs in Nick Chubb, Kareem Hunt (Week 1) and David Johnson (Week 2) during the first two weeks and afforded them a combined 24.7 PPR fantasy points on 41 total touches. Most notably, the trio combined to go 7-of-11 catching targets for 31 yards and no touchdowns, important here because of Edwards-Helaire's receiving skills.
Wide receivers
Favorable matchup: CeeDee Lamb, Dallas Cowboys (at Seattle Seahawks). So far this season, the Seahawks have allowed a league-high five wide receiver games of at least 10 PPR fantasy points. They've also allowed three of the league's 19 games worth 20-plus points; no other team has allowed multiple games with at least that many.
You could pick freely from among the Cowboys' wide receivers in this game, but my favorite rookie pick for 2020, Lamb, gets the nod here because of his hefty usage out of the slot. He has played 82% (122-of-148) of the Cowboys' offensive snaps through two weeks and run 67-of-77 routes out of the slot, scoring 20.0 of his 28.4 PPR fantasy points out of that alignment.
The Seahawks, meanwhile, have afforded more PPR fantasy points to opposing slot receivers (75) than any other team in the league, and that's despite not having surrendered a touchdown to a slot receiver.
Unfavorable matchup: Stefon Diggs, Buffalo Bills (vs. Los Angeles Rams). Deep-tossing Josh Allen & Co. face their first truly tough matchup of 2020, as the Rams kept Dak Prescott in check in Week 1 and made Carson Wentz look pretty bad in Week 2. While I credit Allen for the improvements he has made in 2020, the Rams' cornerback duo of Jalen Ramsey and Darious Williams represents a huge step up from either the New York Jets' or Dolphins' unit from the past two weeks, and the aforementioned injury to Byron Jones indeed dragged the Dolphins' performance down and ultimately fueled Diggs' big Week 2. Combined, Ramsey and Williams have played 148 coverage snaps, have been targeted 21 times and have allowed a 12-133-0 receiving line, including an interception. Expect a bit of a comedown here.
Tight ends
Favorable matchup: Logan Thomas, Washington Football Team (at Cleveland Browns). The Browns have allowed the most PPR fantasy points to opposing tight ends through two weeks (50.8), and while 22.8 of those came from the great Mark Andrews in Week 1, would you believe that this defense afforded Cincinnati Bengals tight ends Drew Sample and C.J. Uzomah a combined 25.7 in Week 2? The Browns have struggled to contain the tight end most often when they've had a safety on them in coverage; Ronnie Harrison Jr., Karl Joseph and Andrew Sendejo have combined to allow four catches for 56 yards and two touchdowns on five targets in 48 coverage snaps. Thomas has a 29% target share (17-of-58) for Washington thus far, which is a plenty large enough role for him to make an impact.
Unfavorable matchup: Noah Fant, Denver Broncos (vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers). Speaking of large roles, Fant's is probably assumed set to expand this week, following the news that wide receiver Courtland Sutton (torn ACL) is out for the season. The problem with such an extrapolation, however, is that Fant already had played most of the past two weeks without Sutton on the field, as the wideout played on only 22% (29-of-130) of offensive snaps in Weeks 1 and 2 combined, yet Fant managed a 16% target share (11-of-69). That's a good rate, and he has done plenty with it (36.8 PPR fantasy points), but it's going to need to remain at least that high in order for him to maintain this level of week-over-week success. Sure, Fant succeeded when facing a similarly tough matchup in the Steelers in Week 2, but the Buccaneers are similarly challenging for opposing tight ends, frequently using cornerback Carlton Davis in coverage (tied for team-leading nine snaps).