Throughout the summer, I've run through a bunch of mock fantasy football drafts at ESPN. PPR, non-PPR, even 2-QB formats. 10- and 12-team leagues too. And like every manager putting together a roster, I have my favorite targets. Lions quarterback Matthew Stafford is one of them. Top-tier throwing traits in a Detroit offensive system that leads to volume and vertical opportunities. And I can get him later in drafts too. Value there.
Today, I'm going to show you the players on my draft list, in multiple tiers, for the 2020 fantasy season -- from Stafford and the QBs to the running backs, wide receivers and a tight end with legit breakout potential. Vets and rookies in here. Let's get into it.
Quarterbacks
Dak Prescott
Current ADP: 57.9 (QB6)
Mike Clay's 2020 projections: 4,287 yards, 27 TDs, 11 INTs; 49 carries, 248 yards, 4 TDs
With the quarterback position, I usually wait it out in fantasy drafts -- and I'll give you two of my top targets below based on that strategy. However, if I am going to jump a little bit earlier, then give me Prescott in a Cowboys offense that led the NFL in yards per play last season at 6.5. In addition to ranking No. 1 in air yards per attempt (9.2), Prescott also produced an on-target rate of 84.7% in 2019.
Plus, we know the Cowboys are going to live in 11 personnel this season (1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WRs) after drafting rookie wide receiver CeeDee Lamb to complement the smooth route running of Amari Cooper and the vertical ability of Michael Gallup.
The Cowboys ran 713 snaps out of 11 personnel in 2019, with a league-leading 50% successful play rate. And Prescott was dialed in with three wideouts on the field, averaging 8.47 yards per attempt while tossing 23 touchdowns. Now let's add in Prescott's second-reaction ability, plus the QB-designed run concepts in the tight red zone. Yep. For me, Prescott has more fantasy upside here than both Russell Wilson and Deshaun Watson.
Matthew Stafford, Detroit Lions
Current ADP: 126.6 (QB13)
Clay's 2020 projections: 4,217 yards, 27 TDs, 11 INTs; 33 carries, 123 yards, 1 TD
Through Week 9 last season -- before he was shut down for the year with an injury -- Stafford was straight dealing from the pocket. In fact, at that point of the season, Stafford ranked No. 2 in touchdown throws (19) and No. 4 in passing yards (2,499), while averaging 20.8 fantasy points per game.
The Lions were pushing the ball over the top of the secondary too, as Stafford's air yards per attempt jumped to 10.8 in 2019. Yeah, take your shots here to Kenny Golladay -- a legit No. 1 wide receiver, in my opinion -- and Marvin Jones Jr.
Does that continue? I think it has to with a Detroit defense that can give up some points now. Stafford could be in a position where he has to throw with volume (again) to keep this club in games. And it's about time we recognize just how underrated Stafford is at the position. He has top-tier traits as a thrower, and he will play off schedule, given his movement ability/arm talent. At his current ADP, Stafford is a prime fit for my strategy of drafting quarterbacks later.
Joe Burrow, Cincinnati Bengals
Current ADP: 152.0 (QB17)
Clay's 2020 projections: 3,698 yards, 20 TDs, 13 INTs; 54 carries, 258 yards, 2 TDs
I'm usually not really big on targeting rookie quarterbacks, but Burrow has some pretty high-level traits. And the offensive carry-over from his LSU playbook should create a quicker transition to the NFL stage. That will allow the Bengals to create more defined reads for Burrow off formation and alignment, use the play-action game and work the ball inside the numbers.
Plus, if A.J. Green can stay in the mix, Burrow gets a proven No. 1. Back in 2018, Green saw at least 10 targets or scored in seven of his nine games. Even if Green's numbers start to fade some, he's still a veteran route runner who can mesh with productive slot man Tyler Boyd and the upside of Tee Higgins as a red zone/contested-catch target.
Remember, Burrow is also taking over a unit that trailed on 70.1% of offensive snaps last season. Bad ball there. But that also means more throwing volume for the rookie in the second half of games. That's why I drafted Burrow in our 10-team, 2QB, PPR mock last week. However, don't be surprised if Burrow's numbers elevate to the point where he can be streamed in deeper leagues later this season. I think the rookie has the processing ability, and movement skills, to compete now.
Running backs
Dalvin Cook, Minnesota Vikings
Current ADP: 6.7 (RB5)
Clay's 2020 projections: 250 carries, 1,135 yards, 13 TDs; 53 receptions, 519 yards
I don't have a problem making a case for Cook as the overall RB2/3 given the volume he sees in Minnesota's run-heavy system, plus the goal-line carries and the screen targets. Last season, Cook saw 20 or more touches in 10 games, and he led the league with 29 goal-to-go carries. That's real scoring upside for a running back with the traits to find the end zone when the ball is inside the 5-yard line. It's the play-speed here with Cook, the immediate burst to hit small slices of daylight when the field is reduced. He can go.
While Cook isn't used in the pass game schematically like a Christian McCaffrey or an Alvin Kamara, let's not sleep on his ability to produce off screens in the open field. Cook caught 53 passes in 2019 while averaging 11.3 yards after the catch, which was fourth best among running backs.
Yeah, I understand the injury concerns here, as Cook has yet to play a full season in the league. However, I passed on the Vikings running back last year because of those same concerns in one of my home leagues, and it cost me big. Not again. Nope. I want the volume here with Cook in an offensive system that caters specifically to his skill set.
Josh Jacobs, Las Vegas Raiders
Current ADP: 24.2 (RB13)
Clay's 2020 projections: 264 carries, 1,151 yards, 9 TDs; 36 receptions, 280 yards, 1 TD
Jacobs didn't play like a rookie last season. Let's just get that out there, because he finished runs like we would see from an established vet. In 2019, Jacobs checked in at 4.75 yards per rush (on 242 attempts), with an average of 2.25 yards after first contact, which ranked third overall in the NFL behind Derrick Henry and Nick Chubb. He can drop the hammer at the point of attack. Pair that with his downhill speed to the hole? Yeah, that's a perfect fit for what Jon Gruden wants in his run game. And for fantasy managers, that translates to consistent volume on the ground.
Now, do I think Jacobs has more upside in non-PPR formats given his low usage as a pass game target in Gruden's system? Sure. With only 27 total targets last season (and 20 receptions), Jacobs is a fringe RB1 in deeper PPR leagues. But if you play in non-PPR leagues, Jacobs ranks in my top 10 given the run game volume and potential scoring upside here. And I love the traits he brings to the field as a runner.
Jonathan Taylor, Indianapolis Colts
Current ADP: 71.0 (RB23)
Clay's 2020 projections: 198 carries, 877 yards, 4 TDs; 28 receptions, 238 yards receiving, 1 TD
Given Taylor's explosive play ability -- he had 94 rushes of 15 yards or more during his career at Wisconsin -- straight line speed and overall fit in the Colts run game, I've been targeting the rookie in multiple mock drafts this summer. Yes, we know that veteran Marlon Mack is still in the mix with Indy. Nyheim Hines is going to see touches too. However, you don't draft a back in the second round to give him eight carries a game. Too much upside with Taylor to pass on the opportunity of the rookie developing quickly into a volume role, in my opinion.
Last season, the Colts averaged 29.4 rushing attempts per game (No. 5 in the NFL), with a rate of 27.8% first downs per rush (No. 2 behind Baltimore). Maybe those totals take a slight dip with Philip Rivers now at quarterback in Indianapolis. But the Colts feature one of the league's best offensive lines. Taylor has the traits to make an easy transition as a downhill runner, with both the footwork and the vision to find open lanes. And he has more ability than most think as a receiver (swings, screens, unders) to chip in as an option for Rivers. Really like the talent here with Taylor. He's an RB2 target for my leagues.
Anthony McFarland Jr., Pittsburgh Steelers
Current ADP: 170.6
Clay's 2020 projections: 89 carries, 366 yards, 2 TDs; 13 receptions, 102 yards receiving, 1 TD
Why McFarland? Because I want a late-round target with some potential upside in a Steelers offense that should be expected to generate points with quarterback Ben Roethlisberger back from injury. Plus, the Steelers don't have another player in the running back room with the juice that McFarland showed on his college tape. If we put together McFarland's last two seasons at Maryland, he ripped off 30 rushes of 15 yards or more. He can get moving as that ball reaches the edge or when he hits open grass coming downhill.
Yes, James Conner owns that feature role in the Steelers backfield. But Conner has also missed a total of 11 games over the past two seasons with injuries. That's why I'm taking the insurance of McFarland in the later rounds and also counting on the rookie to contribute in the pass game. Get him loose on screens, angles, more. The ability is there.
Wide receivers
Davante Adams, Green Bay Packers
Current ADP: 10.8 (WR2)
Clay's 2020 projections: 91 receptions (138 targets), 1,152 yards, 7 TDs
Despite missing four games in 2019, Adams' 997 receiving yards not only led the team in Green Bay, it was more than their next two best receiving targets combined. And coming off the NFL draft -- where the Packers surprisingly passed on the wide receiver position -- Adams is in line to see a massive target share again this season. Plus, in his past 37 regular-season games, Adams has been held to fewer than 16 PPR fantasy points just seven times.
Given those numbers and the fact that quarterback Aaron Rodgers will go outside of play design to create explosive play opportunities for Adams, I'm willing to target Adams as the next receiver off the board after Michael Thomas. Consistent production and volume from an elite route runner who has mastered the art of winning at the line of scrimmage. I'm in.
AJ Brown, Tennessee Titans
Current ADP: 47.9 (WR16)
Clay's 2020 projections: 67 receptions (110 targets), 1,045 yards, 7 TDs; 4 carries, 27 yards
To really measure Brown, we have to look at his numbers from his rookie season after quarterback Ryan Tannehill was handed the keys to the Titans' offense in Week 7. Tennessee went play-action-heavy here with Tannehill to get Brown loose on deep in-breakers and crossers. That's also why Brown led the NFL last season with 543 receiving yards -- and 91.3 fantasy points -- on receptions off play-action throws. Catch and go. Use that play strength and open-field vision to rack up numbers.
But don't sleep on Brown as just a play-action target. He can win outside on isolation routes as an X receiver to stretch the field or separate underneath on more high-percentage throws from Tannehill. And with an expected boost in overall target volume this season, Brown can produce high-end WR2 numbers given the big play ability he brings to the position.
DK Metcalf, Seattle Seahawks
Current ADP: 55.1 (WR21)
Clay's 2020 projections: 63 receptions (103 targets), 913 yards, 8 TDs; 2 carries, 11 yards
As a rookie, Metcalf ran a pretty scheme-specific route tree for the Seahawks as the X receiver. The deep overs off play-action, slants, hitches, fades, screens. Metcalf averaged 15.5 yards per catch, and the big-play ability jumped too, with the rookie posting a reception of 35 yards or more in six games. Metcalf also led the league in end zone targets last season (19). Those are schemed throws to Metcalf, plus a product of Wilson playing outside of structure to buy more time for receivers to find those open voids in the coverage.
But as Metcalf heads into his second season, he should see an increase in volume, and I also expect his role -- and route tree -- to expand. If Metcalf shows clear signs of development as a route runner, with the ability to align in different spots, then Seattle can create more matchups and scheme him open with the opportunity to run after the catch. Metcalf has the athletic profile to jump into the WR2 mix this season, despite playing in an offense that can lean too much on the run game.
Tight end
Noah Fant, Denver Broncos
Current ADP: 120.0 (TE11)
Clay's 2020 projections: 54 receptions (80 targets), 615 yards, 4 TDs; 2 carries, 7 yards
L.A.'s Tyler Higbee is a tight end I've targeted in recent mocks, and Tennessee's Jonnu Smith is one of my favorite sleeper picks at the position. However, I tagged Fant as my breakout candidate early in the summer because of his receiving traits in a Broncos' offense that has really upgraded the talent around quarterback Drew Lock. In 2019, 10 of Fant's 40 receptions went for 20 yards or more. He can stretch the seams with his 4.5 speed, and the Broncos can also set up to run in the open field on crossers/in-breakers off play-action throws. And given the new jolt of speed the Broncos added at wide receiver through the draft, there should be underneath zones for Fant to work in the middle of the field. He has the potential to post top-10 TE numbers this season.