We know the reasons Los Angeles Chargers running back Austin Ekeler is not supposed to repeat his amazing 2019 fantasy football season, when the diminutive, undrafted player from Western State in Colorado emerged in his third NFL campaign to catch 92 passes and finish as the No. 4 PPR running back in ESPN scoring. However, this is no longer a passing-down specialist, and seeing the lack of other achieved Chargers running backs, one can see a path for Ekeler to perform even better statistically. Fantasy managers are not ignoring Ekeler, but still ... he should be a first-round pick.
Much like my "Do Not Draft" column, this annual "Do Draft" list is often misconstrued for its intent. But ultimately, these are players I feel are strong values in relation to their ESPN ADP, and, well, I keep ending up with them on my fantasy football teams. Sometimes we, as fantasy managers, find out what we really believe while participating in myriad preseason drafts, real or mock, and become pushed to make quicker, intuitive decisions.
I actually think the Chargers' offense is going to be just fine sans longtime leader Philip Rivers, whether it is veteran Tyrod Taylor or eventually rookie Justin Herbert quarterbacking. While Ekeler slips a bit further than I think he deserves to in many drafts, this is certainly the case with veteran wide receiver Keenan Allen, long a PPR favorite for his steady, reliable production. Allen missed most of the 2016 season when he shredded a knee, and he took on the brittle label. Since then, he has played in every game, and over a three-year period, he has averaged 101 receptions on 148 targets, 1,262 receiving yards scored precisely six touchdowns per year. I think his new quarterbacks know to look for him.
Frankly, while everyone in the fantasy world wants to invest in individuals from the top offenses, such as the Kansas City Chiefs, Baltimore Ravens, Dallas Cowboys, New Orleans Saints and now the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, I like to look at the lesser-loved ones and see if something has changed, or if the narrative is incorrect. The Chargers were 10th in total yards last season, even while Rivers was not particularly good. The Cincinnati Bengals were obviously not good, but look at the quarterback upgrade they have now! Pittsburgh got its quarterback, well, back. Cleveland has ... well, let us just say expectations are more reasonable and now reachable.
Anyway, everyone knows about Ekeler, so let us go position by position here with my thoughts on players I continue to draft a bit better than their ADP. Perhaps you might want to look -- or better yet, practice drafting a dozen times or more -- and see if you agree!
Quarterback
Dak Prescott, Cowboys
Tom Brady, Patri ... um, Buccaneers
Matthew Stafford, Detroit Lions
Joe Burrow, Bengals
Gardner Minshew II, Jacksonville Jaguars
While I will ignore Patrick Mahomes and Lamar Jackson in the first few rounds because quarterbacks should not become that coveted in a standard, 10-team PPR format -- especially when running back is so lacking -- one can easily make the case Prescott stands alone in the next tier. He puts up big numbers every season, and the weaponry around him is even better now. Mahomes/Jackson in Round 2 or 3 is simply not for me. However, Prescott in Round 6 or 7 is amazing value. Even I might take him in Round 6, and I generally wait until the double-digit rounds for a signal-caller.
Brady is going to prove so many people wrong this season. Frankly, I only casually look at his 2019 numbers in New England. Do they mean he is done as a top passer? I think not! Look at the targets he has now in Tampa Bay! He can throw accurately, he can throw deep and he can do whatever he wants with reasonable protection. He is a top-10 fantasy quarterback.
Stafford is currently going outside the top 12 quarterbacks in ESPN ADP, which bodes well for me getting him in more leagues. There is depth at the position, as always, and Stafford -- who was on pace for perhaps his best NFL season before injury intervened in 2019 -- warrants the same statistical attention, if not more, as Drew Brees, Carson Wentz, Daniel Jones and Aaron Rodgers.
Even later, while I wouldn't say I recommend Burrow or Minshew as surefire fantasy starters per se, I do expect each will flirt with QB1 status during the season. Burrow is no typical rookie, and his ridiculous production at LSU cannot continue at this rate at the highest level, but he is mature, mobile and smart, and he will get the volume to make fantasy managers happy. Minshew is also underrated. OK, so their teams should be bad again, but both quarterbacks can run a bit and pad stats when trailing in the fourth quarter, too.
Running back
Austin Ekeler, Chargers
Nick Chubb/Kareem Hunt, Cleveland Browns
Melvin Gordon, Denver Broncos
Jonathan Taylor, Indianapolis Colts
D'Andre Swift, Lions
Tarik Cohen, Chicago Bears
James White, New England Patriots
Boston Scott, Philadelphia Eagles
J.K. Dobbins, Ravens
This is not a position of strength this season, and as a result, I have altered my usual thinking in the early rounds just a bit. I already keep taking more rookies than anyone should. Taylor and Swift might not get 20 touches in Week 1, but they are future stars. Dobbins is a star as well, and he knows it, though it might take him longer to push aside the veteran starter. Regardless, wide receiver depth is vast, so I do reach a bit in the first four rounds for running backs I can count on, and Gordon might be the lone veteran RB2 I do trust. The Broncos hardly bestowed outrageous money on him, but he will score touchdowns, he will catch passes and he has another RB1 season or two in him.
In the middle rounds in PPR formats, it is so important to remember your league rules. Chicago's Cohen averaged nearly the same PPR points per game as the "starter" David Montgomery, and I see a similar split of duties for 2020. For fantasy, however, look who goes three rounds later than the other. Cohen is a bargain, as are Scott, White and the Colts' Nyheim Hines. White caught 159 passes and 12 touchdowns the past two seasons, an easy RB1 in 2018 and an RB2 in PPR last season. Do you think Bill Belichick will suddenly stop calling pass plays for White? I do not!
As for later on in drafts, anything goes at this position, but I do try to remember which running backs I avoid and do not trust, such as Kenyan Drake, Todd Gurley II, David Johnson, Leonard Fournette, James Conner and Jordan Howard. That means I am more likely to take a chance on their backups: Chase Edmonds, Ito Smith, Duke Johnson, Ryquell Armstead, Benny Snell Jr./Anthony McFarland Jr. and Matt Breida, respectively.
Wide receiver
Courtland Sutton, Broncos
Keenan Allen, Chargers
Cooper Kupp/Robert Woods, Los Angeles Rams
T.Y. Hilton, Colts
DJ Chark Jr., Jaguars
DK Metcalf, Seattle Seahawks
Tyler Boyd, Bengals
Julian Edelman, Patriots
Marvin Jones Jr., Lions
Diontae Johnson, Pittsburgh Steelers
Anthony Miller, Bears
Hunter Renfrow, Las Vegas Raiders
While I recently ranked my top 10 rookie wide receivers, I'm trying to avoid rookies in this section, and it is also clear I have myriad wide receivers I love in the middle rounds. This might be a repercussion from ensuring my teams have two or three reliable running backs in the early rounds, too. I think Sutton can get even better, as can Chark, and Metcalf's future is certainly bright. Boyd will be Burrow's top target, not the brittle A.J. Green. Edelman could certainly have another somehow underrated 100-catch season in him. Jones and Johnson welcome their starting quarterbacks back to health. Hilton has a new QB and a friendly schedule.
Then, there is Las Vegas' Renfrow. I look at what he achieved last December, not in only his receptions and yards but also the red zone targets, and see another Edelman -- an underrated slot option. Remember, these are PPR formats, and we like those who catch 75 passes. Baltimore's Marquise Brown is not going to do this, and neither will Houston's Will Fuller V, Buffalo's John Brown, the Chiefs' Mecole Hardman, Philadelphia's DeSean Jackson, nor probably any rookies. Renfrow is my sleeper pick to do so.
Tight end
Tyler Higbee, Rams
Noah Fant, Broncos
Dallas Goedert, Eagles
Not much to say about the tight ends, really, though this season I'm not likely to wait as long to fill the position as normal. It seems to me there's not reliable depth, and I am avoiding Rob Gronkowski, Jared Cook and a few others. Higbee starred late last season and could move up a tier or more. Fant is young, athletic and ready to emerge in his second season. Either of those work for me as TE1 options in 10-team formats. A riskier Goedert is the future in Philly, not Zach Ertz, and their numbers could look so similar. Later in drafts, think about the Titans' Jonnu Smith, the Vikings' Irv Smith Jr. and Saints rookie Adam Trautman.