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Perhaps it seems simple to only me, but when the Minnesota Vikings eagerly traded Stefon Diggs to the Buffalo Bills this past offseason, they probably did so realizing they could choose his younger, less expensive replacement with that very draft pick. Then the Vikings did precisely this, eagerly securing LSU speedster Justin Jefferson, he of the 111 receptions as a junior, in the first round. This is the proverbial round peg,
While I am certainly not recommending any of the rookie wide receivers to assume a place in fantasy football lore in their very first seasons -- as that rarely happens, especially in comparison with running backs -- I do like Jefferson the most in thinking his impact should be rather immediate. Whether that results in more than 60 receptions or greater than 1,000 yards is another story. After all, no first-year wide receiver reached 60 catches in 2019, and only the Titans' A.J. Brown, thanks to a monster December, snuck past 1,000 yards.
Jefferson joins a Minnesota offense that relies heavily on the running game, but quarterback Kirk Cousins, despite the narrative, completed a positive 69.1% of his passes in 2019, good for fourth best, and it is quite easy to see how Jefferson inherits the starting spot in the slot right away. Diggs caught 63 passes for 1,130 yards and six touchdowns. It hardly means Jefferson will match this, but when I see the other top rookie wide receivers, I do not see the same immediate opportunity. Perhaps they will rock in a few years. For 2020, the Vikings have a mature, successful offense, and lack depth, so even in a pandemic, when rookies are more behind than ever in proving themselves, Jefferson matters right away.
Anyway, not to bury the original point about rookie wide receivers often ending up on fantasy waiver wires, but be careful here. Jefferson is the first rookie at his position that I do rank, but as essentially a final flex option for a fantasy roster, that last upside option before being forced to choose a defense and a kicker. In addition, I rank the No. 2 rookie wide receiver right after him.
There is nothing wrong with taking chances in a fantasy draft, and bypassing veteran wide receivers such as the Bears' Anthony Miller, Panthers' Robby Anderson or Jets' Jamison Crowder and Breshad Perriman in the later rounds is not big deal, but history tells us you might be adding them instead of your rookies by Week 4, too.
Fantasy rookie wide receiver rankings
1. Justin Jefferson, Vikings: ESPN Fantasy projects 56 catches for a tepid 694 yards and 4 touchdowns. I see a bit more in the yards and scores.
2. Jerry Jeudy, Broncos: Denver has a young quarterback and an exciting young corps of wide receivers. Perhaps one of the catchers steps up, or perhaps they all catch something like 45 passes. I think Jeudy is mature enough to stand out right away.
3. Henry Ruggs III, Raiders: Another Alabama product, nobody doubts his significant speed, nor the Raiders' need for it, but ... Derek Carr, this offense and the rookie's role are all concerns. Hunter Renfrow cannot run as fast, but he looked great in the slot in December. Is Ruggs the next DeSean Jackson?
4. CeeDee Lamb, Cowboys: The modest problem here is that while the Dallas offense is likely a more dynamic one than that of the Vikings, Broncos and Raiders, Lamb ranks a clear No. 4 option after Amari Cooper, Michael Gallup and running back Ezekiel Elliott, who also caught 54 passes.
5. Jalen Reagor, Eagles: Here is the rookie actually being tutored by DeSean Jackson to be the next DeSean Jackson. Nothing wrong with that, but in PPR formats, we like volume and catches. Reagor could electrify this offense right away, but knowing this organization, I bet he ends up somewhat buried on the depth chart until the older fellows bolt.
6. Tee Higgins, Bengals: All aboard the Joe Burrow bandwagon! He will surpass 4,000 passing yards as a rookie, so someone other than Tyler Boyd has to stay healthy and produce.
7. Brandon Aiyuk, 49ers: Getting aboard the Jimmy Garoppolo bandwagon does not have the same feel. I think Aiyuk sees plenty of chances returning punts and kicks, but in terms of targets, even with Deebo Samuel questionable, it is tough to assume volume.
8. Laviska Shenault Jr., Jaguars: A bigger fellow than most on this list, Shenault has to battle several disappointing veterans for targets, so it might take half a season before he pushes the likes of Dede Westbrook aside.
9. Michael Pittman Jr., Colts: Reminds me of Shenault in that he is big and wide and joins a team with veterans in his way, but not exactly exciting ones.
10 Denzel Mims, Jets: Listen, all these rookie wide receivers looked fantastic in college, so it comes down to who can push their way into meaningful snaps right away. The Jets did not need to sign Perriman, but they did. It hardly means Mims cannot push him aside.