Fantasy managers often make the mistake of assuming that a running back selected in the early rounds of the NFL draft automatically vaults to the top of the team's depth chart and, thus, becomes statistically relevant. While there is generally an expectation of immediate volume for the highest of the first-round selections -- and we have seen this in recent seasons with Saquon Barkley, Leonard Fournette and Christian McCaffrey -- after that, anything goes. Teams simply do what they desire, often with little reasoning, and fantasy managers waste their draft picks.
Just last season, after the Raiders' Josh Jacobs and Eagles' Miles Sanders provided ample fantasy value as the lone running backs chosen in the first two rounds, the third round included five others. Look at the difference in opportunity and performance from this varied assemblage: the Bears' David Montgomery and Bills' Devin Singletary had some moments, but clearly not enough; the Vikings' Alexander Mattison did his job but was mostly a backup, so not enough for fantasy managers; the Rams' Darrell Henderson Jr. and Patriots' Damien Harris never got a legit chance.
There was nary a running back off the board in the first round of the 2020 NFL draft until the Super Bowl champion Kansas City Chiefs secured dynamic Clyde Edwards-Helaire with the final pick, and then a whopping nine running backs went in Rounds 2 and 3. Fantasy managers love dreaming about immediate impact for the rookie running backs, and they should to some degree, since so many NFL organizations seem to view the position as mostly interchangeable parts and loathe investing major money into their choices.
Then again, just like in fantasy, teams do not care which round players come from once they join the organization. That is when the real competition begins. So how should we decide which rookie running backs make the cut for our rankings and teams? Well, study the players, their potential fit in the NFL organization and offense, who else matters in said organization and offense, and then just hope for the best. Just remember that most rookie running backs do not pan out right away, so it is a gamble to load up on them.
For this exercise, here is one man's opinion on the rookie running backs worth rostering for re-draft purposes this season, assuming a standard ESPN (10 teams, PPR) draft. It hardly means someone shocking from the later rounds cannot emerge, or an undrafted Phillip Lindsay type cannot push his way into relevancy, but in a general sense, we know which newcomers should matter. Or do we?
1. Clyde Edwards-Helaire, Kansas City Chiefs: The LSU product seems like such a perfect fit in a dominant offense, with elite pass-catching skills and open-field ability, so most already view him as a safe RB2. I concur. Now that Damien Williams has opted out for the season, the rookie should see even clearer sailing for touches, though to be fair, DeAndre Washington is not that much different than Williams. The offense is the key here, not the competition.
2. D'Andre Swift, Detroit Lions: A decade ago, when running backs were viewed quite differently, Swift and the next fellow on the list would have been high-first-round NFL draft choices. Now, they slide a bit, but one should hardly misjudge their talent and opportunity based on that reason. Swift can do it all as a three-down workhorse, proving this while at Georgia, and I conclude the Lions saw enough of Kerryon Johnson that when they say there is real competition for starter volume, they only kind of mean it. Swift earns RB2 status for me.
3. Jonathan Taylor, Indianapolis Colts: I think the Indianapolis situation is very similar to that of Detroit. Taylor dominated the Big Ten while at Wisconsin and is more than capable of handling an every-down load, piling up yards after contact, catching passes, blocking, handling goal-line attempts -- everything. The Colts have better running back depth than the Lions, with Marlon Mack and Nyheim Hines as reasonable insurance, thus it is fair to rank Swift a bit better. I think Swift and Taylor each surpass past 1,200 scrimmage yards.
4. Cam Akers, Los Angeles Rams: The aforementioned Henderson remains a highly valuable Ram (we think), a year after the organization used pick No. 70 to secure him. Akers went at pick No. 51, but does that matter? Let the best player win! I think this is a potential timeshare, because Henderson profiles as a dangerous receiver out of the backfield, while Akers is a bigger man and breaks tackles in a physical way. I think these players can coexist in an offense that must bounce back, but I view Akers as more of a flex option than a sure thing.
5. J.K. Dobbins, Baltimore Ravens: I guess it depends how you feel about veteran Mark Ingram II, because it seems unlikely he approaches another 15 touchdowns on rather limited volume, as he did last season. Dobbins is clearly the future star here and the better upside pick for today too. My take: If the running backs you secure earlier seem to offer health and statistical security, then ignore Ingram and wait a bit for Dobbins, who offers RB1 upside in this awesome offense. However, Ingram is safer for flex purposes, if that makes sense.
6. Ke'Shawn Vaughn, Tampa Bay Buccaneers: A committee-type approach likely awaits here, with the smaller Vaughn perhaps assuming the ol' James White pass-catching role from New England, while Ronald Jones II handles early-down work. You might have heard this club signed Tom Brady. Vaughn and Jones are roughly the same age, so no advantage there. Jones was rather inconsistent in his second NFL season, but I cannot see the franchise easily pushing him aside yet.
7. Zack Moss, Buffalo Bills: I rank Singletary, entering his second season, as an RB2 but with a mild asterisk. Again, the Bills need not show any loyalty here or worry about which rounds they selected the candidates. They can win now with this defense and running philosophy. Moss could offer a better fit for the offense as a power option, and he certainly figures to be in the mix for goal-line carries right away, though this team uses its quarterback for that as well. I guess my point is I like Singletary, but it would hardly be a shock if Moss takes his place. This is a situation to handcuff, if you can.
8. Antonio Gibson, Washington: Perhaps new coach Ron Rivera desires to utilize one of his running backs in the McCaffrey receiving role? Well, nobody claims that Gibson is that good, but he is the most electric fit of Rivera's weapons, should the team see fit to give him these chances.
9. Joshua Kelley, Los Angeles Chargers: Austin Ekeler delivered monster numbers in 2019, and he should do a reasonable facsimile again, but there is an opening for a bigger back to slide in for early down and goal-line carries. Kelley seems a far better fit for the role than Justin Jackson, who enters his third year sans distinction.
10. AJ Dillon, Green Bay Packers: Dillon, despite costing the organization a controversial second-round pick, is clearly behind Aaron Jones and Jamaal Williams on the Packers' depth chart, but Jones can be a free agent in a year. I see Dillon as a strong dynasty investment, but offering little value in 2020 unless Jones gets hurt.
Other choices: The Steelers boast a crowded backfield, so it could take some time before Anthony McFarland Jr. gets to show his skills. Still, if James Conner gets hurt, anything is possible. ... With Darrynton Evans in Tennessee, it is hard to see how he gets on the field as long as Derrick Henry is rolling along. Again, a lot can change with Henry after this season, so consider Evans in dynasty formats. ... La'Mical Perine could be the future for the Jets, but as long as Le'Veon Bell is around, that future has to wait. Bell tends to avoid sharing his touches much. ... DeeJay Dallas might have made the top-10 list here if the Seahawks had not signed boring veteran Carlos Hyde. But they did.