A wild NFL offseason has made it quite easy for fantasy football managers (and analysts, for that matter) to change their minds about certain players. After all, look at all the changes! Tom Brady is now a member of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers -- and that might take a while to get used to, by the way. His old tight end pal came out of retirement to join him. DeAndre Hopkins, Melvin Gordon, Philip Rivers and myriad others moved on to new teams, some even by choice. And it seems like every team added a wide receiver in the first round of the draft. These are strange days indeed!
Still, I find that overreaction runs rampant whenever any individual moves to another team, and that is why I think it's important to avoid this practice. Be measured. Be disciplined. Sure, I have changed my mind about quite a few teams and individuals since the Super Bowl, but with the following bigger-name players, perhaps I will surprise you a bit.
I have not changed my mind about these fellows, or if I have, it's only by a little bit. Allow me to explain.
Quarterback
Deshaun Watson, Houston Texans: OK, so the fellow running the organization strangely decided that the awesome WR named Hopkins simply had to go -- and strikingly little came back in return for him. Watson remains an elite quarterback! Typically valued as a top-three fantasy QB, I'll argue that I did not, in fact, move Watson down in my rankings, but rather others simply passed him. Watson remains eminently capable of 4,000 passing yards (as he had in 2018), 26 touchdowns (like in the past two seasons) and significant work as a runner (964 rushing yards, 12 TDs over the past two years). Hopkins is elite, and no single Texan seems likely to approach his individual statistical achievement, but this is a veteran group that can keep Watson at a lofty fantasy level.
Kyler Murray, Arizona Cardinals: While I saw inconsistency and an odd reluctance to run with the football in his rookie season, the fact is I had already moved Murray up in my 2020 rankings before the Hopkins heist. The upside is glorious. Murray threw for nearly 4,000 yards as a rookie, and we know he can make magic with his legs, if so desired. Adding Hopkins clearly helps, but I cannot make a case to move Murray ahead of Lamar Jackson or Patrick Mahomes -- at least not yet. I guess my point is that the Hopkins trade just reinforced a Murray ranking many of us already had.
Dak Prescott, Dallas Cowboys: Similar to Murray, I already liked Prescott for fantasy purposes, and the addition of hotshot rookie receiver CeeDee Lamb can move the proverbial needle only so much. The Cowboys still play with only one football, I believe, unless Jerry Jones managed to push through a secret rule change. Prescott was a top-five fantasy QB before the draft. Little has changed.
Aaron Rodgers, Green Bay Packers: Whoa, they drafted his replacement! Things are gonna get so real now! C'mon. He is Aaron Rodgers. He is neither losing his job nor using this extra motivation to return to a top-three fantasy QB level. He is fine: a fantasy starter, but not his old self either. As for his 2022 destination, however, we will deal with that later.
Running back
Austin Ekeler, Los Angeles Chargers: I just love Ekeler and did so all of last season, even as many pundits predicted significant statistical regression. It never happened. Now, however, Ekeler boasts a new and lucrative long-term contract, and Gordon has skipped town for Denver. The mistake some fantasy managers will make is assuming that Ekeler's numbers will somehow get significantly better. Hold on there, even sans Gordon. Someone else will run the ball, be it Justin Jackson or rookie Joshua Kelley Someone else might catch some passes too so that Ekeler does not burn out. I might rank Ekeler higher than most, but still not in the top five.
Melvin Gordon, Denver Broncos: In a fantasy vacuum, I would prefer Ekeler, but Gordon should thrive in Denver, much as he did with the Chargers. No, I do not believe incumbent Phillip Lindsay will be more than a pass-catcher out of the backfield, so Gordon should see ample touches. In other words, no on the time-share, especially at the goal line.
Kenyan Drake, Arizona Cardinals: Some might view him as a top-10 fantasy running back after the David Johnson trade, but I still see a player who is wildly erratic and inconsistent. Drake blew up for a few December games, and that is the lasting impression for many, I suppose. The same thing occurred late in the 2017 campaign, and it led to so many of us wondering why we drafted him so generously in 2018. I find it hard to trust that a monster season is pending for Drake just because the team traded away someone that rushed for a mere 345 yards and two scores.
Todd Gurley II, Atlanta Falcons: New team, same old long-term condition in his left knee. Nobody can take away the amazing run he had in Los Angeles, when Gurley scored 40 touchdowns and nearly reached 4,000 total yards in a two-season span, but he was definitely not that player last season, and it seems unlikely the magic is returning. Choose to blame the Rams' leaky offensive line if you like, but Gurley averaged only 3.8 yards per carry and showed next to nothing in the passing game because his knee is a big problem. The Falcons did not give him Melvin Gordon money either. Gurley got a modest one-year deal. I am calling Ito Smith one of the top running back handcuffs. Do not be fooled again!
Wide receiver
Julian Edelman, New England Patriots: The initial instinct for many regarding Edelman and his pass-catching buddy James White was to drop them down several rounds in the rankings, or to simply ignore them. I get it. There is the unknown identity of the next quarterback -- the one replacing Brady -- and perhaps young Jarrett Stidham is terrible and unprepared for the opportunity (though I bet he actually does just fine). Perhaps he loses the job to Brian Hoyer or maybe someone else comes in. Then again, one would think a new QB would use his weapons. Very smart people run the Patriots. Edelman and White combined for 248 targets and 172 receptions. They get open. These are not home run hitters. I think both will remain productive, regardless of who calls the plays in the huddle.
A.J. Green, Cincinnati Bengals: Here comes Joe Burrow to save the day, and at last word Green is healthy and ready for the season. OK, I actually believe Burrow is going to throw for 4,000 yards this season. He might not win much, but that won't be his fault. Still, how can anyone trust that Green is going to play a major role here? Green missed the 2019 season with multiple injuries. He also missed half of 2018, so that means he has played in 10 or fewer games in three of the past four seasons. Oh, and by the way, he is unhappy with his contract and turns 32 this summer. Tyler Boyd I rank nicely. Green I rank, but not in the first 10 rounds.
Will Fuller V, Houston Texans: Perhaps there is a theme here. Hopkins is gone. There goes 150 targets and bountiful numbers across the board. Fuller, however, has missed 20 of 52 games over the past three seasons with various physical maladies. I do not doubt the statistical upside, but it is foolish to presume that the absence of a great player all of a sudden keeps Fuller healthy. It overrates him.