A much-anticipated Week 13 commences on Thanksgiving Day, when many of us will be stuffing ourselves with turkey, myriad starches and desserts -- while also carving up a trio of NFL games. The night game features the Nos. 2 and 3 wide receivers selected way back when in ESPN average live drafts: Michael Thomas and Julio Jones. One of them is on pace for record-setting numbers and the other is again struggling to find the end zone.
Thomas is, incredibly, well on pace to shatter the NFL record for receptions in a season, contributing 10 catches for 101 yards and a touchdown as his New Orleans Saints overcame Christian McCaffrey and the Carolina Panthers for a 34-31 win on Sunday. According to my colleague Tristan H. Cockcroft, Thomas is just the fourth wide receiver to score 15 PPR points in each of his team's first 11 games of a season. He scored 26.1 points on Sunday and now boasts a five-game stretch with 22-plus points. With five games left, he has already surpassed 100 catches and 1,200 receiving yards. He could score double-digit touchdowns in a season for the first time in his fantastic career.
Jones went right after Thomas in typical 2019 drafts. An investor could have easily justified picking Jones instead. He last scored a touchdown in Week 3, continuing an annoying trend from the past three seasons. He has now gone eight games sans score, culminating in Sunday's rather disappointing output of five catches for 68 yards for the Atlanta Falcons in their 35-22 loss to the defensively absent Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Oh, and he also hurt his right shoulder. You might recall Jones angering fantasy investors in 2017 when he scored only three touchdowns, but that hardly impacted his future ADP. Last season, he failed to score a touchdown in the first seven games of the season, only to deliver eight of them over the next nine games.
Is this year different? Perhaps not, and nobody would advise to bench Jones in any fantasy league. Still, there is something to be said for weekly consistency, and with Jones, well, this is Year 3 of erratic TD uncertainty. Sure, the catches and yards are generally there and he entered Week 12 among the top 10 wide receivers in per-game PPR scoring, but should we not desire more? Both Thomas and Jones should be great. They are great, but only one of them is delivering great statistics. Enjoy what Thomas is achieving, but if you drafted Jones instead, well, it happens. Nobody saw this coming, but with Jones, perhaps we should in the future.
Falcons QB Matt Ryan deserves some of the blame here, to be sure. After surpassing 30 points in Weeks 5-6, he has somehow averaged a mere 10 points over the four games since, which is not nearly enough for any fantasy manager. OK, so you could bench Ryan in a fantasy league. The bye weeks are over and there are other options to be found. At running back, the loss of injured Devonta Freeman led to Brian Hill becoming a popular pickup -- and that has been a bust of a free-agent addition so far. Perhaps the problem with Jones is really those around him, but that does not account for his struggles in past seasons.
Regardless, the Saints-Falcons game figures to be the highest-scoring matchup on Thanksgiving, as we can probably surmise that the Saints are going to score far more points than they did against the Falcons in Week 10 -- a stunning 26-9 loss -- and the Falcons will have to keep up. No Jones investor should bench him unless his shoulder injury keeps him out, but some might ponder whether he still belongs in the elite class. Then again, while Jones last scored a touchdown against the Saints in the final week of the 2016 season, he has averaged 113.8 receiving yards over his past five games against them, with the 79 yards from Week 10 serving as his lowest effort. That will work.
Both Ryan and Jones were merely average statistically in the Week 10 victory. It sure seems unlikely that the Falcons will repeat the defensive performance -- or the offensive one. Brees has tossed six TD passes in the two games since then, and Thomas is unstoppable. The Saints are going to score. The Falcons will need to keep up, and that means Ryan and Jones figure to perform better. Again, nobody would recommend sitting Julio Jones, but he is barely among the top 20 wide receivers in fantasy since Week 4 began, mainly due to the lack of touchdowns. We sure could use one or two on Thanksgiving night.
Here are more fantasy themes to watch in Week 13, and oh, pass the green bean casserole, please.
Battle of quarterbacks, good and otherwise
While Brees and Ryan both have boasted exceptional fantasy credentials for the past decade-plus, the other Thursday quarterbacks offer, shall we say, a mixed bag. The first game of the holiday matches embattled Chicago Bears starter Mitchell Trubisky versus Detroit Lions fill-in Jeff Driskel. We presume these will be the starting passers, though Trubisky has been in a seemingly constant state of potential benching for weeks in favor of unaccomplished veteran Chase Daniel. Meanwhile, the Lions could get Matthew Stafford back at some point from a back injury, but probably not this week. These offenses have mostly underwhelmed, but perhaps Lions fill-in running back Bo Scarbrough remains available in your league. You can watch him play live!
A pair of top-10 fantasy quarterbacks meet in the middle game. Yep, the Buffalo Bills' Josh Allen is a top-10 fantasy quarterback. Dallas Cowboys star Dak Prescott entered Week 12 averaging 23.2 points per game, third at his position, but then a combination of the New England Patriots' defense and some wintry weather intervened Sunday. Prescott faces a difficult Bills defense, but weather and fans will not be an issue since the game is in Dallas. The Bills have allowed more than 21 points in just one game this season, so it will be interesting to see whether Prescott bounces back. Meanwhile, Amari Cooper entered Week 11 as the No. 4 fantasy wide receiver for the season and caught nary a pass in Massachusetts. We'll see how he does. Like Prescott, Allen adds significant statistical value with his legs, as he has rushed for seven touchdowns. Yet fantasy managers somehow continue to underrate him each week.
Bad behavior rematch
It was only two weeks ago that Cleveland Browns DE Myles Garrett and Pittsburgh Steelers QB Mason Rudolph were involved in an unfortunate melee late in Cleveland's win. With emotions perhaps still running high for the too-early rematch, perhaps it is best if neither plays a role. Garrett is serving a suspension for at least the rest of the season. Rudolph went to the bench during the third quarter of an eventual 16-10 win over the winless Cincinnati Bengals on Sunday, with third-stringer Devlin Hodges taking over and throwing for 118 yards (although 79 of them came on just one play). Steelers coach Mike Tomlin figures to announce his Week 13 starter on Monday, and it would be a surprise if Hodges does not get the nod.
Fantasy managers will be watching the health reports of RB James Conner (shoulder) and WR JuJu Smith-Schuster (concussion/knee). The streaking Browns boast stars across their offense in rejuvenated QB Baker Mayfield, a top-10 running back in Nick Chubb (with Kareem Hunt a reasonable flex option) and a pair of receivers that sure look like WR2 options these days in Jarvis Landry and Odell Beckham Jr. -- and, yes, it is fair to judge them in either order. The Steelers' sputtering offense lacks clarity all around. Hodges, Benny Snell Jr. and James Washington, anyone? I guess Snell is a worthy flex choice if Conner sits, but Conner investors would prefer it if their RB1 returns quickly.
Monday madness
The final game of Week 13 pits the Minnesota Vikings versus the Seattle Seahawks, and the focus for fantasy managers will be on Russell Wilson and a pair of top wide receivers. Wilson averaged 24.9 fantasy points over his first nine games, but has totaled 26.1 points in his two games since then. In addition, he threw for only 72 yards in a 21-7 home win over these same Vikings in Week 14 of the 2018 season, which is probably an outlier. Few would sit the MVP candidate this time around.
Meanwhile, the Vikings' Adam Thielen last caught a pass in Week 7, but he could be ready to return from his hamstring injury. Of course, since it is a Monday game, fantasy managers would like to know before the six Thursday teams suit up -- and definitely by the start of Sunday's games, just in case they need to consider other choices. Meanwhile, the Seahawks' Tyler Lockett, who entered Week 12 as the No. 7 wide receiver in fantasy, caught only one pass in Sunday's win over the Philadelphia Eagles. Was that due to the weather, the Eagles' defense or the shin injury that Lockett suffered in Week 11? I find it difficult, as with Jones, to sit either Thielen or Lockett if they are active, but fantasy managers would like answers for the playoffs -- which for many leagues begin as soon as Week 14.