Matchups play a huge part in fantasy managers' weekly lineup decisions. When choosing between two (or more) similarly talented players, the decision often boils down to: Which one has the best matchup?
We use that word -- matchups -- a lot. But what, exactly, constitutes a favorable or unfavorable matchup?
This is where the "Matchups Map" comes in. Each week, I'll provide a schedule-independent method to determine strength of positional matchups, using the most recent, relevant data. Check back for updated numbers each week, including matchups highlights at each position -- both favorable and unfavorable -- based upon those statistics. For these purposes, we will use PPR (point per reception) scoring.
The maps include two measures: The first, "Rk," is my personal ranking of how favorable/unfavorable I consider that positional matchup; the second, "Adj. FPA," reflects how far above or below a player's average that defense held opponents at that position. All data is from the past five weeks' NFL action.
Finally, a caveat: Matchups are only one ingredient in my rankings formula. Not every favorable matchup should be exploited; not every unfavorable matchup should be avoided. To get the most complete recipe for whom to start and sit, consult my weekly rankings.
Quarterbacks
Favorable matchup: Matthew Stafford, Detroit Lions (at Oakland Raiders). He sure looks different this year. Stafford has taken more deep shots downfield than ever, his 10.8 yard average depth of target a career high by more than 2 full yards, and his 48 throws of 20 or more yards beyond the line of scrimmage through seven games matching his entire season total from 2018 (that in 16 games). He has done so despite any significant losses in terms of accuracy, his completion and interception rates on all passes as well as vertical throws (15-plus yards) either exceeding or well within range of his career numbers. The Raiders, meanwhile, have been awful defending deep throws, allowing a 57% completion rate and eight touchdowns on throws 20-plus yards downfield, both worst in the league. Overall, the Raiders have allowed 107.2 fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks in the past five weeks combined, fourth most in the league, despite having spent their bye week during that time.
Unfavorable matchup: Lamar Jackson, Baltimore Ravens (versus New England Patriots). Say hello to Jackson's first truly tough-as-nails test of 2019. While his Week 3 matchup against the Kansas City Chiefs was below average and Week 5 against the Pittsburgh Steelers was bottom-quarter, these Patriots have been among the toughest of the tough as far as quarterbacks go. This defense hasn't allowed greater than an 11.6 point fantasy day to any of eight quarterbacks thus far, nor more than 9.8 points accrued merely on passing plays by the position, and while the competition has been light -- the likes of Luke Falk, Colt McCoy and Daniel Jones, to name three -- it's not as though Jackson is the most polished passer around. Both his 63% completion and 2.3% interception rates are worse than league average, and he got picked three times in the aforementioned Steelers game. Jackson's massive rushing contributions practically guarantee him a top-10 place among quarterbacks, but that 11.4 point performance against said Steelers underscores the limit on his upside.
Running backs
Favorable matchup: Jordan Howard, Philadelphia Eagles (versus Chicago Bears). The loss of Akiem Hicks (IR, ineligible to return before Week 15) was expected to be a big hit to the Bears' run defense, but few anticipated it being so statistically dramatic. Consider that in 144 defensive plays with Hicks on the field this season, most of those in Weeks 1-5, the Bears limited opponents to a 2.8 yards-per-carry average and no rushing scores. In 301 plays with Hicks on the sidelines, opponents have averaged 3.9 yards with seven rushing touchdowns, with Latavius Murray's 32.0 PPR fantasy point performance of Week 7 coming in a game fully missed by Hicks and Josh Jacobs' 29.3 pointer in Week 5 coming in a game where Hicks played only eight snaps before getting hurt. This is the reason for Howard getting the nod over Miles Sanders -- though Sanders' shoulder injury enhances Howard's prospects from a volume standpoint -- because the Bears' defensive struggles recently have centered almost entirely upon the running game. During the past five weeks, the Bears have been a well-below-average matchup for opposing quarterbacks, wide receivers and tight ends, below-average for pass-catching running backs (1.4 PPR fantasy points per target, seventh fewest), but second best for running backs overall. And we all know that, at minimum, Howard will get those critical goal-line opportunities.
Unfavorable matchup: Chris Carson, Seattle Seahawks (versus Tampa Bay Buccaneers). This isn't a flat "sit him" endorsement, being that Carson sports the position's seventh-largest offensive snaps played rate (71%) and third-largest rushing attempts per game average (19.9), but it's at least possible that the Buccaneers will recognize the leaning of this defensive matchup and go with the flow. The Buccaneers have the league's widest divide in adjusted fantasy points allowed between quarterbacks and running backs in either direction, and have been the best schedule-adjusted defense against running backs, whether using full-season or past-five-weeks data. Defensive linemen William Gholston, Ndamukong Suh and Vita Vea have been an effective brick wall against the run, with Christian McCaffrey (7.3 PPR fantasy points, Week 2) and Saquon Barkley (7.7, Week 3, granted in only 23 offensive snaps before getting hurt) both posting their season-worst totals against the Buccaneers. Alvin Kamara (16.9, Week 5) and Derrick Henry (7.3, Week 8) also had forgettable games against this defense, so temper your expectations for Carson.
Wide receivers
Favorable matchup: Robby Anderson, New York Jets (at Miami Dolphins). I've written previously about Anderson's buy-low potential with his extremely favorable upcoming schedule, and that stretch of soft matchups begins with this one. The season-ending injury to Dolphins cornerback Xavien Howard (knee, IR) considerably upgrades what was an extremely favorable matchup for Jets wide receivers, even had Howard been available for Week 9. The Dolphins, for the season, have afforded the third-highest PPR fantasy points per target rate to the position (2.2), and the most to opposing WR1s (3.3), with that latter lead by a margin of nearly a full point. If it's Eric Rowe replacing Howard and joining Ryan Lewis on the outside for Week 9, be aware that the duo has combined to allow 24 catches, 377 yards and three touchdowns on 231 total coverage snaps, ranking among the least effective cornerbacks to date.
Unfavorable matchup: Odell Beckham Jr., Cleveland Browns (at Denver Broncos). As with Carson in the running backs section, this isn't an across-the-board endorsement to bench Beckham, though it's something to consider in daily fantasy or on teams with an abundance of wide receiver talent. The Broncos have been the league's second-toughest schedule-adjusted matchup for the position this season (minus-9.9 adjusted fantasy points allowed, second only to the San Francisco 49ers' minus-12.3), and the toughest for opposing WR1s (minus-4.7). Beckham, meanwhile, has a quarterback who has had trouble locating the deep ball all year, not to mention a pattern of playing directly into the hands of his matchups. Facing his two toughest, for example, he scored 5.0 PPR fantasy points against the 49ers (Week 5) and 10.2 against the Patriots (Week 8). He should get his usual 7-10 targets, but might struggle to turn them into much.
Tight ends
Favorable matchup: T.J. Hockenson, Detroit Lions (at Oakland Raiders). Since his 25.1 PPR fantasy point NFL debut in Week 1, Hockenson's 2019 has been relatively quiet, making it difficult to trust him in fantasy. He has averaged just 4.4 targets per game, and is coming off a one-target, 3.1 point Week 8. Still, a Raiders matchup might be just what he needs to get his season back on track, as in addition to their struggles against the deep pass, this defense has had historical troubles reining in opposing tight ends. Despite Daryl Worley's shift into a hybrid role to help in that regard a few weeks ago, the Raiders nevertheless surrendered 23.8 PPR fantasy points on six targets to Darren Fells in Week 8 and 16.5 points on four targets to Jimmy Graham in Week 7, continuing to rank among the position's most favorable matchups.
Unfavorable matchup: Zach Ertz, Philadelphia Eagles (versus Chicago Bears). His disappointing season continued in Week 8, as he posted his third consecutive game beneath 10 PPR fantasy points, the first time he has had a streak that long in three years (2016 Weeks 5-8). Ertz has been ceding targets to Dallas Goedert, who is on pace for 58 this season, and if Ertz is no longer a rock-solid, 10-targets-a-game tight end, then he's going to be considerably less attractive a fantasy play when the matchup on paper is tough. This one qualifies: The Bears have held Darren Waller (Week 5) and Hunter Henry (Week 8) to a combined 16.6 PPR fantasy points on 11 targets in the past four weeks alone.