While accurate documentation remains elusive, it sure seems like whenever fantasy managers start to feel confident that Tampa Bay Buccaneers QB Jameis Winston is finally ready to turn that proverbial corner into statistical stardom, he delivers a performance that reminds all of us why our skepticism remains. Sometimes, Winston even holds back one or more of his receivers -- we'll get to that in a moment. However, Sunday's loss in New Orleans was a bit frustrating for fantasy managers who were once again drawn in by the lure of Winston. Will anything change in Week 6 in a rematch of Week 2 (this time around in London), for a divisional game against the Carolina Panthers?
C'mon, man! If you have followed Winston for years you have to know this lack of consistency is the norm!
For example, Winston followed up a demolition of the terrible New York Giants defense in Week 3 with an even better game in Week 4 against the defensively proficient Los Angeles Rams, leading his team to a stunning 55 points on the road. Winston even earned NFC Offensive Player of the Week honors for the Rams win. He threw for 765 yards and seven touchdowns over those two games, with only two turnovers. That is the good Winston. He does have the ability, after all, to play great and make his fantasy investors proud. The problem is that a visit from bad Winston is always just around the corner.
The box score will show that Winston played error-free football against the Saints, and officially, he did. However, Winston entered the fourth quarter with only 105 passing yards. A pair of earlier interceptions that he threw did not count due to defensive penalties -- but we all saw them happen. There was also the requisite Winston fumble, though his own offense bailed him out by making the recovery. Still, Winston barely surpassed 200 passing yards, marking the third game out of five in which he has underachieved in that department -- including Week 2 in Carolina when he ended up with just 13.2 PPR fantasy points.
Meanwhile, we still await the first Mike Evans reception of the weekend. A well-renowned top-10 fantasy wide receiver, Evans followed up his big games with a whole bunch of nothing, despite boasting an advantageous matchup via Mike Clay's weekly report. Oh, Evans saw three targets, but he did not catch any of them. According to Tristan H. Cockcroft, nearly half of Evans' nine-worst single-game performances have come against the Saints.
Evans is a fantastic player, but one burdened with an inconsistent, unreliable quarterback. Fantasy managers can and should separate the two. After all, A.J. Green produced all those great seasons for the Cincinnati Bengals, despite Andy Dalton quarterbacking. Evans should be fine in aggregate, even as his managers gripe about what happened Sunday. An average season for him features 79 catches for 1,220 yards and eight touchdowns. These figures remain within his grasp, even though we would prefer to see better week-to-week consistency.
Do not even ask about TE O.J. Howard. He's a tremendous talent, who led his position in yards per catch and yards per target last season. He seemed primed for a major breakout this fall. Well, Howard caught one more pass than Evans did Sunday and now has 11 catches for the season. I would tell you to move on (as more than 20% of managers in ESPN leagues already have done), but tight end is not a deep position. For all we know, Howard will go nuts in Week 6 against the Panthers. Then again, in Week 2 at Carolina, Howard caught nary a pass on nary a target -- just like you and me.
My Week 6 expectation for the talented-yet-erratic Winston is that anything is possible, which in turn means it is dangerous to trust him. You might not want to read that, but it is true. We never know what Winston is going to do from game to game, regardless of the matchup. Sure, all quarterbacks produce the occasional stinkers, right? Tom Brady managed only 3.7 fantasy points in Week 4 at Buffalo. However, he has scored 20-plus fantasy points in his other four games and figures to enjoy the Week 6 matchup against the aforementioned Giants.
Winston looked as if though he had finally figured out coach Bruce Arians' offense, and the Saints entered Sunday's game permitting close to a 30.0 QB fantasy points-per-week average. On Sunday, Winston scored just 17.5 and, sans Saints defensive miscues, that number could have been far worse. I think Evans and fellow WR Chris Godwin can coexist, but Evans has reached 20 PPR points in only one game while Godwin has done so three times. I would still go with Evans first, but both playmakers should enjoy WR2 status. As for Howard, we are past the point of wondering if it is worth rostering him.
With Winston, I stopped short of making him a top-10 fantasy QB in Week 5 (with the Thursday quarterbacks included) because we have all been disappointed in him so many times before. We may or may not be disappointed in him again in Week 6, but rest assured -- at some point down the road, we most assuredly will.
Here are more fantasy themes to watch in Week 6:
Short week
A weekly section now in this space, this Thursday's "short week" features Brady, at age 42, hosting 22-year-old Daniel Jones. It figures to go well for the highly favored home team, but the real theme of this game for fantasy managers will be injury updates on Saquon Barkley. Barkley, the No. 1 pick in most fantasy drafts, practiced on a limited basis entering Week 5. His absence from a badly sprained ankle looks like it might be considerably shorter than expected. He ultimately did not play Sunday, but he might play this Thursday. My take is that if Barkley is active, I play him, even without the promise of full-time snaps. It is not as if the Giants have a prime Tiki Barber standing in the way, and Wayne Gallman likely will miss Week 6 after leaving Sunday's game prematurely due to a concussion. Barkley might not be among my top-five running backs this week, for it's a tough road game against an undefeated team ready to prey on a rookie quarterback. Still, I'll play Barkley in fantasy.
Luke, I am your quarterback
The New York Jets eventually scored a touchdown in Sunday's blowout loss in Philadelphia, but it came late in the game when the result was not in doubt. Fill-in QB Luke Falk has seen little success and Sam Darnold, still recovering from mononucleosis, is a major upgrade even sans reasonable practice time. Perhaps Darnold makes his return in Week 6 in a home game against the spiraling Dallas Cowboys. We would not recommend Darnold in fantasy, but his presence has to help Le'Veon Bell, Robby Anderson, Demaryius Thomas -- yeah, he's a Jet -- and others. Anderson should have lit up the Eagles secondary, but he caught only one pass for 16 yards. Now is not the time to drop Anderson. Things have to improve.
Houston does not have a problem
Those fantasy managers starting DeAndre Hopkins might complain about how the Houston Texans could score 53 points and yet somehow arguably the top wide receiver in the sport ended up with a mere 15.8 PPR fantasy points. Don't worry! Will Fuller V is not going to surpass 50 PPR fantasy points often -- or probably ever again, for that matter. Hopkins last scored a touchdown in Week 1, but seven catches for 88 yards is a lot better than what Mike Evans produced Sunday. QB Deshaun Watson embarrassed the Atlanta Falcons for 426 passing yards and five touchdowns, with Fuller doing most of the work. These fellows can all coexist nicely, especially with another potential fireworks show looming in Week 6 at Kansas City. I remain perplexed why Duke Johnson remains so quiet in the passing game, but the Texans' passing game is fine.
The winner's circle
Most would proclaim that the Miami Dolphins (coming off their bye week) are the NFL's worst team, but three other clubs remain winless as well. That should change in Week 6 when Washington -- with a new (and perhaps improved) coaching situation after Monday's news -- travels to South Florida to face the Dolphins. Sure, a tie is always possible, but there has to be someone to watch for fantasy purposes, right? Right?!? Miami's top fantasy scorer so far is the barely-rostered WR Preston Williams. Meanwhile, RB Kenyan Drake is among the most dropped at his position. Both should be useful in Week 6 and perhaps Drake still ends up getting traded to a needy contender. Meanwhile, Washington offers WR Terry McLaurin and RB Chris Thompson for flex possibility in deep formats. Who plays quarterback? Well, perhaps Josh Rosen and Dwayne Haskins can both matter in fantasy this week ... this season ... this decade? Who knows? Do not expect a 35-31 game, but these defenses are bad. Points are coming. The other winless teams (Bengals, Jets) both boast running backs that we all roster, plus some receiving options.