Matchups play a huge part in fantasy managers' weekly lineup decisions. When choosing between two (or more) similarly talented players, the decision often boils down to: Which one has the best matchup?
We use that word -- matchups -- a lot. But what, exactly, constitutes a favorable or unfavorable matchup?
This is where the "Matchups Map" comes in. Each week, I'll provide a schedule-independent method to determine strength of positional matchups, using the most recent, relevant data. Check back for updated numbers each week, including matchups highlights at each position -- both favorable and unfavorable -- based upon those statistics. For these purposes, we will use PPR (point per reception) scoring.
The maps include two measures: The first, "Rk," is my personal ranking of how favorable/unfavorable I consider that positional matchup; the second, "Adj. FPA," reflects how far above or below a player's average that defense held opponents at that position. For Week 5, we'll use 2019 data (four weeks are already in the books), but starting in Week 6, we'll use the most recent five weeks.
Finally, a couple of caveats: The "Adj. FPA" statistics in this week's column represent only a four-week, smaller-than-usual sample, so my personal ranking ("Rk") won't fall quite in line as it will in future weeks.
Also, remember that matchups are only one ingredient in my rankings formula. Not every favorable matchup should be exploited; not every unfavorable matchup should be avoided. To get the most complete recipe for whom to start and sit, consult my weekly rankings.
Quarterbacks
Favorable matchup: Kyler Murray, Arizona Cardinals (at Cincinnati Bengals)
The Bengals' defense is off to a mediocre start, having allowed the fifth-most points per game (27.5) and ninth-most total yards per game (386.2), and as you'll see in the running back chart below, they've been the worst schedule-adjusted defense against that position thus far.
Shifting the focus to the quarterbacks, though, this stands out: The 0.63 fantasy points allowed per pass attempt is second most, trailing only the 0.81 surrendered by the Miami Dolphins, thanks in large part to the underwhelming coverage numbers of cornerback Dre Kirkpatrick, safety Jessie Bates III and linebacker Nick Vigil, who have combined to surrender five touchdowns, a 68% completion rate and 9.7 yards per target. Murray shouldn't have much trouble locating his receivers in this game, and he's one of the more volume-oriented picks besides, with his Cardinals having a pass-first offense. The one strike working against him: He'll probably be without Christian Kirk (ankle).
Granted, the Bengals have fared respectably defending the run against fellow mobile quarterbacks Russell Wilson (Week 1) and Josh Allen (Week 3), affording them a combined 54 yards and no scores on 13 rushing attempts, but this matchup is much more about Murray's potential success via the pass anyway.
Unfavorable matchup: Aaron Rodgers, Green Bay Packers (at Dallas Cowboys)
The Cowboys have played remarkably solid defense against the pass through four games, mainly due to the performance of cornerbacks Chidobe Awuzie, Anthony Brown and Byron Jones, who combined have afforded only one touchdown, a 58% completion rate and 7.3 yards per attempt along with one interception. While a good chunk of that can be attributed to a favorable schedule -- they've faced Eli Manning, Case Keenum, Josh Rosen and Teddy Bridgewater, in order -- their statistical dominance of those foes earns them credit for doing so.
Rodgers, meanwhile, hasn't looked quite like Aaron Rodgers thus far, as his passer rating, touchdown rate and average depth of target are down compared to last season. It's not the optimal time for him to draw this matchup, especially not with the news that his No. 1 receiver, Davante Adams, is likely to be sidelined because of a toe injury. Rodgers, simply put, lacks QB1 potential this week.
Running backs
Favorable matchup: Melvin Gordon, Los Angeles Chargers (versus Denver Broncos)
I'll admit upfront, I have the low rank among our analysts for Week 5. I typically take a conservative approach to fresh-off-a-holdout players, especially those who played zero snaps despite suiting up for the previous week's game, and haven't yet received any sort of glowing endorsement from their coach that they'll absorb a full-timer's role in the current week.
Gordon might see only 10-12 carries, and even that's potentially optimistic. His Week 5 statistical floor is probably the lowest of anyone we have ranked among the "start-worthy" tiers. That said, I think my counterparts' Gordon ranking properly acknowledges his Sunday upside (if not undershooting it), because this Broncos matchup is just about as favorable as one could ask -- and it's probably enough so to warrant your start.
The Broncos have exhibited a steep downside against opposing running backs, surrendering Josh Jacobs' only good game out of four so far (24.3 PPR fantasy points in Week 1), and most recently a combined 38.4 points to Leonard Fournette and Ryquell Armstead in Week 4. Injuries to linebackers Bradley Chubb (season-ending torn ACL) and Josey Jewell (hamstring) set back this run defense significantly in Week 4, and the 225 rushing yards it surrendered in the second half of that game alone illustrates this matchup's prospects if Jewell can't suit up.
Unfavorable matchup: Josh Jacobs, Oakland Raiders (versus Chicago Bears)
His performance in Week 5, against a Darius Leonard-less Indianapolis Colts defense, was a real disappointment, totaling 12.8 PPR fantasy points despite 19 total touches. That brings his numbers for the past three weeks to 27.1 PPR fantasy points, 47% of the offensive snaps played, four total targets and an average of 13 rushing attempts per game, and it makes him one of the position's bigger disappointments thus far.
The Bears, meanwhile, haven't yet afforded greater than 54 rushing yards to the five feature backs they've faced -- we'll lump Phillip Lindsay and Royce Freeman into the description due to their committee status and double-digit carries in that game -- and allowed them an average of 40.2 yards with one total rushing score. Bear (pun intended) in mind that two of those opponents were Aaron Jones (Week 1) and Dalvin Cook (Week 4), two of the speediest backs in the game (and surely quicker backs than Jacobs), and most of their 23.9 points against these Bears were the product of that late Cook score as well as Cook's six receptions (albeit for just 13 yards).
Wide receivers
Favorable matchup: Josh Gordon, New England Patriots (at Washington Redskins)
While his 2019 fantasy point total gives the look of a forgettable season, don't overlook Gordon's bump in usage since Antonio Brown's Sept. 20 release, because it's important when pertaining to a matchup like this. During that two-game span, Gordon has played 88% of the Patriots' offensive snaps, run 81 routes and drawn 18 targets -- ranking 26th, tied for fourth and tied for 12th at the position, respectively. Gordon was mainly held quiet last week due to running a good number of his routes going up against Buffalo Bills cornerback Tre'Davious White, one of the best at his craft.
This week, Gordon draws the Redskins' secondary, which has served up the second-most total PPR fantasy points to the position (185.7) and the third-most points per target (2.3). And if you're concerned about a possible Josh Norman matchup, fret not: He has allowed the 10th-worst passer rating (118.3) among the 83 players with at least 120 coverage snaps, and a healthy 18% target rate on his routes to boot.
Unfavorable matchup: Terry McLaurin, Washington Redskins (versus New England Patriots)
Across the field, McLaurin is a "no" for me in all but the deepest of fantasy leagues, and not only because he was held out in Week 4 due to a hamstring injury. Assuming he suits up, he'll be facing a Patriots defense that has allowed a league-low 1.0 PPR fantasy points per target to opposing No. 1 wide receivers, and while some of that has to do with the marshmallow-soft schedule the team has faced, cornerback Stephon Gilmore's play has been excellent and worthy of mention. Gilmore has afforded zero touchdowns, a 57.5 passer rating that ranks 16th-best among the aforementioned 83-player sample and a mere 52% completion rate despite being one of the most heavily targeted defenders out there thus far.
Tight ends
Favorable matchup: Tyler Eifert, Cincinnati Bengals (versus Arizona Cardinals)
The Cardinals have allowed 32.6 more PPR fantasy points to opposing tight ends than has any other team, and their 2.8 points per target average is the most in the league by leaps and bounds. Each of the four lead tight ends to face the Cardinals this season has scored at least 18.7 PPR fantasy points. While the release of D.J. Swearinger, who served up three of the defense's six touchdowns allowed to the position on only eight targets, should help improve the Cardinals' chances moving forward, the remainder of this team's linebacker and cornerback corps hasn't been that much better at containing tight ends to this point.
Eifert is looking healthier right now than he has in awhile, he does catch quarterback Andy Dalton's eye in the red zone, and he does have exactly five targets in three of his four games played thus far. Considering the Bengals should be throwing a lot this week, as they do in most weeks, Eifert is a strong Week 5 streaming selection.
Unfavorable matchup: Delanie Walker, Tennessee Titans (versus Buffalo Bills)
The combination of White, fellow cornerback Levi Wallace and linebacker Matt Milano has been a headache for opposing tight ends through four games, as the Bills' defense collectively hasn't allowed a touchdown to the position and has surrendered just 1.3 PPR fantasy points per target, second-best in the league. The aforementioned Eifert drew only one target on 20 routes against this team in Week 3, and Evan Engram managed only 10.8 points on his eight targets in Week 2.
Walker is coming off one of his most forgettable games in Week 5, playing only 30% of the offensive snaps while drawing two targets, and while the knee injury that cost him some practice time early in the week might've contributed, it's still a disconcerting development with him now facing this matchup.