Matchups play a huge part in fantasy managers' weekly lineup decisions. When choosing between two (or more) similarly talented players, the decision often boils down to: Which one has the best matchup?
We use that word -- matchups -- a lot. But what, exactly, constitutes a favorable or unfavorable matchup?
This is where the "Matchups Map" comes in. Each week, I'll provide a schedule-independent method to determine strength of positional matchups, using the most recent, relevant data. Check back for updated numbers each week, including matchups highlights at each position -- both favorable and unfavorable -- based upon those statistics. For these purposes, we will use PPR (point per reception) scoring.
The maps include two measures: The first, "Rk," is my personal ranking of how favorable/unfavorable I consider that positional matchup; the second, "Adj. FPA," reflects how far above or below a player's average that defense held opponents at that position. For Week 4, we'll use 2019 data (three weeks are already in the books), but starting in Week 6, we'll use the most recent five weeks.
Finally, a couple of caveats: The "Adj. FPA" statistics in this week's column represent only a three-week, smaller-than-usual sample, so my personal ranking ("Rk") won't fall quite in line as it will in future weeks.
Also, remember that matchups are only one ingredient in my rankings formula. Not every favorable matchup should be exploited; not every unfavorable matchup should be avoided. To get the most complete recipe for whom to start and sit, consult my weekly rankings.
Quarterbacks
Favorable matchup: Daniel Jones, New York Giants (versus Washington Redskins)
If you watched Jones' first career NFL start in Week 3, be aware that you watched the second-best fantasy performance by any quarterback in history making his first career start, worth 34.2 points on the strength of his two rushing scores as well as 9.3 yards per attempt passing.
Jones' mobility is an underrated part of his game, but it's his passing promise that's so tantalizing this week. The Redskins' secondary has been a mess thus far, serving up a third-worst 122.2 passer rating through three games, a seemingly strange result for a team that boasts cornerback Josh Norman, until you realize that he has allowed the fifth-worst passer rating (behind a 58% catch rate and three touchdowns allowed) among the 51 defenders with at least 100 coverage snaps.
Jones shouldn't have much trouble locating his receivers this week, and with Saquon Barkley (ankle) sidelined, the Giants will surely funnel their offense through the quarterback. Jones needs be a locked-in QB2 for two-quarterback leagues, and he's a worthwhile matchups play for those with either bye-week issues or a typical starter who faces a poor matchup.
Unfavorable matchup: Carson Wentz, Philadelphia Eagles (at Green Bay Packers)
Speaking of typical starters with poor matchups, Wentz fits the description. Though his fantasy production might not show it, he hasn't been especially sharp through three games, his 61% completion rate ranks just 26th among 35 qualifiers, and his 36% completion and 8% interception rates on vertical passes (those that travel at least 15 yards beyond the line of scrimmage downfield) are worse than his 39% and 6% career rates.
Now Wentz has to tangle with a Packers pass defense that has significantly over-performed expectations, in large part due to the play of safeties Adrian Amos and Darnell Savage and linebackers Preston Smith and Za'Darius Smith.
Granted, the Packers' schedule hasn't been the toughest as far as opposing quarterbacks are concerned -- Mitchell Trubisky, Kirk Cousins and Joe Flacco have been their trio of foes -- but all three delivered ugly fantasy stat lines against this defense. Wentz will probably struggle to deliver QB1 numbers in Week 4.
Running backs
Favorable matchup: Josh Jacobs, Oakland Raiders (at Indianapolis Colts)
His fantasy production has been anything but eye-popping, but the metrics say he has been a far better runner through three weeks than you might think. Jacobs' 2.5 yards after contact per rushing attempt ranks fifth best in the league, his 27% first down/touchdown conversion rate ranks 13th and his 0.28 missed tackles forced per rushing attempt ranks fifth, hinting that greater stat lines are in his future.
The Colts present the kind of matchup for this to happen. While they weren't completely dominated by Derrick Henry or Devonta Freeman in the past two weeks, keep in mind that the Colts held the lead for the vast majority of those two games yet still afforded the eighth-highest yards per carry average (4.9) and sixth-highest yards after contact per carry (2.1).
Colts linebacker Darius Leonard's (concussion) status does have a bearing on this particular matchup, but even if he's able to suit up on Sunday, this is a favorable enough matchup that Jacobs warrants mid-to-high RB2 status.
Unfavorable matchup: Devin Singletary/Frank Gore, Buffalo Bills (versus New England Patriots)
While the schedule has favored the Patriots through three weeks (more so their Weeks 2-3 games against the Miami Dolphins and New York Jets than their season-opening game against the Pittsburgh Steelers), it's still worth pointing out the level of dominance their run defense has enjoyed. The team ranks first in yards per carry allowed (2.3), yards after contact per rush allowed (0.9) and first-down rate allowed (8%), and they held James Conner (Week 1) and Le'Veon Bell (Week 3) beneath 11 PPR fantasy points apiece.
Linebacker Jamie Collins Sr. has been the team's standout thus far, with a league-leading six run stuffs (tied with Luke Kuechly). Singletary missed Week 3 with a hamstring issue, but whether he returns or not, both he and Gore face one of their toughest assignments of the entire season. Singletary might have to do most of his damage in the receiving game, while Gore's 21% stuff rate thus far suggests he'll have a hard time racking up yardage this week.
Wide receivers
Favorable matchup: Terry McLaurin, Washington Redskins (at New York Giants)
It might seem hard to believe that a direct matchup against Giants cornerback Janoris Jenkins could be characterized as favorable, but here we are. On 95 coverage snaps thus far, Jenkins has served up a 68% completion rate (17-of-25), 285 yards and two touchdowns without an interception, with Mike Evans dominating him in Week 3.
McLaurin does move around a fair amount -- he has lined up out of the slot on 17% of his routes run and shifted from left to right a decent share as well -- so he'll also draw a decent number of advantageous matchups against the Giants' other cornerbacks, with their group so far surrendering seven double-digit PPR fantasy point totals to the position through three games. McLaurin's 20% target share gives him excellent odds of a WR2 performance, considering the matchup.
Unfavorable matchup: Chris Godwin, Tampa Bay Buccaneers (at Los Angeles Rams)
Jameis Winston and his receivers will have a rough go of it in Week 4, considering how well the Rams' pass defense has performed through three weeks. Godwin's in particular is a matchup of concern. The Rams' 44.6 passer rating allowed to opposing slot receivers ranks second best in the league (Patriots, 42.3), thanks mostly to Nickell Robey-Coleman's play, as the cornerback has allowed a 55% catch rate, no touchdowns and two passes defensed in 82 coverage snaps.
Godwin, who has run 57% of his routes out of the slot, might have a tough time faring better than fellow slot receiver Jarvis Landry, who managed just 9.2 PPR fantasy points in the Browns' Week 3 matchup against these Rams.
Tight ends
Favorable matchup: Will Dissly, Seattle Seahawks (at Arizona Cardinals)
Don't overlook his production in a limited sample to begin his NFL career, as through seven games since his fourth-round selection in the 2018 NFL draft, Dissly has averaged 11.1 PPR fantasy points, seventh best among tight ends during that time span. While his 25% rate of being targeted per route run -- that's eighth-highest among players with at least 20 targets -- is sure to regress in time, this isn't the week to expect it to happen.
The opposing Cardinals have allowed a 25-PPR-point fantasy tight end in each of their three games to date: T.J. Hockenson (25.1 in Week 1), Mark Andrews (25.2 in Week 2) and Greg Olsen (25.5 in Week 3). Strong safety D.J. Swearinger's play has been largely behind it, perhaps forcing the team to shift free safety Budda Baker to compensate, but for now, Dissly should be able to capitalize enough to be a worthwhile pickup and start. Incidentally, Dissly remains available in 48% of ESPN leagues.
Unfavorable matchup: Jason Witten, Dallas Cowboys (at New Orleans Saints)
His play since his return to the NFL has been encouraging enough that he's worth a look when the matchup calls, but this definitely isn't one of those times. While Dissly did manage 18.2 PPR fantasy points against the Saints in Week 3, this defense has been otherwise excellent at containing opposing tight ends, thanks to solid efforts by cornerbacks Eli Apple and Marshon Lattimore, safety Vonn Bell and linebacker Demario Davis, who have rotated the chores thus far.
Witten's five red zone targets do signal an opportunity to find the end zone in Week 4, but he's otherwise a poor choice for volume against this defense.