Three games, three blowouts. Oh, there has also been plenty of off-field drama surrounding the New England Patriots lately, but where it counts -- in the standings -- the defending Super Bowl champions followed up an impressive opening-week win over the Pittsburgh Steelers by handling business against brutal AFC East foes in the Miami Dolphins and New York Jets. The average score of the three contests has been 35-5, and perhaps it says just as much about their foes -- if not more -- as it does about the Patriots.
The Buffalo Bills, however, appear to be a decent team, though it might not show in their competitive wins over the Jets, New York Giants and, on Sunday, thanks to a late rally and a magnificent drive after blowing a two-touchdown lead, the ordinary Cincinnati Bengals. Time will tell, and that time could be coming in Week 4, when the Bills host the team that has won every AFC East title since the Reagan administration (OK no, but close). The Bills cannot keep up with the Patriots offensively, but fantasy managers should learn quite a bit about both squads.
For example, on the Patriots side, not all is going perfectly. The team had crazy wide receiver depth just a few days ago, but that was before the release of Antonio Brown and Sunday's rib injury to Julian Edelman. Pass-catching running back James White missed Sunday's win -- for a good reason; congrats on the baby! -- but Sony Michel, for the second time in three weeks, badly underperformed, his short touchdown run notwithstanding. Tom Brady still clearly has game, but this will be the first strong defense he has to face, one that has held him sans a touchdown pass in two of the past three meetings.
Michel was a featured option on my preseason "Do Not Draft" list for two reasons (and this is hardly a victory lap; it's September). The first was that he missed time this summer after a knee scope, and durability has been a question in the past. Michel's chosen path to rushing yards is often to attempt to run over bigger defenders, not to avoid contact, and that tends to result in injury. Few refer to Michel as elusive. But what is elusive: receiving targets. Through 16 career games, Michel boasts 12 targets and seven receptions. That might be one game for Christian McCaffrey. Since most of us play in PPR formats, being deficient for the "R" part of the format is a big problem and why White is more valuable.
However, one must wonder what happens to Michel's touches as a traditional runner if he cannot become more consistent at a high level. He rushed 15 times for 14 yards against the Steelers, and nine times for 11 yards -- with a touchdown -- against the beleaguered Jets. In between, Michel did not exactly thrash the Dolphins, though 83 yards on 21 totes is helpful. Still, that was good for less than 4 yards per carry and 12.3 fantasy PPR points; 21 running backs eclipsed that total. White and similarly versatile Rex Burkhead could start seeing more rushing attempts, and third-round Alabama product Damien Harris, active but unused Sunday, could get a chance soon, though he profiles similarly to Michel.
As for the passing game, we await clarity on the Edelman injury, but even if he is able to suit up against the Bills -- and he has played in all 16 games in just two of nine seasons -- Phillip Dorsett, with three touchdowns already, is clearly relevant. Perhaps rookies Jakobi Meyers and/or Gunner Olszewski get a chance at some point. In addition, the Patriots are getting nothing but blocking from their tight ends, but that could change by Week 5, when veteran Benjamin Watson is no longer serving a suspension, and those in deep formats looking for positional depth there should consider acting on Watson this week, before everyone finds out or realizes it.
The Bills are not likely to blow out too many teams, not with a patient offense lacking playmakers, but quarterback Josh Allen gets a good test against the Patriots, and if he passes it -- on a statistical level, of course, regardless of which team wins -- then he will force fantasy managers to pay more attention. Oh, Allen was the most added quarterback in ESPN standard leagues entering Sunday but activated in less than half of leagues, so investors -- and potential ones -- obviously remain cautious, to some degree. Perhaps it changes in Week 4, and maybe Frank Gore, John Brown and Cole Beasley graduate to flex relevance as well.
Here are more fantasy themes to watch in Week 4:
Bye, Felicia
Fantasy managers cannot complain about Jets running back Le'Veon Bell in Week 4 because ... it's his bye week. Gotcha! Yes, those annoying weeks off start in September this season, with the Jets and San Francisco 49ers playing golf, so fantasy managers need to act fast and look ahead to future weeks as well. Bell is getting ample backfield volume, and he will likely remain an RB1 once the team's actual starting quarterback (Sam Darnold) returns, but that is an issue for Week 5. I guess, one could note, that watching Darnold's progress during the bye week is key, and for the 49ers, see if running back Tevin Coleman is healing from an ankle injury, because that would mess up the value for the underrated and productive duo of Raheem Mostert and Matt Breida.
Quite the galling injury
Myriad injury situations require watching this week, but perhaps none more so than Giants running back Saquon Barkley, the first overall pick in most fantasy leagues this season. He hopped around the sideline in a walking boot after suffering the dreaded high ankle sprain, and clarity on the duration of his absence should come on Monday. The Giants host Washington in Week 4 with Wayne Gallman likely to start at running back, and he might be the hottest free-agent addition of the next few days, though I will let others do the adding. Gallman simply hasn't shown much in his brief career, though opportunity is knocking and we can't outright ignore it. I just think readily available part-timers like Mostert (but not in Week 4), Rex Burkhead, Chris Thompson and perhaps even Jamaal Williams offer more scoring potential -- floor and ceiling -- by being in better offenses.
Then again, should the hottest pickup not be future Hall of Famer Daniel Jones? Ah, I jest. Jones heads into the hall in Canton, Ohio, before Thanksgiving after what he achieved Sunday in Tampa Bay. Sure, I guess Jones is worth watching as he faces off against Case Keenum. Not to bury the lead for our Week 4 rankings, but I doubt he lands in a QB1 spot.
From leader to middle of the pack?
Green Bay Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers leads an unbeaten team into battle Thursday night against Carson Wentz and the sputtering Philadelphia Eagles, but only one of those passers has failed to reach as many as 15 fantasy points in any game. Consider just how unlikely this is. Marcus Mariota, perhaps in danger of hitting the bench, has surpassed 15 points in two of his three games. Cincinnati's Andy Dalton has done it all three games, as has Indianapolis Colts starter Jacoby Brissett and Jacksonville Jaguars rookie Gardner Minshew II. Rodgers has yet to reach 240 passing yards in a contest, after doing so 11 times last season, and his lone touchdown against the Denver Broncos Sunday came on the first drive on a free play due to a defensive penalty. The 1-2 Eagles currently generate frighteningly little pass rush, and the secondary is weak, so Rodgers remains a QB1 for Week 4, but if he fails to shine statistically -- how can he not, right? -- it might be time to reconsider.
K.C. masterpiece
Patrick Mahomes has plenty of weapons, thank you very much, but the problem for fantasy managers is hitting on the right ones in the right week. For example, rumors floated Sunday morning that LeSean McCoy would start with Damien Williams inactive, and McCoy scored a pair of touchdowns, but Darrel Williams was a bit more involved. What happens if Damien Williams plays in Detroit in Week 4? Wide receiver Sammy Watkins reached double digits in PPR scoring for the second consecutive week but again scored fewer points than the less popular (for fantasy rosters) Mecole Hardman and Demarcus Robinson. They all await the Tyreek Hill return. Mahomes seems like he can do whatever he wants statistically and seemingly with whomever he desires, and I am starting to think regression for him is not coming.
Cleveland offense not much to "rave" about
Few expected Cleveland quarterback Baker Mayfield, with so many weapons surrounding him, to struggle. So far, he has, falling short of 10 fantasy points in two games, including the Sunday night loss to the Rams. Next comes a tough road tilt in Baltimore against thriving QB Lamar Jackson. It's way too early to panic about Mayfield, Odell Beckham Jr. and this offense, but fantasy managers might want to turn to another QB this week.