Know your matchups, and play your matchups, every week.
We use that word -- "matchups" -- a lot, but its definition can sometimes be unclear. What, exactly, constitutes a favorable or unfavorable matchup?
In Week 1, the answer to this question is the trickiest it'll be all season. Matchups data is extremely sketchy in the opening week, and it's foolish to present "matchups numbers" exclusively based on last season's or the current preseason's statistics. Citing 2018 statistics assumes no change to coaching or defensive personnel, and citing 2019 preseason statistics puts weight on a four-game sample during which first-team defensive players took part in limited snaps.
An additional wrinkle to consider with 2018 statistics: Fantasy point totals for individual skill positions are useful tools, but they need to be considered against strength of schedule.
For example, the Houston Texans, in 2018, afforded the eighth-fewest PPR fantasy points to opposing wide receivers (542.4, or 33.9 per game). However, they also faced only three individual wide receivers who finished among the top 25 at the position in fantasy points -- Odell Beckham Jr. in Week 3, T.Y. Hilton in Weeks 4 and 14, and Jarvis Landry in Week 13 -- and none who finished among the top 10. The Texans ultimately faced the easiest schedule of any NFL team against wide receivers. If we adjust for that schedule -- comparing opponents' seasonal averages to the team's fantasy point total in each game -- the Texans actually finished fourth-worst against wide receivers, making them a much more favorable matchup than you'd think.
This is where the "Matchups Map" comes in. Each week, I'll provide a schedule-independent method to determine strength of positional matchups, using the most recent, relevant data. Check back for updated numbers each week, including matchups highlights at each position -- both favorable and unfavorable -- based on those statistics. For these purposes, we will use PPR (point per reception) scoring.
For Week 1, the maps include two measures: The first, "Rk," is my personal ranking of how favorable/unfavorable I consider that positional matchup. The second, "Adj. FPA," reflects how far above or below a player's average that defense held opponents at that position. For Week 1, 2018 full-season data is used for the latter, so take those with a grain -- or several grains -- of salt.
Finally, a caveat: Remember that matchups are only one ingredient in my rankings formula. Not every favorable matchup should be exploited; not every unfavorable matchup should be avoided. To get the most complete recipe for whom to start and sit, consult my weekly rankings.
Quarterbacks
Favorable matchup: Lamar Jackson, Baltimore Ravens (at Miami Dolphins)
Most everyone on the Ravens' offense stands out in a matchup against the Dolphins, especially quarterbacks and running backs. Jackson, in particular, stands out because of his mobility, coupled with the Dolphins' weaknesses at linebacker and on the defensive perimeter, a problem exacerbated by Kiko Alonso's Labor Day weekend trade to the New Orleans Saints. To illustrate, the Dolphins faced Josh Allen, a mobile, division-rival quarterback, twice last season, and in those games Allen totaled 230 yards and two touchdowns on 18 rushing attempts. Jackson could match or exceed Allen's single-game averages, especially considering he's likely to run the football more than Allen's average of nine attempts, and Jackson could even deliver you some fantasy production via the pass if he can keep the ball away from Dolphins cornerback Xavien Howard, one of the defense's toughest individual matchups.
Unfavorable matchup: Cam Newton, Carolina Panthers (vs. Los Angeles Rams)
Things were looking up for Newton this preseason until the "dress rehearsal" third exhibition game, during which he suffered a mid-foot sprain. While he's not in serious jeopardy of missing Week 1, he might not be as willing to run the way he did in 2018, when he averaged 7.2 rushing attempts per game while totaling the fourth-most fantasy points on rushing plays among quarterbacks (72.8). Compounding things is Newton's sub-optimal matchup against the Rams, a defense that did suffer some key losses on the defensive front -- Ndamukong Suh, in particular -- but still has enough strength in the secondary to cause the veteran passer headaches.
Running backs
Favorable matchup: Phillip Lindsay, Denver Broncos (at Oakland Raiders)
After a preseason during which much was made about the ongoing position battle between Lindsay and Royce Freeman, Lindsay might seem a shaky fantasy play until we gain greater clarity about the rushing split. The preseason returns hinted things should be dangerously close to 50-50, but in Lindsay's defense, a season-opening matchup against the Raiders' defense props him up to near-RB2 potential, even if he's limited to only 12 or so total touches. The Raiders, only a middling-to-below-average defense against the position in 2018, had a considerable amount of turnover on their defensive front during the offseason, including the additions of a pair of linebackers in Vontaze Burfict and Brandon Marshall (eventually cut) who had lackluster 2018 campaigns.
Unfavorable matchup: Derrius Guice, Washington Redskins (at Philadelphia Eagles)
While the Eagles' run defense got beaten up by such stellar names as Saquon Barkley, Ezekiel Elliott, Todd Gurley II, Mark Ingram II and Alvin Kamara during the second half of 2018, Guice isn't quite the caliber -- or at least is nowhere near as proven -- as any of those backs, and this unit enters 2019 in stronger shape. The additions of linebacker Zach Brown and defensive lineman Malik Jackson boosted the Eagles' run defense, and the team's defensive front was already likely to see improvement behind a strong roster on paper led by Fletcher Cox. Guice is coming off a major reconstructive knee surgery that required multiple follow-up procedures, so his role, at least initially this year, is somewhat in question.
Wide receivers
Favorable matchup: Marquise Goodwin, San Francisco 49ers (at Tampa Bay Buccaneers)
The 49ers' receiving pecking order is a bit tough to read right now, what with Dante Pettis, whose role seemed to be called into question on a nearly weekly basis during the preseason, listed atop the position on the team's Week 1 depth chart. Goodwin was the 49ers receiver who was treated like a true No. 1, making only a limited appearance in the dress rehearsal game and playing every snap of the Weeks 2 and 3 games with the first team. He's also the one most likely to draw a direct matchup with Buccaneers cornerback Vernon Hargreaves III, who was one of the lower-rated defenders at his position in 2018. The 49ers also like to move Goodwin into the slot on occasion, which would align him with an even more favorable matchup against M.J. Stewart. In daily contests, Goodwin has a lot of value for the price.
Unfavorable matchup: T.Y. Hilton, Indianapolis Colts (at Los Angeles Chargers)
The retirement of quarterback Andrew Luck was enough of a hit to Hilton's value, but his Week 1 matchup makes him an even less appealing fantasy play. Chargers cornerbacks Casey Hayward and Desmond King represent among the toughest individual matchups at the position, contributing to the team's allowing the fourth-fewest targets (284) and ninth-lowest completion rate (59.9 percent) to the position in 2018. And consider this: When Luck was under center for the Colts the past three seasons, Hilton was targeted on 25% of his routes and averaged 1.87 PPR fantasy points per target. When Jacoby Brissett was under center, Hilton was targeted on 18% of his routes and averaged 1.74 points per target.
Tight ends
Favorable matchup: Darren Waller, Oakland Raiders (vs. Denver Broncos)
Coach Jon Gruden said all offseason that Waller would receive an expanded opportunity, specifically the chance to fill the departed-via-free-agency Jared Cook's shoes, even calling it the "chance of a lifetime." Waller's "big chance" begins with an extremely fantasy-friendly matchup against a Broncos defense that while strong in the secondary, isn't quite so much against opposing tight ends. Cook might not have lit up this defense in their two meetings last season -- he totaled 12.9 PPR fantasy points but was also targeted only seven times -- but this is also a much different passing game, with a greater ability to stretch the field with Antonio Brown on the roster.
Unfavorable matchup: Austin Hooper, Atlanta Falcons (at Minnesota Vikings)
The Vikings' secondary remains quite good, but in addition to being a headache for opposing wide receivers, it's also tough on the tight end position, having posted the 10th-best adjusted fantasy points allowed last season. Only five times in 2018 did a tight end manage a double-digit PPR fantasy point total against the Vikings, and the ones who did so averaged 8.2 targets, which is an amount Hooper isn't all that likely to see. Here's another thing to think about: During the second half of 2018, only the Buffalo Bills (5.1) allowed fewer PPR fantasy points per game to opposing tight ends than did the Vikings (5.7).