Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes comes off a magnificent MVP season in which he threw 50 touchdown passes and surpassed 5,000 passing yards and still -- yes, still -- I will not be selecting him in 2019 fantasy drafts, unless he slips several rounds, which he most certainly will not. I bet he ends up in the first round of myriad drafts by the time September hits and as usual, I will smile.
Call me stubborn or considerably meaner words, but it does not matter: Quarterback is always a deep position, so investing early in a draft is not really a bad strategy because of the quarterback, but because of the missed opportunity. Sure, perhaps one cannot technically do better in an overall scoring sense in the first few rounds, because QBs score so many points, but it is so much smarter to invest early in flex-eligible players, such as running backs and wide receivers, for there is little value -- or guarantees -- later on.
For example, Green Bay Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers is great, right? We all love him, all wish we could throw like him and have as much fun as he appears to have in commercials. It is a given. Well, Rodgers, awesome as he clearly is, has finished as fantasy's No. 1 quarterback four times in 11 seasons, but never consecutively. In fact, the last quarterback to finish as the top fantasy scorer in consecutive seasons was ... drumroll, please ... Daunte Culpepper back in his Minnesota Vikings days 15 years ago. It has been a while. That does not mean Mahomes is incapable of the achievement, but it is tough to do and few think about this in August, then they whine about it in October.
Perhaps Mahomes goes nuts again and breaks more records, but only six passers have ever thrown for as many as 42 touchdowns in a season, with Peyton Manning, Drew Brees and Dan Marino getting there twice. Perhaps Mahomes really is this great, but more often than not -- a lot more often -- a monster statistical season gets followed by merely great numbers, because defenses adjust and luck alters. ESPN Fantasy projects Mahomes to throw for 4,716 yards and 34 touchdowns and still end up as the No. 1 option. I buy that! Several ESPN Fantasy analysts project another QB to top the list come January, like Deshaun Watson, Matt Ryan or even Rodgers. I buy that, too!
I think Mahomes is great and would love to draft him, but not at the expense of Antonio Brown, Joe Mixon or many others being chosen after him. How can you pass up a top-10 running back for a quarterback? That opportunity cost of players one does not draft is not even close to worth it. Quality fantasy quarterbacks are available 10 rounds after Mahomes, using ESPN Fantasy average draft position (Ben Roethlisberger and Dak Prescott, to name just two), but good luck finding a running back or wide receiver to rely on that late. Value-based drafting is a big deal, and Mahomes -- a borderline top-10 quarterback on draft day last season -- was the top QB, but he is only worth such an early pick if he scores a zillion points again. He likely will not.
I write this blog entry every season and it is nice to say that Aaron Rodgers is not the token quarterback leading the Do Not Draft list. I will not draft him or someone else at that position in the first five or so rounds, either, but please realize the reason. I am waiting a long time for my quarterback(s), but that seems best explained in another blog entry!
Without further ado, here is my latest Do Not Draft list, and remember, it is all about value, so we do not hate the players -- love/hate is for, um, someone else's work -- but rather the cost to invest in a PPR draft versus how else to invest.
Players to avoid at their current ADP
Todd Gurley II, RB, Los Angeles Rams: I delved deeper into this in a recent blog entry, so why waste more time and space when we could rip on so many others? Suffice to say, the risk is not even close to the first-round reward. Even the Rams would not draft him in Round 1 anymore. Somewhere in Round 3, sure, I would start to consider it, but I am glad I will not get that chance to think much about it.
Zach Ertz, TE, Philadelphia Eagles: Retired New England Patriots tight end Rob Gronkowski deserves mention in this blog entry, because he was the first fellow I thought about "not drafting" every season. Well, that is, after the top quarterback. Gronk had injury issues the past several years and, from a value perspective, had not been worth a top-20 overall pick in several seasons. Tight ends rarely are, though I do think Chiefs star Travis Kelce is worth his second-round slot and the 49ers' George Kittle in Round 3 makes some sense, I suppose, though it remains a bit early for me.
Ertz is healthy and productive but here is a reminder: You are not drafting last season's numbers. Ertz averaged 75 catches for 831 yards and 4.7 touchdowns the prior three seasons. He was terrific, and a borderline top-five tight end, and fun to invest in, but not a third-round pick. He is currently going 25th overall. Nope. The Eagles have myriad weapons, more than last season. DeSean Jackson is back to stretch the field. A hotshot rookie running back arrived and he will catch passes. Tight end Dallas Goedert is back for Year 2 with a similar skill set to Ertz's, but more blocking ability. More than 100 catches for Ertz is simply not happening again.
Derrick Henry, RB, Tennessee Titans: C'mon, most of you hated this fellow -- figuratively, we presume -- for three months and then he turns it on in December and you make him a fourth-round selection? I admit Henry should be great and can be, assuming he finds consistency beyond a month when his future became in doubt, but I see a major issue to him returning top-15 running back value: He does not catch enough passes, and thus he becomes too touchdown-dependent in our world. This is PPR, and Henry would have to, I believe, surpass our current and aggressive projections (1,400 total yards, 13 touchdowns) to earn the No. 33 overall slot. Yes, you see how weak running back is later on, but do not reach on unreliable players early because of it.
A.J. Green, WR, Cincinnati Bengals: Two of the past three Green seasons have been curtailed early because of injuries and guess what, he is hurt again! Green, 31, has had a great run for the Bengals and fantasy managers despite his quarterback's average play, but players do not get healthier at this age. Green hurt his ankle in July and the team confidently, but foolishly, announced he would miss Week 1. Seems way too precise, no? And wrong, it turned out. The story has changed. Watch Green miss September, if not more games, and he is far from guaranteed for December, too. Again, this is nothing personal and if Green slips to Round 8 or so, once I have a reasonable set of starting runners and receivers and flex choices, that is different, but he is going early in Round 5. No way.
Sony Michel, RB, New England Patriots: Much like Gurley, we know Michel has knee problems and nobody -- repeat, nobody -- expects them to go away. The Patriots drafted Michel's potential replacement in Damien Harris and, you might have heard, they have a tendency for switching up their running back touches from week to week, sans warning. In addition, Michel caught seven passes last season. Seven. This is PPR. James White, who ended up a top-10 PPR running back last season, is a considerably better pick, but foolishly going later in drafts. Know your rules!
Chicago Bears D/ST: No need to delve deep into this, but choosing any defense -- any defense -- in the first 10 rounds is unwise. I like the Bears, Rams and a few other defenses enough to choose them in Round 12 or so, which is a change from me waiting until the penultimate round, but the Bears' unit is currently a sixth-round selection, ahead of legit starters at running back and receiver. You should know better!
Sammy Watkins, WR, Kansas City Chiefs: As you might have guessed, I am not too keen on investing in brittle players, and Watkins, with three teams the past three seasons, missed an average of five games a year in that span. He also was not exactly Jerry Rice when he did play. Watkins is talented and his QB -- despite how some will misinterpret the lead of this entry -- is awesome, but people have to stop waiting for a monster statistical season. The fact that teammate Tyreek Hill avoided suspension really reduced the Watkins ADP, but not enough. I will take rookie Mecole Hardman five rounds after Watkins and enjoy it.
Greg Zuerlein, K, Los Angeles Rams: I choose my kicker in the final round, and only because most league rules mandate I draft a kicker. For Zuerlein and Baltimore's Justin Tucker to be top-100 ADP picks is simply ridiculous, to be kind.
Players to avoid, even in the latter rounds
Tom Brady, QB, New England Patriots: In real life, there is little doubt. This fellow wins championships and earns all the respect. In fantasy, however, he no longer does this. Brady's 2018 statistical regular season was similar to his 2017 campaign, but it was not close to being top 10 at the position. Things seem unlikely to improve at his age and with the current weaponry at his disposal.
LeSean McCoy, RB, Buffalo Bills: A starting running back, yay! Well, in theory, this could be the case, but it seems unlikely McCoy, on the other side of 30, will see major touches unless he rocks in September, and who expects this? He averaged 3.2 yards per rush last season. Stay away from Washington's Adrian Peterson too. You do not get extra points for career achievements or future Hall of Fame nods.
Golden Tate, WR, New York Giants: No, I do not think he is done as a reasonable PPR provider, but he is suspended for the first four games and I doubt more than half of those drafting Tate will be patient enough to wait for him. Plus, look at the team he is on and the fact the running back catches so many passes. Eh, make it easier on yourself and avoid Tate unless he is your sixth wide receiver.
Kareem Hunt, RB, Cleveland Browns: He is not eligible to play until Week 10 and even then I have doubts he will be blessed with any initial timeshare because Nick Chubb is great. My colleague, Tristan H. Cockcroft, detailed the things you'll need to consider if you decide to take the plunge on Hunt. Are you really willing to use a bench spot on an inactive player for more than two months? You know you are not that patient!
Jordan Reed, TE, Washington Redskins: Not to be mean, but I think I am avoiding everyone from this team this season. Think about it. Derrius Guice could be great after missing his rookie season, but Peterson is still here, as is pass-catcher Chris Thompson. No wide receivers look like reliable assets, even if there was a quarterback to trust. Then there is Reed, who once was great, but struggles to stay healthy -- to be kind -- and always seems to be questionable each Sunday. I do not waste bench space on a second tight end. It is not as if Reed is producing the numbers commensurate with his attention. While I am it, avoid Greg Olsen, Jason Witten, Tyler Eifert and Tony Gonzalez, too. What is this fascination with old tight ends?