Forget all the overused clichés about winning or losing a fantasy football draft in the first round. Nobody really knows for sure on draft day what the final statistics will look like months later. However, when we do have advance knowledge that a top player -- a perceived top player, perhaps -- is not near 100 percent health and his role is likely changing, well, how can we ignore this? Some want to, anyway, but that seems like a bad idea.
Gurley starred at Georgia, but even then the condition of his left knee was more than a mild concern, as he tore the ACL in November of his final college season and dealt with other lower-body injuries. A physical, prototype NFL running back with power and speed, the skills are obvious, and for this era, players of this ilk find it tough to remain healthy for long. Gurley has scored 40 touchdowns and piled on the yards from scrimmage the past two seasons, and when one talks about running back consistency and volume, Gurley has been about as awesome as there is.
The problem is this figures to change this fall, or there is more risk of it changing, so investing an early pick on Gurley -- particularly in Round 1 -- is far too dangerous for my liking. Yes, I might be more risk-averse than most, but again, this seems obvious to me. Rams personnel claim Gurley remains the Rams' top running back, as they should. It is true. Coach Sean McVay will spin things however he likes to keep opposing defenses guessing, but we saw in January and in the Super Bowl what happened. C.J. Anderson went from unemployed to handling more volume than Gurley, and quickly, and in the most important games of the season. Why did this happen? Gurley's left knee is arthritic and he was unable to run effectively.
Turn the page to this summer and Gurley is not participating in the team's drills at organized team activities, as he has his own workout plan. Hey, whatever works, right? Special players do deserve special treatment. However, no more clarity is likely to come this summer. The Rams certainly will not risk Gurley in a preseason game. NFL Nation reporter Lindsey Thiry keeps seeking answers at Rams camp and none is forthcoming. Gurley is "taking it day by day," and reports of a degenerative condition in the left knee remain unconfirmed by team personnel, as one would expect. There is no upside to the team divulging anything.
Words are not entirely necessary in this situation, however. One could view the addition of Memphis star Darrell Henderson with a third-round draft selection as mere insurance, I suppose, but it was the third round. Henderson averaged 8.9 yards per carry in his final two seasons, while providing pass-catching utility and, to be clear, he looked the part of future star and was in demand. Playing time is rarely a sure thing for rookies, and if it appeared that Henderson was a sure thing, I would rank him as such. But I have to assume some touches -- with upside for many -- are coming his direction.
I think we have to see a looming timeshare pending, featuring Gurley, Henderson and incumbent backup Malcolm Brown, who could have been a key cog in the backfield of the Detroit Lions after signing an offer sheet this offseason, but, in a curious move, the Rams matched it. This is why! The Rams do not know what is going to happen and, like a smart franchise, they are planning for any possibility. With a terrific offensive line that made Anderson look the part of a star and rejuvenated his career, they can afford to be patient with their star. Fantasy managers abhor situations lacking clarity, but this one has it.
Knowing all this -- and I do think much of this is based on facts more than opinions -- it sure seems risky to invest in Gurley as a fantasy team's top running back. Volume figures to drop to some unknown degree, likely in the passing game at the least. I could see Gurley getting double-digit rushing attempts for the games he feels up to it and scoring touchdowns, but when is that going to be? Do you want to risk relying on him the Sunday morning of Week 4 for a late-afternoon tilt when he is merely questionable to suit up? How about in Week 5 with a short week for a Thursday road game in Seattle? The Rams seem smart enough to handle workload carefully, especially with these options. There is ample risk here, and the situation is not likely to improve. Arthritis worsens with age, and physical contact is not one of the ways to heal it.
Draft approach
Context is always crucial, of course, and there is a point in every draft or auction in which the ridiculous statistical upside of a player, should he remain healthy, overrides the risk and creates a perceived positive value. Unlike looking at a player's statistics, it is mere guesswork. Still, the longer we go without concrete information, the more I would avoid Gurley in Round 2, which is where I currently rank him, though perhaps not for long. I suspect I will end up preferring the likes of Nick Chubb, Dalvin Cook and Devonta Freeman, even though they don't offer guarantees of health and volume, either. Still, they do not cost a top-20 overall pick, yet alone a top-10 selection.
This is how it is going to be for many running-back situations around the league, as more coaches realize a shared approach contributes to better health, and keeps opposing defenses guessing. This is why I want to ensure acquisition of a top running back with volume and few concerns, like Gurley a year ago. They are truly valuable. NFL teams seem resistant to investing big bucks in running backs -- see the Le'Veon Bell situation -- while viewing them as dispensable and with shorter careers before inevitable injuries claim them. It is not a positive direction for the position or for investing statistically, but look around. Time will tell if the successful Rams, with their star running back in peril, truly do change, but we should all be prepared.