Following the NFL draft, ESPN's collection of football analysts, fantasy and otherwise, gather in Bristol, Connecticut, for our fantasy football summit. Each year, we have detailed conversations about players, how we expect things to play out for them during the season to come and beyond and we emerge with a set of rankings. Before I touch upon the highlights of these discussions, there was one storyline in particular that was top of mind for nearly everyone in the room.
The ongoing situation with dynamic but controversial Kansas City Chiefs wide receiver Tyreek Hill and his uncertain NFL future was the big story of the summit. Hill led his position in PPR fantasy points for the 2018 season, eighth overall, and he certainly aided in the success of record-breaking quarterback Patrick Mahomes. However, because of serious off-field issues involving child abuse allegations, nobody knows for sure if Hill will actually be a member of the Chiefs much longer. As of now, NFL investigators haven't even met with Hill, so this could be a long saga that takes months. But how this plays out certainly has an impact in fantasy circles.
For example, if there were no concerns about Hill playing another full season, his name probably would not have been brought up much at all. On the field, his absurd skills define him and his once-excellent fantasy value. Mahomes would be the unquestioned No. 1 quarterback moving forward, coming off a magical 50-touchdown, 5,000-yard campaign, even with expected regression, and there would be little discussion about other Chiefs wide receivers, either a brittle veteran with a history of missed games or a raw rookie who would otherwise be buried on the depth chart. That is just not the case, however. Hill would have received second-round consideration overall. Instead, he received virtually no consideration.
Of course, the actual football season remains months away and individual rankings and those of the staff will surely change in that time as news dictates, but I found it interesting how a player who might not play at all so affected our discussions. Coach Andy Reid boasts a long history of sustained offensive success, if not playoff accomplishment, so we felt pretty good that Mahomes would remain statistically prolific regardless of others around him, though several fantasy analysts opted for Houston Texans quarterback Deshaun Watson atop the position. Don't laugh. No quarterback has followed up a season with close to this many touchdown passes with another one, and few repeat as the top fantasy scorers anyway.
Meanwhile, nobody questioned tight end Travis Kelce as a strong second-round selection, but someone among the wide receivers would surely step up. Well-traveled veteran Sammy Watkins is supremely talented, but health is an important skill, and for him it is certainly a questionable one. Could recently drafted Mecole Hardman pull an Anquan Boldin and rock as a rookie? Then there is running back Damien Williams, a surprise performer and league winner for many after Kareem Hunt succumbed to his own off-field troubles, but now facing a push from others such as Carlos Hyde. So much to discuss.
Anyway, the plight of prolific Chiefs was just part of a three-day event that included a televised mock draft (check out The Fantasy Show series page to see it), so let us move on from the highest-scoring team from the previous season and examine other notes from the summit.
The Kyler Murray debate
Arizona Cardinals rookie Kyler Murray, the top choice in the recent NFL draft, was a popular topic as well, even if fantasy managers are well-conditioned to eschew rookie passers. This one might be special. Perhaps it is so, as Murray, short of stature for the position, possesses an exciting all-around skill set that features his running ability, expertly illustrated on a whiteboard by ESPN's Matt Bowen. Our fantasy crew did not initially rank Murray as someone who should be chosen in a 10- or 12-team draft -- in dynasty leagues he's sure to go early -- but nobody denies he is one to watch. In fact, I took him as my second QB in the 12-team mock draft that we recently completed. Other running quarterbacks who surprised in 2018 such as Baltimore Ravens starter Lamar Jackson and Buffalo Bills starter Josh Allen warranted important inspection for their passing ability, but in the end, if the fantasy numbers are there, it should not matter how they achieve them.
Focus on O-lines
The plight of the Cardinals and other underwhelming offensive lines was a big topic as well, since studies by ESPN's KC Joyner and others show offenses can generate vastly different results when blocking is subpar and less than effective. In fact, the absence of just one member of an offensive line can disrupt rhythm as a differentiator on a specific game day, or for weeks, and influence individual rankings, mainly for running backs. Anyway, whether you think about it or not while systematically reading player news for just your rostered options, be aware that an injured center, guard or tackle plays a key role, too.
The Todd Gurley predicament
Stephania Bell revealed the latest news on the injured folks around the league, which led to occasionally intense deliberation on Carolina Panthers quarterback Cam Newton (shoulder), Los Angeles Rams running back Todd Gurley II (knee), Jacksonville Jaguars running back Leonard Fournette (injuries, apathy) and myriad others. Gurley's predicament was especially explored, for he did score 21 touchdowns in 14 games, though our lasting thoughts are of him forlornly watching teammate C.J. Anderson handle the touches in the Super Bowl and other playoff games. NFL Nation Rams writer Lindsey Thiry interpreted the complete lack of clarity surrounding the star's situation and how we frustratingly might receive no more insight by late August. Several fantasy analysts remained strong believers that talent trumps all, and others removed Gurley from first-round consideration.
Pass-catching RBs are often undervalued
When in doubt in assessing running back viability, a football synonym for "workload" became so popular several observers started counting usage of the word: volume is not only for your iPhones and TVs, you know. DFS analyst Al Zeidenfeld is hardly the lone fan of tracking volume, and he and others noted how it is often quite ambiguous to predict how a coach or offensive system will handle the valuable delineation of handoffs and overall touches. When in doubt, accumulation of volume matters. I directed conversation -- and my picks in the mock draft -- to running backs with reception upside, noting that oft-overlooked New England Patriots running back James White, thanks to his many catches, outscored Arizona's David Johnson and many others at his position -- all but 10 of them, actually -- but will be repeatedly passed by on draft day for those who do not catch the football, like White's exciting teammate Sony Michel, among others.
Excitement about Browns' offense
It is undoubtedly a new era for the Cleveland Browns and their long-suffering fan base, and from a fantasy angle, big things are expected. Perhaps too big? Time and again, the clichés "only one football to go around" and "many mouths to feed" were uttered in describing this new and exciting offense. Odell Beckham Jr. is a star. Former college teammate Jarvis Landry is a star. Quarterback Baker Mayfield sure seems like a star, and by the way, there is a potential top-10 running back needing the many touches to carry out this expectation in Nick Chubb. I recall a dialogue about the quarterbacks capable of matching the statistical wonderment of what Mahomes achieved, and Mayfield's name was surely among the options. At the least, the Browns franchise is certainly relevant in real life and fantasy.
What to expect from backs in new locales
Players moving on to new teams is always a hot topic, as we aim to assess their respective fits surrounded by unfamiliar teammates. New York Jets running back Le'Veon Bell led the way. Bell busted many a fantasy team by warranting a first-round pick and then not suiting up for a game in 2018. Wise fantasy managers forgive and forget quickly, but Bell as a Jet faces new challenges, from the curious coach to offensive mindset. Will the myriad touches Bell was blessed with in Pittsburgh be replicated? Can they possibly be? Several analysts questioned this new relationship, which was also the case with fellow running backs Mark Ingram II of the Ravens and Philadelphia Eagles acquisition Jordan Howard.
There's no one "right" way to approach the draft
Draft philosophy was another popular topic, especially during the mock draft, as some selectors described an early position-need ideology, and others -- hand raised -- outlined the need to go with best available in the signature rounds, wholly ignoring quarterbacks. I was last to choose a quarterback in the mock draft, and ended up with Philadelphia's Carson Wentz (the 12th passer drafted) and Murray, the upside pick. Mahomes, unlikely to repeat his amazing season, was a third-round pick. When enough data is compiled to make ESPN ADP worth studying, Mahomes probably will be a top-10 overall choice, which is a questionable decision for sure, but hey, they are your teams. Six running backs were drafted before the first wide receiver, and there was debate about which wide receiver that should be, too. Ultimately, all debate was good-natured among respected colleagues, as it should be.