During the past three weeks, Tom Brady has completed 67 percent of his passes for 952 yards and six touchdowns. After throwing for 353 yards and three touchdowns versus the Dolphins on Sunday, is Brady back in the mix as one of the top QB plays for the fantasy playoffs?
Let's discuss why Brady has seen a rise in production, plus hit on running back Jeff Wilson Jr.'s volume in San Francisco, Spencer Ware's pass-game numbers, the declining targets for Devin Funchess, Josh Allen's rushing prowess and more.
Here are the Week 14 fantasy takeaways.
Tom Brady is back
Brady is dialed in. And, really, this run started back in Week 12 versus the Jets. Look at the first down play-action, where Brady can be lethal. That showed up again Sunday in Miami on the deep ball to Cordarrelle Patterson. Laser throw to the upfield shoulder. Or go back to the touchdown toss to Julian Edelman. Play-action with the wide receiver on a whip route in the tight red zone. Nasty. Two examples of meshing scheme with the skill set of the quarterback.
Yeah, I've been down on Brady in the ranks. But when you take the film over the past three weeks, including the production from tight end Rob Gronkowski on Sunday (eight receptions, 107 yards, one touchdown), Brady should be ranked as a solid midtier QB1 in Week 15. Even with a matchup against the Steelers' defense this Sunday -- a unit that can pressure the quarterback -- Brady will have opportunities to produce numbers versus the single-high safety coverages.
49ers' Jeff Wilson Jr. should be locked in as an RB2 in Shanahan's system
On Sunday, Wilson saw 23 carries and finished with 91 yards rushing. That gives Wilson 38 carries in his past two games. And while he made just one grab in the Week 14 win over Denver, Wilson caught eight passes for 78 yards in Week 13 versus the Seahawks. He can impact the passing game, too.
Think about this: Going into Week 14, the 49ers led the NFL in "21 personnel" snaps. That's old-school, pro-style sets with two backs in the game, one tight end and two wide receivers. But it also speaks to the 49ers' run-game efficiency under Kyle Shanahan, and the volume it creates for Wilson.
For me, this is a plug-and-play system for any back who brings some juice to the huddle. And the 49ers get that with Wilson. The undrafted rookie can find daylight or cutback lanes on zone runs. Gotta have that to carry the rock in San Francisco. Plus, the speed through the hole jumps a bit with Wilson, as does the ability to finish runs.
With the Seahawks on the schedule again in Week 15, managers should ride with Wilson as a solid RB2. The volume is there, and this 49ers run-game system is one of the best in the NFL.
Spencer Ware's pass-game production solidifies his spot as an RB2
Chiefs backup running back Damien Williams is going to get his touches in the Chiefs' offense, and he did find the end zone twice on Sunday in the Kansas City overtime win over Baltimore. But I want to focus on Ware because the bump in pass-game volume is critical to his value.
After catching just one pass in Week 13, Ware posted five grabs (on five targets) for 54 yards Sunday. Now, add that to the volume/production in the run game, and Ware finished with 125 total yards on 20 touches. Those are legit numbers versus a really salty Ravens defense. That's an old-school unit. Physical.
Looking ahead to Week 15, the Chiefs get the Chargers on a short week. That's a Thursday night kickoff. And I will have Ware ranked in the RB2 tier. Checkdowns from Patrick Mahomes, pressure beaters, screens and swing routes.
Where did Devin Funchess go?
On Sunday, Funchess didn't make a single grab, and he finished with just three targets. The past two weeks? One grab, on six targets. That's it.
Sure, Funchess scored a touchdown on that one catch back in Week 13, but that was his lone scoring reception in his past six games. And I don't see any signs here that the volume is going to increase for the Panthers wide receiver.
With DJ Moore and Curtis Samuel seeing more looks in the passing game, while also giving the Panthers more options from a formation/pre-snap movement perspective, Funchess is limited with his skill set in Norv Turner's offense. Remember, he's a seam/slant guy, a big-bodied target who can matchup on 50-50 throws or work the middle of the field.
Given the dip in volume here, and the offensive structure I'm looking at on the film, I would sit Funchess in Week 15 versus the Saints. You simply can't risk starting a wide receiver in the fantasy playoffs who isn't being used in the game plan.
Kenny Stills is making some noise again in Miami
Stills played like a No. 1 wideout in the win over the Patriots, catching eight of a team-high nine targets for 135 yards and a score. Plus, with Ryan Tannehill back, Stills has seen 15 targets in his past two games. He's going to get the looks from Tannehill to use his vertical speed and route running. Smooth stuff.
With those numbers, Stills should grab some starting spots as a WR3 in PPR and non-PPR lineups in Week 15. But let's remember who's on the schedule here. Yeah, it's Mike Zimmer's defense in Minnesota. That's a really tough draw for Stills in the fantasy playoffs. Front-four pressure, overload blitzes and an aggressive secondary. You have to weigh the risk/reward with Stills in this one.
Jaylen Samuels needs the pass-game volume to stay in the RB2 discussion
With only 28 yards rushing on 11 carries, the ground-game numbers weren't there for Samuels on Sunday in the loss to the Raiders. However, like Spencer Ware in Kansas City, Samuels can give you an immediate uptick in production when he catches the ball out of the backfield.
Samuels finished with seven receptions for 64 yards. And it's that type of production as a receiver that gives him RB2 value heading into Week 15 versus the Patriots. Yes, we need to monitor the injury report on James Conner this week. But if the Steelers' No. 1 running back is down again, Samuels has the versatility to grab a spot on the RB2 line again.
Kenneth Dixon's emergence could spell trouble for Gus Edwards
The injury to quarterback Lamar Jackson has to be discussed here because the Ravens would leave that run-heavy approach if Joe Flacco is back under center for Baltimore in Week 15. However, if Jackson is ready to roll, then we have to talk about Edwards' sliding value with Dixon starting to share backfield touches.
In the Week 14 loss to the Chiefs, Edwards logged 16 carries for 67 yards. And as I have written before, there isn't much window dressing to his game. He's a downhill power back, with the size to run inside the tackles. And the Ravens need that in this offensive structure. But with almost no impact as a receiver (just one catch on the season), Edwards must produce touchdowns to boost his stock in the lineup.
That one Ravens rushing touchdown in Kansas City on Sunday? It went to Dixon, who also posted 80 total yards on nine touches. That gives Dixon 18 touches over the past two weeks, and I expect the same backfield rotation to continue this week versus the Bucs. As a result, look for Edwards to hang around that lower-tier RB2 range line, with the understanding that he needs the rock in scoring position.
Josh Allen's rushing numbers make him a strong play in two-QB leagues
In his past two games, Allen has rushed for 236 yards and a score -- on just 18 carries. Yeah, he's pulling the ball down (sometimes a little too early in the route progression) and ripping off chunk plays as a runner. Think about that for a minute. This cat is 6-foot-5, 237 pounds, and he can move.
Maybe we will see defenses go to more zone looks against Allen to get eyes on the quarterback. Or they could use a "spy" technique. But as I always say with a "spy," you have to match the athleticism, speed and size of Allen to make that idea work. Remember, the game isn't played on a chalkboard.
With enough production here in the passing game -- 437 yards in the past two weeks -- Allen has the makeup of a solid No. 2 QB in the lineup when you toss those rushing numbers into the discussion. And while I fully expect Detroit head coach Matt Patricia to throw some creative coverage looks at Allen in Week 15, there will still be opportunities for the rookie to break contain and make plays with his legs.
Where do we rank Derrick Henry after his monster game on TNF?
It started with the 99-yard touchdown run versus the Jags' defense. That's a 6-3, 247-pound running back out there throwing stiff arms. Better watch out there. And it continued with Henry racking up a franchise-record 238 rushing yards to go along four touchdowns.
He jumped all over a Jacksonville defense that looked like a shell of what I saw in the shutout win over the Colts in Week 13. Poor tackling, edge contain, etc. Bad football there.
But does one game, on a short week, change the narrative for Henry? Coming into Week 14, Henry totaled just 475 yards rushing with five touchdowns on the season. His previous season high in rushing was 58 yards. In fact, before he tore up the Jags on Thursday night, Henry had topped the 50-yard rushing mark just four times this season.
Now, if you started Henry this week, you are moving on in the playoffs. But in a backfield where Dion Lewis is also going to see touches, Henry isn't going to fly up the board in my rankings. He'll be in that RB2/flex range going into the Week 15 matchup with the Giants.