The fantasy blocking breakdown series reviews the impact that run and pass blocking have on fantasy football performance, using methodologies detailed here.
This week's blocking breakdown looks back at what we've learned from the first week of the fantasy playoffs and helps managers inform their decisions for the pivotal matchups to come.
Which Drew Brees is the real Drew Brees?
Brees was very hit-or-miss in fantasy production through Week 8, but he found consistency in Weeks 9-12, when he posted four consecutive games with 20-plus points. That trend collapsed during the past two weeks, in which Brees tallied a total of 21.2 points. That places 26th among quarterbacks and is actually a lower point total than Jeff Driskel (21.7), Cody Kessler (22.1) or Josh Johnson (24.3 points in only one game) racked up in that span.
So what has caused the drop-off? And can fantasy managers expect Brees to return to the 20-plus point level?
Let's start by noting that pass blocking certainly isn't the culprit for his decline. The Saints have allowed a pass pressure rate (PPR) mark of 12.9 percent during the past two weeks, lowest in the league. The blocking has been strong on short passes (aerials thrown 10 or fewer yards downfield), with an 11.4 percent PPR that ranks second, and has been even better on vertical passes (attempts thrown 11 or more yards downfield), as New Orleans has given up pass rush pressure on zero percent of throws at that level.
The Saints' run blocking has been equally strong during the past two weeks, as they have posted a 53.1 percent mark in my good blocking rate (GBR) metric that measures how often an offense gives its ball carriers quality run blocking. That is over 8 percentage points higher than the 45 percent league average in GBR this season.
With pass and run blocking this strong, it would seem that New Orleans would want to use play-action and throw the ball deep quite often, but the Saints have thrown only six vertical passes using play-action fakes during the past two games, a total that ranks tied for 13th. That is a major factor in New Orleans throwing only 15 total vertical passes during the past two weeks, a pace that ranks 27th.
This lack of downfield passing aggressiveness is why Brees ranks 17th in vertical pass fantasy points the past two weeks (9.9). It has also led to a decline in vertical production by Michael Thomas, as his 12.0 vertical fantasy points since Week 13 ranks 30th among wide receivers.
The reality is that New Orleans came into this campaign wanting to mimic last season by leaning on its ground game as much as possible. The early season suspension of Mark Ingram II and some coverage gaffes by the secondary combined to put those plans on the back burner, but the Saints are now back to where they can be the run-heavy team they want to be.
Brees is still capable of posting 20-plus points in any contest, so fantasy managers shouldn't go benching him for Driskel, Kessler or any other low-second-tier quarterback. However, if there is an option between Brees and other QB1 or upper-tier QB2 candidates, many fantasy managers would do well to bench Brees and go with someone whose offense will make the passing game more central to their efforts.
Is Derrick Henry for real?
Henry was a popular preseason sleeper pick, but when he started the season with six straight games of fewer than six fantasy points, most fantasy managers threw in the towel and either benched or dropped him.
He started turning things around with four double-digit-point games from Weeks 7 to 13, but he also had two games with fewer than five fantasy points in that time frame and thus was still someone most fantasy managers felt comfortable keeping out of the lineup.
That all changed with Henry's incredible 47.8-point showing against Jacksonville that included an all-time-classic 99-yard touchdown run where he embarrassed three Jaguars defenders with a Heisman Trophy-caliber stiff-arm.
Now fantasy managers want to know if they should risk putting Henry into the lineup, or if he is going to mimic Isaiah Crowell, who followed up his 30.1-point game against Denver in Week 5 with four straight weeks of fewer than eight fantasy points.
There is no foolproof answer, but it is worth noting that the Titans have posted a 50 percent or higher GBR in three of their past five games. That is a huge improvement over their early season performance, as their 40.0 percent GBR in Weeks 1-6 ranked 25th in the league and was a significant factor in Henry's early season struggles.
The upcoming defensive matchups against the Giants and Redskins are also favorable, as those clubs ranked 15th and 29th in my most recent run defense grades.
Add all of that to Henry having scored at least one touchdown in five of his past seven games and the percentages say fantasy managers would do well to get him in the lineup during the next two weeks.
Don't give up on Tevin Coleman
Coleman has posted only 7.2 fantasy points during the past two weeks, a pace that ranks 66th among running backs in that time frame.
That would make it seem like a no-brainer decision to bench him for next week's playoff matchup, but Atlanta's run blocking actually says that is not a good idea. The Falcons came into the Week 14 matchup against Green Bay ranked ninth in my most recent run blocking grades. They will likely retain a ranking at or near that level this week, as they tallied an impressive 56.5 percent GBR against the Packers. The main reason that didn't translate to more fantasy points for Coleman is that Atlanta fell behind 34-7 at one point and wasn't in a position to continue leaning on the ground game.
That should change in next week's matchup against a Cardinals rush defense that came into Week 14 ranked 25th in my rush defense grades. They will likely rank at that level or lower this week, as Arizona allowed 115 rushing yards to Detroit's running backs, making that the ninth time in 13 games that the Cardinals have allowed opposing running backs to post 100 or more rushing yards.
This should return Coleman to the starter tier and could even vault Ito Smith into legitimate flex candidacy given his occasional penchant for posting double-digit carry volumes.
Bonus note
Pittsburgh tallied a 16.7 percent GBR against Oakland, which is the lowest GBR the Steelers have posted during the past two seasons. Subpar run blocking has been a pattern for most of this season, and it is why Pittsburgh has become such a pass-happy team. That is worth keeping in mind when deciding whether to start Ben Roethlisberger over the next couple of weeks in what look to be tough matchups against the Patriots and Saints.