Success in daily fantasy comes down to your ability to find value, identify players in great matchups and maximize the relationships between the players in your roster (otherwise known as correlation).
Each week, I'll go through each position and give you a few players I'm considering for my head-to-head lineups -- usually players who are getting as much volume as possible while also coming in at value prices. I'll also include some players I'm considering for my tournament pool in the write-up section or in the "also considering" section for each position, and while things may change from the time I write this until kickoff on Sunday, I do what I can to keep people updated on my various social media channels all the way up until game time.
With that in mind, here are my favorite plays for Week 11:
Quarterbacks
Cam Newton ($6,200 DraftKings, $8,600 FanDuel), Carolina Panthers at Detroit Lions: Newton has been extremely steady this year with eight-straight games of multiple passing touchdowns and no game this year with less than 15.72 DraftKings points. The Lions had started the season well in DvP against opposing quarterbacks but, over the past four weeks, have seen those efforts climb by about 10 percent per game to 21-plus QB points allowed. The Lions also have allowed the second-most deep yards per game this season. Newton, as always, comes with the rushing touchdown upside, if and when the Panthers get inside the five.
Deshaun Watson ($5,700 DraftKings, $7,800 FanDuel), Houston Texans at Washington Redskins: Watson has been ridiculously efficient over the past two games with a 75 percent completion rate and seven touchdowns (no interceptions) in that time. Washington's defense has been tough this season, but is mostly stacked to stop opposition running games. With ample weapons on the outside adding to his running ability, Watson provides both the upside and a very real floor for what seems like a far too cheap price tag on DraftKings.
Ryan Fitzpatrick ($5,600 DraftKings, $7,600 FanDuel), Tampa Bay Buccaneers at New York Giants: All the energy spent this summer trying to figure out which one of the Tampa Bay running backs would get the lion's share of the work is looking pretty irrelevant in retrospect. The Buccaneers are passing the ball more than any other team in the league (71.5 percent of the time) and 80 percent of their total yardage has come through the air. Fitzpatrick's propensity for attacking with deep throws (9.77 YPA this season, leading the league) has also given him a tremendous ability to exceed his salary expectation in all but one of his starts. The price is extremely affordable for a player who will throw it a ton, has great weapons to pass to, and can also contribute with his legs when the need arises (35 yards on the ground last week).
Also considering:
Drew Brees ($6,500 DraftKings, $8,500 FanDuel), New Orleans Saints vs. Philadelphia Eagles: Brees and his home/road splits are still in play in 2018. He has posted 29.3 DraftKings points at home, compared to only 21.1 on the road.
Lamar Jackson ($4,700 DraftKings, $7,000 FanDuel), Baltimore Ravens vs. Cincinnati Bengals: If Flacco can't go with his hip injury and Jackson starts, this price is way too cheap -- especially considering the floor that his rushing ability brings and the combined ceiling possibilities against a Bengals defense that, of late, can't stop anything.
Running backs
Saquon Barkley ($8,700 DraftKings, $8,800 FanDuel), New York Giants vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Barkley has seen an absurd 37 targets in the Giants' last four games and converted them into 31 catches. The Buccaneers are allowing the eighth-most RB DraftKings points on the season and the fifth-most yards per completion to them as well. Considering that Barkley has a 20-plus yard catch in four of his past five games, this could be a major problem for the Tampa Bay defense. His volume, especially in the passing game, gives him a tremendous floor. However, his big-play ability (four touches that have gains of 50-plus yards) combined with the matchup make this a slam dunk.
Ezekiel Elliott ($8,500 DraftKings, $8,400 FanDuel), Dallas Cowboys at Atlanta Falcons: The past few seasons, we have had teams that have been a flow-chart type situation at tight end: Is team A playing? If yes, play the TE on the team they're playing against and profit! This year, the flow-chart team against opposing running backs is the Falcons. For the fourth straight year, the Falcons should lead the league in RB receptions allowed, as they are currently ceding an absurd 8.44 RB catches per game. The Cowboys have done a great job getting Elliott more involved in the passing game this year and he's already set career highs in both catches and receptions. Volume and passing-game usage give him a great floor, but Elliott's red zone usage is where the upside comes from here. Atlanta helps that as well, as they rank third-highest in the league for red zone drives that result in a touchdown at 75 percent. If you're going to start "Team Jam 'Em In" with both Barkley and Elliott in Week 11, I certainly won't try to talk you out of it.
Dion Lewis ($4,800 DraftKings, $5,900 FanDuel), Tennessee Titans at Indianapolis Colts: The Colts are another team moving in the wrong direction in terms of DvP. On the season, they've been respectable against opposing running backs -- allowing 28 points per game. Over the past four weeks, though, that number has ballooned to 33.13 DraftKings points per game. If you break down their season in terms of YPC allowed, you'll find that number at 3.76 in Weeks 1-6, but a 15-percent jump to 4.34 in Week 7-10. Lewis may have disappointed last week with his output, but the volume was most certainly there. He saw 22 touches, as well as being in on 49 of the 65 Titans' plays. As far as value backs go, Lewis stands out once again in Week 11 -- provided you're brave enough to go back to the well for a second-straight week.
Also considering:
David Johnson ($7,500 DraftKings, $7,900 FanDuel), Arizona Cardinals vs. Oakland Raiders: He has seen the fourth-most touches per game since Week 4 at 21.7. That's ahead of Barkley, Melvin Gordon and Kareem Hunt. The Raiders are the worst team in the NFL in terms of limiting runners in YPC before first contact (3.23).
James Conner ($7,200 DraftKings, $8,200 FanDuel), Pittsburgh Steelers at Jacksonville Jaguars: Opposing running backs have rushed for 100-plus yards and a score versus Jacksonville four times so far this season. My concern here isn't as much the Jaguars defense, but their pace of play. They are the fastest team in the league in seconds-per-play when Leonard Fournette is out, but drop to 22nd in the league in that category when he plays.
Wide receivers
Michael Thomas ($8,800 DraftKings, $8,800 FanDuel), New Orleans Saints vs. Philadelphia Eagles: Teams aren't shy about finding a matchup and going after it versus the Eagles. Nine different receivers have seen 10-plus targets against the Eagles this season. Six of those players surpassed 18 fantasy points, with three of them going for 24.6-plus points. Thomas leads the Saints in both targets (84) and target percentage (29.17) and boasts an absurd 85.7 percent completion rate that remains steady in the red zone. With Philly being susceptible to outside receivers, this looks like another week where Thomas could post a big number.
Keenan Allen ($6,700 DraftKings, $7,600 FanDuel), Los Angeles Chargers vs. Denver Broncos: While Allen hasn't been having as big a season as he did last year, he still sits with a 31.34 target percentage, leading the Chargers by 10 percent over the second-most targeted player, Melvin Gordon. He'll draw a touch matchup this week with Chris Harris Jr. manning the slot for the Broncos, but with the volume he's seen both this season as a whole, as well as the past two weeks (19), his price has been adjusted too much. Allen provides a top-tier talent at a mid-range price.
Amari Cooper ($5,400 DraftKings, $6,600 FanDuel), Dallas Cowboys at Atlanta Falcons: Long-time readers (or listeners of our podcast) will know exactly why I never used to include Amari Cooper in Best Buys. Yes, he's a good player and he's had some great games over the past couple years, but predicting when they would come was next to impossible. Coupled with his unusually high price made him someone that was never really on my cash-game radar. Here's my rationale for this week. Cooper's price is extremely palatable considering the amount of volume he has seen in his first two games with Dallas. He's led Dallas in both catches and targets since the trade. The matchup is also good, with Atlanta allowing a league-high four red zone drives per game and a league-high 1.9 red zone TD-passes per game. This is your chance Amari. In Week 11, together we ride!
Also considering:
DeAndre Hopkins ($7,900 DraftKings, $8,600 FanDuel), Houston Texans at Washington Redskins: Julio Jones, T.Y. Hilton and Odell Beckham Jr. all scored over 21 points against Washington, so why can't Hopkins? Hopkins has found the end zone five times in his last four games. He has also either scored a touchdown or had double-digit targets nine times this season and in 21 consecutive games overall.
Seth Roberts ($3,000 DraftKings, $5,100 FanDuel), Oakland Raiders at Arizona Cardinals: He has scored on 9.7 percent of his career catches. Meanwhile, opponents are completing 74.2 percent of passes against Arizona in the red zone -- the second-highest rate in the league. This is a pure "punt play" on DraftKings for salary relief, for tournament play only.
Tight ends
Zach Ertz ($6,600 DraftKings, $7,600 FanDuel), Philadelphia Eagles at New Orleans Saints: A quick look at DvP shows that New Orleans has looked very solid against tight ends this season -- but Ertz isn't your typical tight end. While he may be slightly less efficient this week based on this matchup, his target totals and usage in the red zone should remain consistent. He's scored 20-plus points in five different games this year and has had seven games with double-digit targets. All of this makes Ertz one of my favorite picks to pay up for again this week in order to build a contrarian lineup.
James O'Shaughnessy ($2,600 DraftKings, $4,000 FanDuel), Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Pittsburgh Steelers: Tight end has been a wasteland for the past few weeks and most of the reliable targets that had been priced in the mid-to-low tier (between $3,000 and $4,000) on DraftKings have moved above $4,500, making them tough to fit. O'Shaughnessy, however, still sits at $2,600 this week after seeing six targets in Week 10 and playing on 52-of-75 snaps in Leonard Fournette's return. Blake Bortles has always peppered his tight ends with targets in this offense. With the low risk involved here and so many other spots I want to pay up for, I'm willing to risk the punt play with a high snap count and offensive involvement. Here's hoping "Big James" can fall into the end zone against the Steelers, who have allowed the sixth-most TE yards and third-most TE catches.
Also considering:
Jared Cook ($3,900 DraftKings, $5,500 FanDuel), Oakland Raiders at Arizona Cardinals: If Cook continues to see looks, playing him should pay off. Arizona is allowing the seventh-highest completion percentage this season while ranking 27th in scoring defense over the past four weeks. There is TD equity to chase here.
Ricky Seals-Jones ($2,900 DraftKings, $5,200 FanDuel), Arizona Cardinals vs. Oakland Raiders: Seals-Jones saw a career-high nine targets last week and ran a route on 84.1 percent of Josh Rosen's dropbacks. Eight different tight ends have scored eight-plus points versus Oakland this season. The Raiders are allowing the seventh-most TE points per game (14.4).
Defenses
My philosophy for picking defenses in DFS is pretty simple. Defensive touchdowns are extremely variant and therefore difficult to predict. The greatest predictor of defensive scoring is the ability to put pressure on the opposing passer, so I look for teams that have a pressure advantage against an overmatched offensive line. Pressure leads to sacks, fumbles and interceptions, all of which can turn into touchdowns, so I aim for the floor from pressure combined with teams that project to run a lot of offensive plays to give me as many chances at the big play as possible.
Here are the defenses I'm focusing on this week:
Baltimore Ravens ($3,200 DraftKings, $4,200 FanDuel), vs. Bengals
New Orleans Saints ($2,100 DraftKings, $3,300 FanDuel), vs. Eagles
Arizona Cardinals ($3,100 DraftKings, $4,000 FanDuel), vs. Raiders
Carolina Panthers ($2,800 DraftKings, $4,000 FanDuel), at Lions
Disclaimer: Al Zeidenfeld is a promoter and user at DraftKings (Username: Al_Smizzle) and plays on his personal account in games he offers advice on. These views/strategies are his own and do not reflect the views of DraftKings. He also might deploy different players/strategies than what he advises.