[The fantasy blocking breakdown series reviews the impact that run and pass blocking have on fantasy football performance, using methodologies detailed here.]
This week's fantasy blocking breakdown looks at the impact Jacksonville's run blocking could have on Carlos Hyde's production, if Marlon Mack and Kerryon Johnson can continue their superb Week 7 fantasy scoring pace and more.
Getting the most out of Carlos Hyde after his trade to Jacksonville
The Hyde trade from Cleveland to Jacksonville wasn't a blockbuster in terms of what the teams traded (the Browns received a fifth-round pick in return for Hyde), but it was a potentially huge deal for Hyde's fantasy football managers, if he can find the upside potential he displayed while posting 1,288 scrimmage yards for San Francisco in 2017.
Hyde didn't come anywhere near that level in his short tenure in Cleveland, posting 411 scrimmage yards in six games, but a lot of that shortfall had to do with the 36.2 percent good blocking rate (GBR) Hyde received on his carries with the Browns. That rate is well below the 44.5 percent league average in this metric that measures how often an offense gives its ball carriers quality run blocking. Hyde also posted a 7.1-yard mark in my good blocking yards per attempt (GBYPA) metric that measures production on rush attempts with good blocking, a pace that is also below the 7.5 league average in GBYPA.
Hyde could see a significant upgrade in both of those areas with Jacksonville. The Jaguars had their worst run blocking effort of the season against Houston in Week 7 with a 20 percent GBR, but Jacksonville has posted a GBR of 52 percent or higher in four contests this season and ranked sixth in the league in GBR headed into Week 7 (48.8 percent). Given a higher caliber of run blocking, Hyde could also see a spike in his GBYPA, as he posted an 8.1 or higher total in that metric in the 2015-17 campaigns. That could offer a significant upgrade to the Jaguars, as their 6.8 team GBYPA this season ranked 26th after Week 6.
If Hyde does end up capitalizing on the potential production spike, fantasy managers could be looking at an RB2 candidate during Leonard Fournette's absence and the potential for Jacksonville to utilize a platoon setup and continue Hyde's start-caliber fantasy value when Fournette returns.
The Colts have the blocking to change to a run-heavy approach with Marlon Mack leading the way
Heading into the Week 7 matchup against Buffalo, the Colts had operated such a pass-heavy offense that Andrew Luck was on pace to throw 768 passes in the 2018 season. That aerial-centric approach came to at least a one-game halt, as Luck threw only 23 passes in the Colts' 37-5 blowout win over the Bills.
A game script that was favorable to the ground game certainly had a lot to do with the decrease in pass attempts, but a lot of credit should also go to a very underrated Indianapolis run-blocking wall. The Colts racked up a strong 56.3 percent GBR against the Bills, but it was not a one-game anomaly, as Indianapolis has now posted a 57.4 percent GBR over the past two games. The Colts have now tallied a 50 percent or higher GBR in three contests and have been below the 42 percent mark in that metric in only one game this season.
That strong run blocking had not panned out into quality ground gains this season with either Jordan Wilkins or Nyheim Hines, as Indianapolis ranked 30th in GBYPA through Week 5, when those two were responsible for nearly all of the team's carries (6.3), but that changed significantly against Buffalo, as Mack was key to the Colts posting their first double-digit GBYPA mark of the season with a 10.5-yard GBYPA.
Don't sell this performance short due to the Buffalo rush defense, as the Bills came into Week 7 ranked eighth in GBR allowed (39.4) and tied for sixth in my good blocking productivity (GBP) metric that measures a platoon's overall rushing game effectiveness (3.0).
This ground game prowess is likely to continue, as Oakland entered Week 7 having ranked 19th or lower in GBP at the end of every week of the 2018 season. Fantasy managers should not consider trading high on Mack, even though the Colts do have a bye coming up in Week 10.
Forget the platoon setup from earlier this season -- the Lions have every reason to make Kerryon Johnson the lead in a lead/alternate setup
Johnson led all players in rushing yards in Week 7 with his 158-yard tally against Miami. Since Johnson had posted more than 70 rushing yards in a game only one time prior to this, his fantasy managers want to know if he can keep producing at or near his Week 7 clip?
If the run blocking grades are any indicator, the answer to this question leans very much towards yes. Detroit has posted a GBR of 46 percent or higher in four out of six games this season, and the Lions ranked tied for 12th in GBP after Week 6 (3.5).
The strong run blocking really didn't pan out to upper-tier production due to in part to LeGarrette Blount posting a mediocre 6.0 GBYPA while largely splitting the carries with Johnson in a platoon workload division.
Johnson had a huge GBYPA lead prior to the Week 7 outburst, as his 9.5-yard mark was more than 50 percent higher than Blount's GBYPA mark, but Johnson's huge day against the Dolphins now has his GBYPA at an 11.6-yard pace, which is nearly double Blount's total.
The Lions' workload split was already trending a bit more in Johnson's favor, as he has 31 carries over the past two weeks versus Blount's 22 carries, but Detroit may want to move that even further in Johnson's direction as four of the Lions' next seven foes (Seattle, Carolina, Los Angeles Rams and Arizona) ranked 15th or lower in the league in GBP allowed headed into Week 7. Johnson has been a good flex candidate in nearly every week this season, but he should now start landing in the RB2 category more often than not.
Quick notes
There have been only 25 games this season in which a team has allowed a pass pressure rate (PPR) of 40 percent or higher. The Houston Texans account for five of those games, including three in their past four contests. These pass-blocking woes have contributed to Deshaun Watson posting a total of 16.2 fantasy points over the past two weeks, as he has tallied minus-1.4 fantasy points on plays outside of the pocket in this time frame.
The Patriots faced a Bears defense that ranked third in sack rate this season (8.9 percent), but New England held that group in check by giving up only one sack in 38 dropbacks. The Patriots controlled the line of scrimmage so well that they allowed a meager 10.5 percent PPR, which is the second lowest single-game total in the PPR metric this season. They didn't achieve this because of an over-reliance on quick passes, as the Patriots 2.3-second average time in pocket was tied for the seventh highest in Week 7. If Tom Brady keeps getting this type of pass protection, his current three-game streak of scoring 21 or more fantasy points could extend to a much longer stretch.