Success in daily fantasy comes down to your ability to find value, identify players in great matchups and maximize the relationships between the players in your roster (otherwise known as correlation).
Each week, I'll go through each position and give you a few players I'm considering for my head-to-head lineups -- usually players who are getting as much volume as possible while also coming in at value prices. I'll also include some players I'm considering for my tournament pool in the write-up section or in the "also considering" section for each position, and while things may change from the time I write this until kickoff on Sunday, I do what I can to keep people updated on my various social media channels all the way up until game time.
With that in mind, here are my favorite plays for Week 7:
Quarterbacks
Jameis Winston ($6,300 DraftKings, $7,800 FanDuel), Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Cleveland Browns: Winston is back and while he has certainly been an inconsistent personality off the field and sometimes does strange things on the sidelines, his performance on the field has really progressed and improved over his past few performances. Averaging 329.8 passing yards in his past six starts (21.1 points per game) and completing 69.3 percent of his passes over his past seven starts is a big step forward from his 60 percent career completion rate prior to this current run. Cleveland's pass defense has been solid and could be a hindrance, but as much as Winston utilizes his tight ends -- along with the depth of talent he has on the outside -- makes me believe he'll turn the tables on the DvP stat this week.
Joe Flacco ($5,400 DraftKings, $7,500 FanDuel), Baltimore Ravens vs. New Orleans Saints: On the other end of the matchup spectrum from the Browns are the Saints, who have allowed opposing quarterbacks to average 26.5 DK points per game this season. The Ravens have a reputation of being a run-first team, but have previously led the league in pass attempts -- and Flacco is second in that category this season behind only Andrew Luck. It's true that passing volume doesn't correlate directly to fantasy scoring, efficiency does. Still, New Orleans is allowing opponents to pass the ball so very efficiently that when you couple the matchup with the volume of throws Flacco has attempted, this could result in a huge day.
C.J. Beathard ($4,800 DraftKings, $6,400 FanDuel), San Francisco 49ers vs. Los Angeles Rams: While there may not be as high a ceiling with Beathard as there is with other quarterbacks on the slate, his floor has been tremendous in his past three games scoring over 17.5 points per game. Considering the price, he'll outperform his cost on both sites as Week 7 salaries came out before his great game on Monday night. There are times we just want to attack the value where it lies in regards to pricing errors, and Beathard is the most incorrectly priced QB on both sites.
Also considering:
Jared Goff ($6,600 DraftKings, $8,300 FanDuel), Los Angeles Rams at San Francisco 49ers: The 49ers have allowed multiple TD passes to every single quarterback this season that has thrown 25-plus passes against them. Goff threw 28 passes last week, even in a Gurley-heavy game.
Kirk Cousins ($6,400 DraftKings, $8,000 FanDuel), Minnesota Vikings at New York Jets: New York blitzes at the fifth-highest rate in the league. Since 2015, only Drew Brees has a higher completion percentage versus the blitz, and Cousins leads the NFL over that stretch in terms of yards per attempt when blitzed.
Running backs
Todd Gurley II ($9,800 DraftKings, $10,200 FanDuel), Los Angeles Rams at San Francisco 49ers: The 49ers were a team we often streamed running backs against over the past two seasons and, while it appears they've fixed some of their deficiencies in that department, a closer look at the San Francisco schedule reveals that they've played against five teams that don't exactly run that ball very efficiently as a part of what they do. The Chargers are the one team they've faced that I'd classify as a very good running team -- and Melvin Gordon rushed for 104 yards on 15 carries in that game, while adding 7 catches for another 55 additional yards. This should be another huge week for Gurley, so I'm not sure sites can price him high enough for me to want to fade him in tournaments. He also remains cash-game viable.
Ezekiel Elliott ($8,100 DraftKings, $8,400 FanDuel), Dallas Cowboys at Washington Redskins: I'm always looking for volume with my running backs and, over the past three weeks, nobody in the league has had more touches than Elliott's 81. Washington is another team that looks good from a DvP perspective but, when we dig a little deeper, we see that only one player (Mark Ingram II) has gotten more than 10 carries in a game against them -- and he scored twice in that contest. Elliot is going to keep getting fed as the Cowboys just don't have anywhere else they can possibly go with the ball. Every other player on the Dallas offense is a complementary player with nary a lead dog on the roster at either wide receiver or tight end. I'll take the 20-25 touches from Elliott and let everyone else try to get cute.
Also considering:
LeSean McCoy ($5,600 DraftKings, $6,200 FanDuel), Buffalo Bills at Indianapolis Colts: McCoy has had 45 touches over the past two weeks, a big bump from the 29 touches he saw in his first three games combined. The Colts are allowing the fourth-most RB completions per game (6.83), so his floor could be elevated this week.
Wide receivers
Adam Thielen ($8,600 DraftKings, $8,700 FanDuel), Minnesota Vikings at New York Jets: What can I say about Thielen that hasn't already been said? He's an absolute stud, benefitting from the presence of a quarterback who excels at exactly the same things that Thielen does well. We identified this as a potential upshot, but there's nobody who predicted this sort of output. So far, he's averaged 13.5 targets and 28.5 DK points per game, while scoring touchdowns in three straight games. Five players have gone more than 100 yards receiving against the Jets so far this season, and Thielen is very clearly the best receiver they'll have faced thus far. If you can't afford him in cash games, I get it. Still, don't fade him in tournaments.
Robert Woods ($7,000 DraftKings, $7,700 FanDuel), Los Angeles Rams at San Francisco 49ers: As has been well chronicled in my articles, podcasts and videos, Cooper Kupp is the Rams receiver you want to roster because of his tremendous inclusion when Los Angeles gets inside the red zone. This week, however, Kupp will be out -- leaving a 27.1 percent share of the Rams' red-zone targets to be distributed. Woods is the main candidate to see a massive bump. He has shown a great floor with five-plus catches and 80-plus receiving yards in five straight games. Woods and Adam Thielen are the only two players in the NFL to have that long of a streak in 2018, which already betters any such run from a wideout in 2017.
Willie Snead IV ($4,000 DraftKings, $5,400 FanDuel), Baltimore Ravens vs. New Orleans Saints: Setting aside any "revenge game" narrative, the Saints have allowed the most WR points per game in the league through the first six weeks. More specifically, their CB2 and slot corners have been extremely exploitable -- and that's what we're going to be targeting here. This is more than a "dart throw", as Snead has been getting a sizable share of targets over the past three weeks (24), with no less than seven looks in any single game -- and double-digit fantasy points in each contest. We're looking at predictable volume, a great floor for the price, and all the upside we could want against a defense that hasn't been able to stop anything through the air in 2018.
Also considering:
Michael Thomas ($7,900 DraftKings, $8,600 FanDuel), New Orleans Saints at Baltimore Ravens: Over the past two seasons, New Orleans has scored 93 total points in the week immediately following their bye. Five different receivers have seen more than seven targets against the Ravens this season, and they've averaged 18.02 points per game.
Jermaine Kearse ($4,100 DraftKings, $5,000 FanDuel), New York Jets vs. Minnesota Vikings: Few positions in the NFL have had as much fantasy relevance in 2018 as Sam Darnold's slot receiver. For the first few weeks that position was filled by Quincy Enunwa, who saw as many targets as he could handle -- resulting in amazing fantasy value. The past two weeks, Enunwa has been moved to the outside and Kearse has been shifted into that role. The move paid immediate dividends as Kearse caught 9-of-10 balls thrown his way. This is a target-volume play going after as many as we can get for a very cheap price. The Vikings are allowing 121.7 slot receiving yards per game this season (fourth-most in the league) and 10.4 yards per slot attempt (third-most).
Tight ends
George Kittle ($5,000 DraftKings, $6,400 FanDuel), San Francisco 49ers vs. Los Angeles Rams: Kittle has been very consistent (and very good) with six-plus targets in the past four games and an average of 15.9 yards per catch (third-most at the position). On the other side of the scale, the Rams have allowed 5.3 TE receptions per game, ninth-most in the league. I think Kittle makes for an excellent tournament play this week as I typically look to pay down at tight end. If you have the money, though, he's certainly cash-game viable.
David Njoku ($4,200 DraftKings, $5,700 FanDuel), Cleveland Browns vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Since Week 4, Njoku has as many targets as Jarvis Landry (26) but has brought in 18 of those targets compared to just 11 from Landry. I was enthralled with Njoku's athleticism the entire offseason because of his projected increase in snap and target volume, and he has really taken advantage of all his opportunities since Baker Mayfield took over as the Browns starter. He's had three straight games with five catches and 50 yards, which gets us within two points of him reaching value on DraftKings, so you know I love his floor. However, he's also a massive red-zone target, which brings him big-game upside for tournaments. I'm still on Njoku this week, but this should be our last chance to get him into our lineups at this low price point.
Also considering:
Zach Ertz ($7,100 DraftKings, $7,500 FanDuel), Philadelphia Eagles vs. Carolina Panthers: Opponents facing Carolina are completing 80 percent of passes thrown to tight ends this season.Only Tampa Bay has been worse at defending the position. Ertz has been responsible for 72.7 percent of Philadelphia's TE receptions.
O.J. Howard ($3,600 DraftKings, $5,800 FanDuel), Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Cleveland Browns: Howard's 18.9 yards per catch lead the TE position this season. Tampa Bay is passing at the second-highest rate when in the red zone this season, and 54.2 percent of Jameis Winston's TD passes since the beginning of last season have gone to the tight ends.
Defenses
My philosophy for picking defenses in DFS is pretty simple. Defensive touchdowns are extremely variant and therefore difficult to predict. The greatest predictor of defensive scoring is the ability to put pressure on the opposing passer, so I look for teams that have a pressure advantage against an overmatched offensive line. Pressure leads to sacks, fumbles and interceptions, all of which can turn into touchdowns, so I aim for the floor from pressure combined with teams that project to run a lot of offensive plays to give me as many chances at the big play as possible.
Here are the defenses I'm focusing on this week:
Indianapolis Colts ($3,300 DraftKings, $4,100 FanDuel), vs. Bills
Philadelphia Eagles ($2,600 DraftKings, $4,200 FanDuel), vs. Panthers
Cleveland Browns ($2,300 DraftKings, $3,200 FanDuel), at Tampa Bay
Disclaimer: Al Zeidenfeld is a promoter and user at DraftKings (Username: Al_Smizzle) and plays on his personal account in games he offers advice on. These views/strategies are his own and do not reflect the views of DraftKings. He might also deploy different players/strategies than what he advises.