Matchups are often a driving force behind fantasy managers' weekly lineup decisions. When choosing between two (or more) similarly talented players, you know the first question that comes to mind: Which one has the best matchup?
Ah, but what, exactly, constitutes a favorable or unfavorable matchup?
That's where the "Matchups Map" comes in. Each week, I'll provide a schedule-independent method to determine strength of positional matchups, using the most recent, relevant data. Check back for updated numbers each week, including matchups highlights at each position -- both favorable and unfavorable -- based upon those statistics. For these purposes, we will use PPR (Point Per Reception) scoring, though I have analyzed this data for both PPR and non-PPR and have found that the rankings would scarcely change (if at all). These do, therefore, help in either scoring format.
The maps include two measures: The first, "Rk," is my personal ranking of how favorable/unfavorable I consider that positional matchup; the second, "Adj. FPA," reflects how far above or below a player's average that defense held opponents at that position. All data is from the past five weeks' NFL action.
Finally, a caveat: Matchups are only one ingredient in my rankings formula. Not every favorable matchup should be exploited; not every unfavorable matchup should be avoided. To get the most complete recipe for whom to start and sit, consult my weekly rankings.
Quarterbacks
Favorable matchup: Baker Mayfield, Cleveland Browns (at Tampa Bay Buccaneers). The Buccaneers' defense hasn't intercepted any of the past 100 passes it has faced, and it has two sacks in its past two games, surrendering 70.9 fantasy points combined to Mitchell Trubisky and Matt Ryan in the process. Trubisky, incidentally, averaged 1.5 fantasy points per pass attempt in that Week 4 game, the highest rate per attempt by any player in the league this season. Although Mayfield isn't even as polished a passer as the second-year Trubisky, he does have 7.0 yards-per-attempt and a 2.6 percent touchdown rate -- those aren't really out of line with the 6.7/3.4 averages by rookie quarterbacks this century -- and he did so despite two tough matchups out of his three starts coupled with one of the weaker receiving corps around the league. In this matchup, Mayfield's receivers shouldn't have much trouble getting open, especially slot receiver Jarvis Landry, who faces a defense that has afforded slot receivers 20 PPR fantasy points more than any other team in the league (and that's despite the Buccaneers having already had their bye), and tight end David Njoku, who faces a defense ranked 30th against his position (see below). Things seem to be aligned nicely enough for Mayfield to have a chance at a top-10 week.
Unfavorable matchup: Andrew Luck, Indianapolis Colts (vs. Buffalo Bills). He's a difficult player to bench solely due to the monstrous amount of volume he has absorbed, as he's on pace for 768 pass attempts this season, which would be by far the most in league history. That said, this matchup makes Luck unattractive on a per-play basis, with Kirk Cousins' Week 3 performance against the Bills as representative as any: He scored just 10.0 fantasy points despite attempting a whopping 55 throws. In fact, the Bills have faced Cousins, Aaron Rodgers, Marcus Mariota and Deshaun Watson in the past four weeks and have surrendered a combined 34.5 fantasy points to them on 146 passing and 11 rushing attempts. Thanks to the excellent play of Tre'Davious White, as well as the solid performance of Phillip Gaines, the Bills have made things especially tough for opposing wide receivers, and Luck will play this game potentially without or with a less-than-full-strength T.Y. Hilton (hamstring). If you use Luck, understand that you're doing so based almost exclusively on his elevated statistical floor created by his likelihood of 40-plus pass attempts.
Running backs
Favorable matchup: Kerryon Johnson, Detroit Lions (at Miami Dolphins). Although he suffered an ankle injury in the team's Week 4 game, the bye week's rest apparently did him some good, as he's practicing early in the week and is fully expected to play. Johnson's explosiveness makes him an intriguing option going forward, as he has taken eight of his 50 carries for 10-plus yards, with that 16 percent rate fourth-best among running backs with at least 50 attempts. While the Dolphins tend to be a weaker defense against pass-catching running backs -- James White (31.2 PPR fantasy points in Week 4), Tarik Cohen (23.1 in Week 6) and Dion Lewis (22.0 in Week 1) have the three best single-week point totals against them this season -- Johnson is plenty capable in the receiving game, with 15 targets for 19.8 of his 54.4 points this season in that department. Overall, the Dolphins have been the third-worst defense against the position in the past five weeks (5.8 Adjusted Fantasy Points Allowed).
Unfavorable matchup: Lamar Miller, Houston Texans (at Jacksonville Jaguars). The Jaguars have had a bit of a tough draw against opposing running backs thus far, having faced Saquon Barkley (Week 1), Sony Michel and James White (Week 2), Kareem Hunt (Week 5) and Ezekiel Elliott (Week 6), yet for the season have minus-7.5 Adjusted Fantasy Points Allowed, second-fewest in the league. Miller, unfortunately, is no Barkley, Hunt or Elliott, having averaged 3.7 yards per carry and 9.8 PPR fantasy points per game. While Miller's 16.6 touches-per-game average might look appealing enough to trust him as an RB2/flex, this matchup renders him only a borderline play, even in 12-team leagues. Frankly, I'd rather have a higher-upside matchup from a back getting fewer touches, such as Philip Lindsay or Frank Gore.
Wide receivers
Favorable matchup: John Brown, Baltimore Ravens (vs. New Orleans Saints). Ravens wide receivers as a whole get generally advantageous matchups in Week 6, against a Saints defense that has afforded league highs in terms of both PPR fantasy points per game (51.9) and points per target (2.38). Breaking down the numbers further, it's the second, third and depth options that have done most of the damage, as the defense is second for the season in terms of Adjusted Fantasy Points Allowed, but eighth specifically against opposing WR1s. The reason? Marshon Lattimore, who hasn't had a great season but still represents the toughest individual matchup in the Saints' secondary. He'll probably cover Michael Crabtree more often than Brown this week, making Brown a potential standout. Willie Snead IV, who has scored at least 10 points in five of his six games, is also worth a look in 12-plus-team leagues.
Unfavorable matchup: Corey Davis, Tennessee Titans (at Los Angeles Chargers). He continues to receive top-dog treatment by Marcus Mariota, with 36, 24 and 29 percent target shares the past three weeks, but this is yet another matchup in which Davis probably won't manage much with the large slice of the pie he receives. The Chargers have been giving opposing wide receivers fits in recent weeks, allowing an average of 28.8 PPR fantasy points with minus-3.9 Adjusted Fantasy Points Allowed the past three weeks, the latter fourth-best in the league. During that time, the team allowed opposing WR1s Pierre Garcon 9.2 points (Week 4), Amari Cooper 2.0 (Week 5) and Jarvis Landry 3.1 (Week 6).
Tight ends
Favorable matchup: C.J. Uzomah, Cincinnati Bengals (at Kansas City Chiefs). Fantasy managers have had to dig deep to fill the tight-end spot in many cases this season, and Uzomah stands out as one of Week 7's best streaming choices. After Tyler Eifert (ankle) was lost for the season, Uzomah played 91 and 91 percent of the Bengals' offensive snaps in Weeks 5 and 6, drawing seven targets in the latter, two of them coming in the red zone. While the Chiefs' defense is bad all around, it has been especially susceptible to the big game from tight ends, especially beneath-the-radar types such as Uzomah. Jesse James scored 24.8 PPR fantasy points against the Chiefs in Week 2, Jeff Heuerman scored 9.7 against them in Week 4, and Niles Paul scored 13.5 against them in Week 5.
Unfavorable matchup: Greg Olsen, Carolina Panthers (at Philadelphia Eagles). While Olsen's return to the lineup in Week 6 was certainly encouraging -- he played 98 percent of the Panthers' snaps, was targeted seven times, caught four of those and scored 8.8 PPR fantasy points -- let's not overlook that he's still a player working his way back to full strength off a significant injury. He'll probably see at least five targets, but his odds aren't great against an Eagles defense that has given tight ends a lot of trouble this season. Austin Hooper scored just 5.4 points against them in Week 1, Eric Ebron scored 8.3 against them in Week 3 in a game missed by Jack Doyle, and the team has afforded the position a 59.4 percent catch rate, fifth-lowest in the league.