Matchups are often a driving force behind fantasy managers' weekly lineup decisions. When choosing between two (or more) similarly talented players, you know the first question that comes to mind: Which one has the best matchup?
Ah, but what, exactly, constitutes a favorable or unfavorable matchup?
That's where the "Matchups Map" comes in. Each week, I'll provide a schedule-independent method to determine strength of positional matchups, using the most recent, relevant data. Check back for updated numbers each week, including matchups highlights at each position -- both favorable and unfavorable -- based upon those statistics. For these purposes, we will use PPR (point per reception) scoring, though I have analyzed this data for both PPR and non-PPR and have found that the rankings would scarcely change (if at all). These do, therefore, help in either scoring format.
The maps include two measures: The first, "Rk," is my personal ranking of how favorable/unfavorable I consider that positional matchup; the second, "Adj. FPA," reflects how far above or below a player's average that defense held opponents at that position. All data is from the past five weeks' NFL action.
Finally, a caveat: Matchups are only one ingredient in my rankings formula. Not every favorable matchup should be exploited; not every unfavorable matchup should be avoided. To get the most complete recipe for whom to start and sit, consult my weekly rankings.
Quarterbacks
Favorable matchup: Andy Dalton, Cincinnati Bengals (versus Pittsburgh Steelers). While the Steelers' defense had a much-improved performance against Matt Ryan and the Atlanta Falcons in Week 5, it's still one of the weaker pass defenses in the game, having surrendered the seventh-most fantasy points per pass attempt (0.52). In particular, theirs is a secondary lacking in depth, with slot receivers a weakness that Dalton can exploit -- and exploit it he will, considering his remarkably good chemistry with slot man Tyler Boyd to date. Tyrod Taylor (23.6 fantasy points in Week 1), Ryan Fitzpatrick (25.1, Week 3) and Joe Flacco (22.2, Week 4) were matchups standouts against the Steelers through the season's first five weeks and Patrick Mahomes (38.8, Week 2) had a career-best performance against them. Dalton has already shown an uptick in his completion percentage (65.8) and yards per attempt average (7.7) this season, and is well worth slotting into your lineup.
Unfavorable matchup: Carson Wentz, Philadelphia Eagles (at New York Giants). He's making incremental gains as he works his way back to full strength following December ACL surgery, boosting his fantasy point total from 11.2 to 20.7 to 21.0 in his three games this season and generally looking good in each of the past two. This game, however, comes on a short week, against a Giants defense that has played well against opposing quarterbacks, including limiting Cam Newton to 16.4 fantasy points (Week 5) and Drew Brees to 8.6 (Week 6) the past two weeks. Much of the reason for that has been the team's strategy to use cornerback Janoris Jenkins to shadow the opponent's top receiver -- Devin Funchess and Michael Thomas in these instances -- in those games, something that should again be the case with Alshon Jeffery on Thursday. Zach Ertz could be tasked with being Wentz's go-to guy, but the Giants have also improved their defense somewhat against tight ends. Wentz will get to QB1 status with time, but he's still not more than a QB2 for this matchup.
Running backs
Favorable matchup: Sony Michel, New England Patriots (versus Kansas City Chiefs). While the Chiefs are routinely criticized for their struggles against the pass -- surely you remember Philip Rivers' and Ben Roethlisberger's huge games against them -- the position against which they have performed poorest is actually the running backs. No defense has afforded running backs a greater average number of fantasy points per rushing attempt (0.84), and Austin Ekeler (23.6 PPR fantasy points in Week 1) and T.J. Yeldon (26.2, Week 5) both had huge games against the Chiefs, both players overshadowed by the performance of their teams' quarterbacks. That's a similar situation to New England's, where Tom Brady appears aligned to be under the spotlight, though Michael does have at least 18 rushing attempts in each of the past two weeks and is every bit as likely to put up a huge game. Michel has averaged 4.9 yards and amassed seven carries of 10-plus yards the past two weeks combined, while the Chiefs have allowed 21 of opponents' 103 carries (20.4 percent) to go for 10-plus yards this year.
Unfavorable matchup: Carlos Hyde, Cleveland Browns (versus Los Angeles Chargers). A hefty volume of rushing attempts as well as goal-line carries -- his 100 of the former is second only to Todd Gurley II's 101 and his nine of the latter matches Gurley for the league's lead -- has had a lot to do with Hyde's early fantasy success, but in Week 5, he went up against the toughest matchup in the league and posted a mere 9.7 PPR fantasy points. Hyde's workload is driving his fantasy-starter status, but it's difficult envisioning him maintaining a 320-carry, 339-touch seasonal pace and the Browns are going to need to get home-run threat Nick Chubb involved at some point. While the Chargers' defense was dealt a blow with Joey Bosa's (foot) injury, they got Corey Liuget back from suspension in Week 5 and have been excellent against the run thus far. This defense held Kareem Hunt to 4.9 PPR fantasy points in Week 1, LeSean McCoy to 10.8 in Week 2 and Marshawn Lynch to 6.1 in Week 5.
Wide receivers
Favorable matchup: Calvin Ridley, Atlanta Falcons (versus Tampa Bay Buccaneers. The Buccaneers' Adjusted Fantasy Points Allowed number in the chart below isn't a typo -- they've truly graded a plus-15.9 against opposing wide receivers through five weeks. That's how poorly this secondary has performed to date, and it's generous to wide receivers of all types, whether perimeter or slot. For example, against opposing WR1s -- Michael Thomas, Nelson Agholor, Antonio Brown and Allen Robinson their identities -- the Buccaneers have plus-5.5 Adj. FPA, which is second behind only the Cleveland Browns' plus-5.6. That makes it difficult to choose between Julio Jones, Ridley and Mohamed Sanu, though Ridley's my pick because of his big-play potential and promising red-zone usage to date. Get all three players into your lineup, though, considering this defense has allowed six individual wide receivers at least 17 points through its first four games.
Unfavorable matchup: Keelan Cole, Jacksonville Jaguars (at Dallas Cowboys). I'm no fan of any of the Jaguars' wide receivers this week, but Cole is the one typically most rostered and started in ESPN leagues. The Cowboys have been a beneath-the-radar success story against opposing wide receivers to date, and while some of that has to do with the team seeing fewer targets than your average defense, it's also in large part due to the strong play of cornerbacks Anthony Brown and Byron Jones. This team has held players like Devin Funchess (7.1 PPR fantasy points in Week 1), Odell Beckham Jr. (9.1, Week 2) and Marvin Jones Jr. (8.6, Week 4) in check, though in fairness, Golden Tate (33.2, Week 4) and DeAndre Hopkins (22.1, Week 5) did enjoy huge games against the Cowboys. Cole simply isn't either receiver's equal, nor does the Jaguars' receiving game match up to either the Lions' or Texans'.
Tight ends
Favorable matchup: Ricky Seals-Jones, Arizona Cardinals (at Minnesota Vikings). While the Cardinals aren't historically known for utilizing their tight ends heavily in the passing game, Seals-Jones finds himself on pace for 77 targets, which would be the most by any Cardinals tight end since Freddie Jones had 85 back in 2003. That's not a great amount of volume, nor is it close to being that. It is enough, however, to put Seals-Jones into the matchups conversation, and this is one of his best ones. The Vikings have had an exceedingly difficult time keeping opposing tight ends in check, with Zach Ertz (27.0 PPR fantasy points in Week 5) and Jimmy Graham (15.5, Week 2) enjoying season highs in points against them and George Kittle putting up 14.0 points of his own against them in Week 1. Seals-Jones has been routinely getting looks on deeper throws -- his 10.6-yard average depth of target is fifth-highest among tight ends -- and is a worthwhile boom/bust fill-in for Week 6.
Unfavorable matchup: Cameron Brate, Buccaneers (at Falcons). Word that O.J. Howard (knee) might be ready to return for Sunday's game casts a shadow on Brate's usefulness, but even if Howard is held out for another week, Brate isn't a strong choice for a fantasy lineup. If there has been one strength for the Falcons' defense thus far, it has been keeping opposing tight ends in check, as Zach Ertz managed just 9.8 PPR fantasy points against them in Week 1, while Vance McDonald and Jesse James combined for 5.6 as recently as Week 5. Brate's best odds here are the prospect of red-zone targets -- he converted each of his in Weeks 3 and 4 for touchdowns.