[The fantasy blocking breakdown series reviews the impact that run- and pass-blocking have on fantasy football performance, using methodologies detailed here.]
This week's fantasy blocking breakdown looks at if fantasy managers can expect more big days from Isaiah Crowell, in which direction the metrics say Devonta Freeman and Tevin Coleman are trending, if Russell Wilson can return to consistent QB1-caliber fantasy outings, and more.
It's time to start believing in the New York Jets' ground game
Isaiah Crowell scored 30.1 fantasy points (ESPN standard) in Week 5 by racking up the first 200-yard rushing game of the 2018 season, ultimately finishing with 219 yards against the Broncos.
Since Crowell came into the game having scored only 1.3 points in Week 4 and having rushed for only 69 yards in the previous three weeks combined, his fantasy managers are wondering if they should plan on putting him into starting lineups going forward -- or immediately on the block as a trade-high candidate.
The Jets' run-blocking metrics offer strong guidance in this area. The league average in my good-blocking rate (GBR) metric, which measures how often an offense gives its ball carriers quality run-blocking, is 43.9 percent. The Jets have posted a GBR of equal to, or higher than that, in three of five games -- and have been at or above the 50 percent GBR level in two contests.
The Jets have been even better in my good-blocking yards-per-attempt (GBYPA) metric, which gauges how productive ball carriers are when given quality run-blocking. The league average here is 7.7, a threshold the Jets have equaled or topped in all five of their games.
The major hurdle to Crowell getting maximum value out of this superb run-blocking is a tough schedule, as three of the Jets' next five opponents ranked 11th or better after Week 4 in my good-blocking productivity (GBP) metric, which measures a unit's overall rushing effectiveness. The potential offset to this is that Denver's defense came into its Week 5 matchup against the Jets ranked No. 3 in GBP (2.4) and the Jets proceeded to destroy the Broncos with a ridiculously high 7.8 GBP.
This level of blocking consistency is not easy to come by, so the recommendation is to not trade high on Crowell, but rather view him as a hit-or-miss flex candidate who is capable of giving your fantasy team a win on those multiple occasions when the Jets' run-blocking does hit on all cylinders.
Consider making trade offers for Devonta Freeman and Tevin Coleman
This season, Freeman and Coleman may be the most disappointing RB duo in all of fantasy football. Freeman has missed most of the 2018 campaign due to injury and tallied only 6.1 points against Pittsburgh. Coleman was expected to have high-upside potential while taking over the main backfield duties during Freeman's absence, but he averaged only 12.9 points per game while Freeman was out and managed to score only 5.0 points of his own versus the Steelers.
So what's the problem? Subpar blocking looks to be part of it at first glance, as Atlanta's 35.8 percent GBR after Week 4 ranked 28th overall, but that number is vastly skewed by the Falcons' 19.1 percent GBR in their Week 3 matchup against the Saints. Take that contest out of the equation and Atlanta's GBR skyrockets to a 47.7 percent level that would contend for a top-10 ranking.
A tough schedule is also a significant contributing factor, as two of Atlanta's first five opponents ranked in the league's top five in GBP allowed (Philadelphia and New Orleans) headed into Sunday's action. The slate gets a lot more favorable here in the near future, as Tampa Bay and Washington, two of Atlanta's next three foes, ranked 30th and 31st, respectively, in GBR allowed through Week 4.
Add these two factors together and it's clear that the Falcons' rushing game is very likely to combine strong blocking with weak matchups in the near future. That makes Freeman and Coleman "keep" candidates for fantasy managers who have them on rosters, but it also makes them high percentage "buy low" options in leagues where their managers are ready to throw in the proverbial towel on this duo.
Russell Wilson should be returning to his QB1 ceiling very soon
Wilson ranked fourth in ADP at quarterback in ESPN leagues this season, but he has failed to return QB1-caliber points for the investment. Wilson has been a top-10 scoring quarterback only once in the first five weeks of the season and has ranked 17th-or-lower on three occasions.
A major part of why Wilson has fallen short of expectations is a lack of aerial production. Wilson's 198 passing yards against the Rams marked the third game in a row that Wilson has not reached the 200-passing yard milestone -- the longest such streak for Wilson since the 2014 season.
The Seahawks' renewed emphasis on running the ball is a major factor in that streak, but they also haven't been throwing the ball much because they can't protect Wilson when they do choose to pass. Seattle came into Week 4 with the second-highest pass pressure rate (PPR) allowed (38.8 percent) and finished last in Week 5 with a 47.8 PPR.
Wilson had not dealt with pass-rush pressure very well this season from a fantasy scoring perspective, as his 3.1 fantasy points through Week 4 on plays with pass-rush pressure ranked No. 28 among quarterbacks. This is a stark contrast to how Wilson did in 2017, as his 69.4 fantasy points on pass-rush pressure plays ranked No. 2 in that category. He gained those points both through the air (800 passing yards, seven passing touchdowns) and on the ground (254 rushing yards).
The Week 5 contest against the Rams may have signaled that Wilson is getting back to his 2017 form, as he scored 7.9 points on pass-rush pressure plays via 98 passing yards and one passing touchdown. The fact that he had zero rushing yards on those plays is a concern that suggests he isn't going to be scrambling for many yards this season, but the extra production on these plays was enough to vault Wilson to No. 11 in Week 5's QB fantasy points.
This could continue to push his value into QB1 territory a lot more often down the road, and makes Wilson a quality "keep candidate" as well as a potentially valuable "trade candidate" in those leagues where his fantasy manager is still unsure of whether or not to trust his Week 5 fantasy production uptick.
Quick notes
Carolina came into Week 5 as the NFL leader in my run-blocking grades, yet the Panthers' matchup against the Giants showcased their potential pass-blocking prowess. The Panthers had the lowest PPR rate allowed in Week 5 (13.5), despite facing a Giants defense that ranked No. 8 in PPR generated through Week 4 (31.2). This offers a path for Cam Newton to start posting higher passing yardage totals, which could push him into 20-plus point territory -- even when his rushing yardage is under par.
James Conner's 34.5 fantasy points against Atlanta led the league through Week 5's Sunday action. He and his fantasy managers can give many thanks to the Steelers' blockers, as Pittsburgh's 51.9 GBR in this contest was a season high for the club.