Matchups are often a driving force behind fantasy football managers' weekly lineup decisions. When choosing between two (or more) similarly talented players, you know the first question that comes to mind: Which one has the best matchup?
Ah, but what, exactly, constitutes a favorable or unfavorable matchup?
That's where the "Matchups Map" comes in. Each week, I'll provide a schedule-independent method to determine strength of positional matchups, using the most recent, relevant data. Check back for updated numbers each week, including matchups highlights at each position -- both favorable and unfavorable -- based upon those statistics. For these purposes, we will use PPR (point per reception) scoring, though I have analyzed this data for both PPR and non-PPR and have found that the rankings would scarcely change (if at all). These do, therefore, help in either scoring format.
The maps include two measures: The first, "Rk," is my personal ranking of how favorable/unfavorable I consider that positional matchup; the second, "Adj. FPA," reflects how far above or below a player's average that defense held opponents at that position. For Week 5, we'll use 2018 data (four weeks are already in the books), but beginning with Week 6, we'll use the most recent five weeks.
Finally, a couple of caveats: The "Adj. FPA" statistics in this week's column represent only a four-week, smaller-than-usual sample, so my personal ranking ("Rk") won't fall quite in line as it will in future weeks.
Also, remember that matchups are only one ingredient in my rankings formula. Not every favorable matchup should be exploited; not every unfavorable matchup should be avoided. To get the most complete recipe for whom to start and sit, consult my weekly rankings.
Quarterbacks
Favorable matchup: Blake Bortles, Jacksonville Jaguars (at Kansas City Chiefs). Though the Chiefs' defense appeared at first glance to turn it around against the pass in Week 4, limiting Case Keenum to 7.8 fantasy points and seemingly handing the title of "best matchup for an opposing quarterback" to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, let's not overreact to the most recent week's returns. The seasonal data supports the Chiefs as a stronger competition-adjusted matchup of the two, and Keenum's mistake-prone ways so far this year made the defense look better than it does on paper. Bortles also brings a reputation for being mistake-prone, but he has improved somewhat in that regard -- 13 interceptions and three lost fumbles in his past 20 games -- and tends to lean on a shorter-range passing approach that exploits a particular weakness of the Chiefs. Their 83 percent completion and 7.2 yards per attempt rates on short-range throws (ones that traveled 5 or fewer yards downfield) are NFL worsts. Bortles could be a volume-driven matchups monster in this game.
Unfavorable matchup: Russell Wilson, Seattle Seahawks (vs. Los Angeles Rams). While the Rams' defensive numbers in Week 4 might've seemed unimpressive, they nevertheless exhibited the traits that make them one of the game's best on paper, including their four sacks, six pass breakups and four passes defended, all of which ranked among the week's top eight. Their defensive line, anchored by Aaron Donald and Ndamukong Suh, should make things difficult for Wilson, especially as it pertains to his quiet-to-date running game. Barring a sudden return to full strength for Doug Baldwin, Wilson simply lacks the receiving personnel that either Kirk Cousins (31.7 fantasy points in Week 4) or Philip Rivers (17.0 in Week 3) has, with his prospects looking more in line with Derek Carr's (6.2 in Week 1). By the way, even at Wilson's best and against a Rams defense that didn't have Suh (or Marcus Peters) in 2017, he had just 11.5 (Week 5) and 11.6 (Week 15) fantasy points in these teams' two meetings, his second- and third-worst single-game scores all season.
Running backs
Favorable matchup: Aaron Jones, Green Bay Packers (at Detroit Lions). Though he had the same number of carries (11) as Jamaal Williams in Week 4, playing only eight more snaps than Williams (28-20), it was clear, once again, that Jones is the Packers' true home run hitter among running backs. He had four first downs to Williams' two, had the team's only rushing touchdown and the team's only carry of 20 yards or greater. In his 14-game NFL career, Jones has averaged 5.7 yards per carry, and it won't be long before he's getting the vast majority of the team's rushing work -- this could be the week. Considering the matchup, he's one of the most appealing running backs widely regarded in the flex-play tier, as Jones' strength is his rushing between the tackles, where he has averaged 8.0 yards per attempt in his two games thus far. The opposing Lions, meanwhile, have surrendered by far the league's worst average on runs between the tackles (6.5 yards per attempts), and they have been beaten up to the tune of 34.0 PPR fantasy points by Ezekiel Elliott (Week 4), 24.9 by Matt Breida (Week 2) and 22.2 by Isaiah Crowell (Week 1) overall.
Unfavorable matchup: Carlos Hyde, Cleveland Browns (vs. Baltimore Ravens). He has an NFL-leading 83 carries and has accounted for 79 percent of the team's attempts by running backs (83 of 105), so from a volume perspective it's difficult to bet against Hyde, but this matchup will minimize his per-carry punch like almost no other one on his entire 2018 schedule. The Ravens have bottled up opposing running backs at a rate unlike any other team, and while game flow did play a part in these, it's notable nonetheless that LeSean McCoy had 3.1 PPR fantasy points against them (on eight touches in Week 1), Joe Mixon 9.7 (on 22 in Week 2), Royce Freeman 12.8 (on 14 in Week 3) and James Conner 9.4 (on 12 in Week 4). The Browns also just got a glimpse of the kind of big-play ability rookie Nick Chubb has, and they are surely to slow Hyde's current seasonal pace of 332 carries and 348 touches at some point.
Wide receivers
Favorable matchup: Jamison Crowder, Washington Redskins (at New Orleans Saints). The Saints' secondary has been getting routed through four weeks, affording opposing wide receivers the most total PPR fantasy points (231.5) and average fantasy points per target (2.7), which is odd if you consider they boast 2017 rookie sensation Marshon Lattimore. Lattimore's play has been sluggish, but the Saints' primary problem has been the remainder of its secondary, as evidenced by the fact that opposing WR1s -- a stout group that includes Mike Evans (Week 1), Julio Jones (Week 3) and Odell Beckham Jr. (Week 4) -- have scored only 74.1 of those 231.5 fantasy points, or 32 percent, meaning a whopping 68 percent came from players who weren't primarily covered by Lattimore. Crowder should be spared that one-on-one matchup more than either Josh Doctson or Paul Richardson due to his frequent usage out of the slot, as 67 of his 85 routes run (or 79 percent) have come out of that alignment.
Unfavorable matchup: Corey Davis, Tennessee Titans (at Buffalo Bills). Last week's 31.1 PPR fantasy points on a team-high 15 targets in a much-improved performance by Marcus Mariota was promising, but Davis' next two matchups say it's worth pumping the brakes a bit. This week, Davis has to tangle with Bills cornerback Tre'Davious White, who limited Davante Adams to a respectable-but-beneath-his-seasonal-average 16.1 points (2.5 beneath his average) in Week 4 and has had a big say in the team's top-eight-to-date performance against opposing wide receivers overall. Next week, Davis will draw the Ravens' Brandon Carr/Jimmy Smith combo, with Smith's return in Week 5 likely to vault the defense up the rankings next week. Consider Davis a WR3 and don't get carried away with yesterday's stats.
Tight ends
Favorable matchup: Rhett Ellison, New York Giants (at Carolina Panthers). The tight end position has been pummeled by injuries thus far, including season-enders to Greg Olsen, Delanie Walker, Hunter Henry, Tyler Eifert, Will Dissly and Jake Butt and multiple-week absences by Evan Engram, Jack Doyle and O.J. Howard, making the decision-making process at the position more about health and role than the matchups themselves. If you lost any of the above nine, however, you might be piecing the position together until someone emerges, and Ellison's role and matchup rank among the more appealing such Week 5 combinations. The Panthers have faced a rather soft tight end schedule, yet surrendered 16.9 PPR fantasy points to Austin Hooper in Week 2 and a combined 23.3 to Eifert and C.J. Uzomah in Week 3. Ellison has been utilized more than you might think in Engram's absence, with five red zone routes run and one red zone target in each of the past two weeks.
Unfavorable matchup: David Njoku, Browns (vs. Ravens). The Ravens haven't faced the toughest of tight end schedules, either, yet they've still shaved an average of five PPR fantasy points per game off opponents' tight ends through four weeks, showing how stingy their defense is. That's a particular problem for Njoku, whose red zone usage to date has been rather disappointing: five routes run and zero targets. He's simply not getting looks in scoring position, and when the matchup says his odds of a good catch rate are low, he's just not TE1 material.