Over the final five games of the 2017 NFL season, Miami Dolphins running back Kenyan Drake rushed for 444 yards with 4.88 yards per carry -- including an average of 2.67 yards after first contact. The film? It's loaded with plays that pop, too. Dynamic stuff. That's the long speed, the sweet feet and the receiving skills. Yeah, Drake looked like a guy with some serious upside to close out the year.
However, when we dive a little deeper into Drake's resume, is he primed to emerge as a true, workhorse back in '18? Or, are we chasing hype here based on a pretty small sample size? Let's get into it and discuss where managers should target Drake in fantasy drafts.
The upside on Drake
Start with the games versus Denver (Week 13) and New England (Week 14) from last season. That's where Drake put together a highlight film as both a runner and a receiver. In just those two weeks, Drake logged 48 carries, racked up 234 yards on the ground and posted eight receptions in the box score. High-volume touches there. Big-play speed, too. And the pass-catching skills to dice up linebackers in coverage. That sells.
Drake also ripped off three explosive runs (plays over 20 yards) in those two ball games, and he totaled six runs of 30-plus yards over the course of the season. This guy can go. With 4.45 clock speed that translates to the field, Drake showed that he can hit some home runs. And he gets to the second level with a combination of footwork and some power. Drake has the ability to shake defenders in space. The jump-cut, the spin, the quick slide to dip out of trouble.
Plus, if you look at Drake's numbers from the entire '17 season, his 2.50 yards per carry after first contact ranked No.4 in the league, behind only Dion Lewis, LeGarrette Blount and Derrick Henry. He's got some lower body drive and pop in his pads.
With Miami also trading away wide receiver Jarvis Landry this offseason, there is now a major void in the short passing game in Adam Gase's offense. And that's where Drake can cash in. He caught at least three passes in five of his past six games and totaled 17 receptions in that final five-week run. If those receiving numbers start to climb, watch out. Then we are talking about a versatile weapon in an offense that loves to throw the quick game. And Drake has shown he can flex outside of the formation to go after favorable matchups.
One more positive here? Quarterback Ryan Tannehill is back in the mix, and he needs the run game to facilitate passing opportunities. From 2015-16, Tannehill averaged 7.09 yards per pass attempt on non-play action throws. But that number climbed to 8.71 yards per pass attempt when using play-action, a spike of 22.8 percent. That should lead to more touches for Drake on the ground with a skill set that really flashed at the end of '17.
Lower the fantasy floor in '18?
I mentioned those two games against Denver and New England from the jump because I can't ignore what I saw on the film. It's legit stuff. But those are also the only two games in Drake's NFL career where he carried the ball at least 17 times. So, we are trying to project a major uptick in volume for a guy who has yet to prove that he can handle a consistent, heavy workload.
Remember the yards after first contact? Impressive number. And I do see the power in Drake's game. However, he had four runs last season where he registered 20-plus post-contact yards, which boosted his overall average.
While we can't deny Drake's ability to generate big plays in the Miami offense, his yards per carry after first contact drops by 28.9 percent if you take away those four carries. And it's tough to replicate that type of big-play production on the ground. In fact, over the past nine seasons, there have been only two instances in which a player had more than four games with a carry gaining 20-plus yards after first contact: Adrian Peterson (2012) and Arian Foster (2014).
Something else to chew on here: Is Drake the closer you need in the lineup? I'm talking about a back who can grind in the fourth quarter and rack up late-game production. In 2017, from quarters one to three, Drake ranked No. 3 in the NFL with 5.21 yards per carry and No. 1 overall in yards after first contact at 2.71.
But, when we get to the fourth quarter? Man, those numbers take a dive with Drake. That's where he averaged fell to 3.41 yards per carry (No. 28 in the NFL) and just 1.63 yards after first contact (No. 30).
That brings Frank Gore into the discussion for me. Yes, the veteran's arrival doesn't necessarily signal a true committee approach with the Dolphins' backfield, but Gore has five-plus carries in 134 straight games. Ridiculous. And he can still get small in the hole. Gore will have a role in Gase's offense, and that could mean fourth quarter touches to close things, out or even possibly stealing some goal-line carries from Drake as well. Miami also added rookie Kalen Ballage out of Arizona State in the fourth round. He's a big back with a downhill burst. Ballage showcased some receiving skills at the Senior Bowl workouts, too. Size with some quicks there.
Real concerns here? I think managers have to take a long look at these numbers with Drake running behind a below-average Miami offensive line, plus a schedule that features the NFC North this year. Drake will face three teams -- Minnesota, Chicago and Green Bay -- that are ranked as top-10 defenses in limiting opposing rushing yards per carry after first contact. And, for me, that's going to drop Drake's fantasy floor a bit.
Where should fantasy managers target Drake?
The film on Drake at the end of the season is nice, and I do envision a higher ceiling for the Miami running back in PPR formats. You can go check out the Monday night win over New England to get a feel for Drake's ability as a receiver. Underneath throws and a deep ball shot, too. But I'm not going to ignore the numbers here when it comes to projecting his floor, or the Dolphins decision to add two more ball carriers this offseason.
In our first mock draft of the summer, a 10-team PPR, Drake came off the board at No. 40 overall, the last pick of the fourth round. This put Drake at RB17 behind Jerick McKinnon, Devonta Freeman, Joe Mixon and Henry. For me, I'm going to target Redskins' rookie Derrius Guice or the Ravens' Alex Collins in that range. More volume with higher fantasy floors, which then pushes Drake down to RB20 in my ranks.
However, after watching that tape here, I can see why managers would value the upside that Drake brings to the lineup. Yes, there is some risk that Drake fails to emerge as a legit No.1 back in Miami. His ability to tote the rock consistently is still unproven, but with the versatility to produce numbers in Gase's offense, Drake should be targeted as a mid-to-low tier RB2.