When it comes to grading fantasy football prospects, it's a good idea to remember that not all schedules are created equal. A big difference in schedule strength can make all the difference between two players whose value might otherwise be considered identical on draft day.
To help discern these differences in schedule strength, I created a matchup points grading system that is largely based on tape-based analysis of individual defensive players. Each defensive player matchup is then graded on a color-coded system in which a red grade is a highly unfavorable matchup, a yellow grade is a solid matchup and a green grade is a highly favorable matchup. Those grades are then algorithmically weighed and expressed as a number.
The week-by-week version of this system measures these grades on a 0-100 scale, with 100 being the most favorable. However, the grades tend to flatten out a bit more over the course of a season, so the most favorable season-long grades are usually in the 80s and the least favorable grades typically sit in the 60s. Grades are based on a curve for the various player positions, so some positions tend to have larger rating disparities than others.
Now that those preliminaries are out of the way, let's take a look at which fantasy prospects have the most and least favorable schedules heading into the 2018 season.
Highly favorable schedules
Blake Bortles, QB, Jacksonville Jaguars (86)
Marcus Mariota, QB, Tennessee Titans (84)
Dak Prescott, QB, Dallas Cowboys (82)
Andy Dalton, QB, Cincinnati Bengals (82)
The Jaguars face six free safeties with a green rating, including four in the last five weeks of the season, so Bortles could be a great player to stash on the bench to save up for the stretch run. Mariota has similar late-season value with four green-rated free safeties on the slate over the his seven games, but he also starts the season with green-rated free safeties in the first two weeks of the year. Prescott may be more hit-and-miss here, as he does have seven games against teams with at least one green-rated safety, but he also has eight games against teams with at least one red-rated safety. Dalton could have the best late-season upside value here, as three of Cincinnati's games in Weeks 12-16 feature opponents with two green-rated safeties.
David Johnson, RB, Arizona Cardinals (81)
Derrick Henry, RB, Tennessee Titans (81)
Johnson's schedule strength is as much due to a lack of tough matchups as it is having favorable matchups, as Arizona has only two red-rated rush defense matchups -- against Minnesota and Denver in Weeks 6 and 7. Henry is in a similar boat with only two red-rated matchups (Philadelphia in Week 4 and the Jets in Week 13). However, three green-rated matchups between Weeks 5-10 and another green-rated matchup in the Week 16 battle against Washington should make him an upper-tier point scorer from midseason on.
Marqise Lee, WR, Jacksonville Jaguars (82)
Julio Jones, WR, Atlanta Falcons (79)
Kelvin Benjamin, WR, Buffalo Bills (79)
Lee should be able to benefit from the aforementioned late-season collection of green-rated safeties on the Jaguars' schedule, but he will also get plenty of cornerback schedule assistance in that time frame, as he is due to face only one red-rated cornerback in Weeks 10-17. Jones doesn't have the most favorable set of cornerback matchups, as he could see as many as eight red-rated cornerbacks, depending on how often the Falcons opponents utilize the "shadow cornerback" tactic. Atlanta, however, has zero red-rated and five green-rated free safeties on its schedule. That should open things up in the vertical passing game for Jones. Benjamin has only one red-rated cornerback on his schedule from Week 6 through the end of the season.
Delanie Walker, TE, Tennessee Titans (87)
Jack Doyle, TE, Indianapolis Colts (86)
Travis Kelce, TE, Kansas City Chiefs (83)
Strong consistency could be Walker's calling card this year, as he has zero games with a red-rated strong safety matchup. Doyle also has zero red-rated strong safety matchups on his docket and four green-rated strong safety matchups. That's why he could warrant roster status despite having to battle Eric Ebron for targets. Five green-rated strong safety matchups and only one red-rated strong safety matchup should have fantasy managers considering ranking Kelce higher than Rob Gronkowski on draft day.
Highly unfavorable schedules
Russell Wilson, QB, Seattle Seahawks (61)
Matthew Stafford, QB, Detroit Lions (64)
Aaron Rodgers, QB, Green Bay Packers (65)
Jimmy Garoppolo, QB, San Francisco 49ers (67)
The Seahawks are said to be headed back to leaning toward a strong running game this season -- an approach that makes even more sense when noting they have only two games with a green-rated safety and 42 percent of their WR matchups are against red-rated cornerbacks. That combination could put a significant cap on Wilson's fantasy passing production. Stafford's schedule is nearly as tough, as the Lions have only one game against a team with a green-rated safety (Week 7 against Miami) and have at least one red-rated cornerback in all but three of their contests. The Packers have seven games against teams with a red-rated free safety and only two matchups against foes with a green-rated safety, so Rodgers may be challenged to get his vertical passing numbers back to their elite level. There is a lot of hype for Garoppolo headed into this season, yet facing at least one red-rated safety in each of the 49ers first four games could be something that slows his start out of the gate.
Derrius Guice, RB, Washington Redskins (54)
Todd Gurley II, RB, Los Angeles Rams (54)
Lamar Miller, RB, Houston Texans (59)
Melvin Gordon, RB, Los Angeles Chargers (59)
Washington's run blocking is almost certain to be improved this season, but Guice won't get much help from the schedule, as the Redskins have zero green-rated rushing defense matchups and have red-rated battles in three of the last five weeks of the season. For those considering taking Gurley at the top of a draft board, it is worth noting that the Rams face red-rated rush defenses in three of the first six weeks, as well as in Weeks 15 and 16. Miller faces an absolutely brutal stretch run, as the Texans have red-rated rushing defenses in five of their last eight games. Gordon faces a similar predicament in the middle of the season, as the Chargers face four red-rated rush defenses from Weeks 6-12.
Sammy Watkins, WR, Kansas City Chiefs (56)
Stefon Diggs, WR, Minnesota Vikings (56)
Tyreek Hill, WR, Kansas City Chiefs (59)
The Chiefs have what might be the most difficult set of cornerback matchups in the league, as Hill has eight red-rated cornerbacks on his schedule and Watkins has seven red-rated matchups. Diggs may have the most difficult individual cornerback matchup slate, as he is due to face 11 red-rated cornerbacks, including nine in the first 11 games of the season.
Trey Burton, TE, Chicago Bears (63)
Jimmy Graham, TE, Green Bay Packers (65)
Burton is getting a lot of push as a potential high-upside sleeper, yet he has only two green-rated strong safeties on his schedule and the Bears have only three games against opponents with a green-rated free or strong safety. Graham's value will stem a lot from end-zone targets, yet most fantasy managers would feel better about drafting him if Graham weren't stuck facing only two green-rated strong safeties this year.