Matchups are often a driving force behind fantasy football owners' weekly lineup decisions. When choosing between two (or more) similarly talented players, you know the first question that comes to mind: Which one has the best matchup?
Ah, but what, exactly, constitutes a favorable or unfavorable matchup?
That's where the "Matchups Map" comes in. Each week, I'll provide a schedule-independent method to determine strength of positional matchups, using the most recent, relevant data. Check back for updated numbers each week, including matchup highlights at each position -- both favorable and unfavorable -- based upon those statistics. For these purposes, we will use PPR (point per reception) scoring, though I have analyzed this data for both PPR and non-PPR and have found that the rankings would scarcely change (if at all). Therefore, these help in either scoring format.
The maps include two measures: The first, "Rk," is my personal ranking of how favorable/unfavorable I consider that positional matchup; the second, "Adj. FPA," reflects how far above or below a player's average that defense has held opponents at that position. For Week 5, we'll use 2017 data (four weeks are already in the books), but beginning with Week 6, we'll use the most recent five weeks. Keep in mind that as "Adj. FPA" statistics represent only a four-week, smaller-than-usual sample, my personal ranking ("Rk") won't fall quite as in line as it will in future weeks.
Finally, a caveat: Remember that matchups are only one ingredient in my rankings formula. Not every favorable matchup should be exploited; not every unfavorable matchup should be avoided. To get the most complete recipe for whom to start and sit, consult my weekly rankings.
Quarterbacks
Favorable matchup: Deshaun Watson, Houston Texans (CLE). Well, he certainly isn't afraid to take chances throwing downfield, a characteristic he was known for at Clemson. Watson's 11.1 average depth of target is tops in the league, and 27 percent of his pass attempts have traveled at least 15 yards downfield, the third-highest rate behind only that of Jameis Winston (31 percent) and Marcus Mariota (28). Watson now battles a Cleveland Browns defense that has afforded opponents a league-high 15 touchdowns on throws of 15 or more yards downfield since the beginning of last season. The Browns also have had the good fortune of scarcely facing an aggressive passer such as this through five weeks: Ben Roethlisberger attempted just five such throws against them in Week 1, and Jacoby Brissett, the only one of the other four with even close to the league's average depth of target, had a season-low 24 pass attempts and five of 15-plus yards in Week 3. This is a blitz-happy defense -- the Browns have done so on 42 percent of drop-backs this year, highest in the league -- that plays directly to Watson's strengths, and oh, it's also the one that has afforded the fourth-most fantasy points to the position (99.86), despite facing one of the easiest schedules.
Unfavorable matchup: Alex Smith, Kansas City Chiefs (PIT). Give credit to Smith where it's due, as he has been amazingly accurate so far, his 76.6 completion percentage is the highest through five games in NFL history, and his 11 touchdowns without an interception are tied for the record through five. Smith also happened to play a good portion of his schedule at opportune times: He faced the Philadelphia Eagles in their first full game without top cornerback Ronald Darby in Week 2 and the Los Angeles Chargers sans Jason Verrett in Week 3, and he played 47 of his 72 snaps (during which time he had his only passing score) against the Washington Redskins after Josh Norman's injury in Week 4 and 59 of his 73 snaps (during which he had all three of his passing touchdowns) against the Texans after J.J. Watt's injury in Week 5. Smith is due for regression, and the Pittsburgh Steelers have been one of the few defenses that have fared well against both wide receivers and tight ends, plus they enter Week 6 at one of the healthier points of their season. Smith's upside here is capped.
Running backs
Favorable matchup: James White, New England Patriots (@NYJ). I expect the running backs in the Los Angeles Rams-Jacksonville Jaguars contest to be the fantasy powerhouses in Week 6, but they're both likely to be universally started, so White gets the nod for his matchup instead. I picked on the Jets' run defense last week but had the wrong guy because what I've missed previously about them is their difficulty in containing pass-catching running backs. Only the Patriots (86.2) and San Francisco 49ers (77.0) have afforded more fantasy points receiving to the position than the Jets (71.8), with Fournette (15.9 receiving fantasy points in Week 4) enjoying an uncharacteristically great game in that regard and Duke Johnson Jr. (15.3 in Week 5) also putting up a season-best receiving point total. White has played a significantly greater percentage of the Patriots' offensive snaps (49.3 percent) than Dion Lewis (17.4), and he had 13.6 fantasy points the last time these teams squared off in 2016 Week 16.
Unfavorable matchup: Carlos Hyde, 49ers (@WSH). In the past two weeks, Matt Breida's snap count has snuck up on Hyde's, to the point that the rookie actually played more (34-32) and had more carries (10-8) in Week 5, without any clear indication that Hyde's hip injury contributed to the decision. Hyde's 2.9 yards-per-carry average in Weeks 3 and 5 combined facing great matchups doesn't bode well for his future prospects, and he's an especially poor choice when splitting time in a road game facing a matchup such as this. The Redskins have allowed only 3.9 yards per carry and only one run of 20-plus yards through four games, and they made the Eagles (Week 1) and Oakland Raiders (Week 3) running backs look bad in home games already this season.
Wide receivers
Favorable matchup: Larry Fitzgerald, Arizona Cardinals (TB). No team has been more pass-heavy than the Cardinals, who lead the league in total pass attempts (227) as well as percentage of passing plays (71 percent), and no defense has faced a greater amount of pass plays per game than the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (41.8). The Bucs have also surrendered an NFL-leading 48.3 fantasy points per game to opposing wide receivers. But beyond this being a volume play, something that would also favor other Cardinals wide receivers such as Jaron Brown and John Brown, Fitzgerald stands out because of his typical role working out of the slot, which has been a particular weakness for this defense: The Buccaneers have surrendered 26.0 fantasy points per game to opposing receivers working out of the slot (and only on their snaps played there), second-most in the league behind the Patriots (27.1).
Unfavorable matchup: Mike Evans, Buccaneers (@ARI). I hate this matchup, but not by enough that I can justify benching him in traditional fantasy leagues. One thing you'll notice in the chart below is that the Cardinals grade my second-worst overall wide receiver matchup and third-worst in terms of Adjusted Fantasy Points Allowed, but if you pull their splits against opposing No. 1 wideouts, they suddenly become the third-best in terms of Adjusted FPA (minus-3.66), mainly because of how good cornerback Patrick Peterson has been this season. Peterson held Dez Bryant, T.Y. Hilton and Alshon Jeffery in single-digits in past meetings. The reason I can't sit Evans, though, is that he's going to get his targets: He's one of five players to have recorded at least five targets in every game since the beginning of last season (also Odell Beckham Jr., Antonio Brown, Hilton and Demaryius Thomas), and Evans' 12 instances of double-digit targets in that time frame are second behind only Brown's 14. If you have Evans, this is a week to load up your lineup with high-upside options to make up the difference, and because Peterson more than likely will shadow Evans on Sunday, there's also an excellent chance that DeSean Jackson is the Buccaneers wideout due the bigger fantasy day.
Tight ends
Favorable matchup: Zach Miller, Chicago Bears (@BAL). He was one of the Bears' brighter spots on Monday Night Football in Week 5, gobbling up a team-high seven of Mitchell Trubisky's 25 targets on his way to a team-best 12.9 fantasy points. Miller was Trubisky's preferred target when he threw deep, as the intended receiver on two of the rookie's four throws that traveled at least 15 yards downfield, with Miller's lone catch resulting in a 20-yard touchdown. If that's a sign of chemistry between the two, that's good news for the veteran, who by the way had the 10th-most targets (99) and ninth-most red zone targets (13) during his 17-game healthy, productive stretch spanning from 2015 Week 10 through 2016 Week 11. Miller's matchup is also a good one against a Baltimore Ravens defense that is stingy against opposing wide receivers but allowed a combined 19.8 fantasy points to Seth DeValve and David Njoku in Week 2 and 28.2 points to Marcedes Lewis in Week 3.
Unfavorable matchup: Kyle Rudolph, Minnesota Vikings (GB). His target share has declined sharply, from 22.3 percent last season to 9.2 percent this, and only this past Monday night did he manage at least a 20 percent share in a game this season (28.1). It was the first time that Case Keenum targeted Rudolph more than six times in a game, and many of them were throws either behind, at or just in front of the line of scrimmage. There's no indication yet that Rudolph's role this season is close to as large as it was in 2016, and the opposing Green Bay Packers have been one of the stingiest defenses against tight ends, limiting them to 1.197 fantasy points per target, second-lowest in the league. They've faced some good ones, too: Jimmy Graham (3.8 fantasy points, Week 1), Austin Hooper (2.7, Week 2) and Jason Witten (12.1, Week 5).