It's one of the questions I get asked most often during the offseason.
"Who is this year's ...
It's not a simple question to answer, because no two scenarios are exactly alike. But there are obviously comparable players in similar situations. The people want comparisons, so comparisons I shall deliver.
The process here was simple: I jotted down each of 2016's top breakout players and came up with a short list of players who fit a similar pedigree as they enter 2017. Below is analysis of each player who best fits the bill, as well as the other players who landed on the short list.
It's important to note that this is not my way of projecting that these players will break out this season. Again, it's simply the players who are in similar situations to those players who exploded onto the fantasy scene last year.
This year's Dak Prescott: Mitchell Trubisky
Prescott benefited from a terrific supporting cast -- and played well in his own right -- en route to finishing as fantasy's No. 6 quarterback. The roster around Trubisky in Chicago isn't quite as good, but there are still plenty of similarities. Trubisky has looked sharp during the preseason, his offensive line is solid, he'll be working in a run-heavy scheme led by young star Jordan Howard and there's enough defensive talent here to keep the offense on the field. Whereas Prescott saw the field early as a product of Tony Romo's back injury, Trubisky will need to out-perform projected Week 1 starter Mike Glennon. That's far from a lock, but it's a good bet that Trubisky will be under center fairly quickly this season. If he's the real deal, fringe QB1 production is not out of the question.
I thought about Deshaun Watson here, but he's less likely to play early and Houston's offensive line and running game are problem areas.
Other candidates: Watson, Patrick Mahomes II, DeShone Kizer
This year's Ezekiel Elliott: Leonard Fournette
Elliott, the fourth overall pick in the 2016 draft, racked up 354 touches as the Cowboys' workhorse and was fantasy's No. 2 running back. Fournette, the fourth overall pick in this year's draft, is the obvious comparable. The Jaguars' offensive line isn't nearly as dominant as the one Elliott ran behind, but it's a competent unit and the team is looking to shorten games by leaning on its running game and stacked defense. Elliott led the NFL with 322 carries, but was limited to 32 receptions and it's very possible Fournette posts numbers that are almost identical to those in 2017. Especially considering the heavy usage of early-round rookie backs over the past decade, Fournette should be viewed as a back-end RB1.
Other candidates: Dalvin Cook, Joe Mixon
This year's LeGarrette Blount: Adrian Peterson
Despite working in a committee, Blount exploded for a league-high 18 rushing touchdowns and finished ninth in fantasy points at running back last season. Peterson certainly has a more impressive resume than Blount did entering last season, but he's situated similarly in New Orleans this season. Mark Ingram is the team's incumbent lead back and will be heavily involved on all three downs. Third-round rookie Alvin Kamara is expected to play a passing-down role similar to the one Travaris Cadet handled last year. That leaves Peterson as a strong bet to handle a lot of early-down and short-yardage/goal-line work. That should allow plenty of scoring opportunities on a team that has ranked no lower than ninth in the league in touchdowns each of the past 11 years. Barring an Ingram injury, Peterson is unlikely to match Blount's 299 carries from last season, but double-digit touchdowns is not out of the question.
Other candidates: Marshawn Lynch, Mike Gillislee
This year's Jordan Howard: D'Onta Foreman
Howard was a mid-round draft pick who quickly disposed of a substandard veteran back (Jeremy Langford) and ran away with a feature back gig in a run-heavy scheme. Lamar Miller is positioned as Houston's lead back, but he'll take on a reduced role after struggling with efficiency in a workhorse capacity last season. Miller averaged 1.3 yards after contact, which ranked 67th out of 69 backs with 50-plus carries. Per Pro Football Focus, Miller forced only 23 missed tackles on 268 carries (that rate ranked 17th among 19 backs with 200-plus carries) and posted the league's third-worst "elusive" rating. Enter Foreman who, like Howard, is a big back (6-foot, 233 pounds) entering the league at age 21 and who will contribute primarily as rusher (323 carries, 2,028 yards at Texas last season) and not offer a ton as a receiver (seven receptions). Foreman lost yards on 8.7 percent of his carries last season, which was tops among all backs who were drafted. Similar to Howard, Foreman figures to open the season with a minimal role, but it shouldn't take long for him to begin eating into Miller's snaps.
Other candidates: Chris Carson, Samaje Perine, Wayne Gallman
This year's Jay Ajayi: Paul Perkins
Ajayi fits the bill of a mid-round draft pick and underwhelming rookie turned second-year breakout at running back. Perkins was scooped up by the Giants in the fifth round of the 2016 draft. He was limited to 112 carries and was only marginally more effective than since-released veteran Rashad Jennings. Perkins averaged 1.6 yards after contact and forced only 10 missed tackles on running plays. He averaged a healthy 10.8 yards per reception, but did drop two of his 22 targets. Despite his woes last season, Perkins is currently positioned atop the Giants' depth chart, which very well could allow him 250-plus touches in 2017. At the very minimum, he'll be supplied with an opportunity to break out, which gives him mid-round value in fantasy.
Other candidates: C.J. Prosise, Wendell Smallwood
By the way, this is a good time to answer another question I'm asked often: "Who is this year's Jeremy Langford?" Entering last season, Langford was about as close to a lock to bust as I've ever seen and, though that was likely a once-in-a-decade scenario, there are players with warning signs: poor efficiency in terms of elusiveness and forcing missed tackles. Perkins is one of those players, though he was two years younger than Langford was during his poor rookie year, which gives me less pause about projecting a bounceback. Devontae Booker, on the other hand, is now 25 years old and struggled badly last season. He is probably the player in this year's sophomore class who still is in the fantasy discussion but the least likely to succeed.
This year's Michael Thomas: Corey Davis
Thomas was an early-round rookie wide receiver who exploded into fantasy stardom in the Saints' high-scoring offense. Granted, Thomas was a second-round pick and Davis was selected fifth overall, but because of the depth at wide receiver for Tennessee, Davis can be had late in drafts. Interestingly, Thomas' ESPN average draft position was 148.8 overall last year (WR49) and Davis currently sits at 150.0 (WR50). Yes, there are some differences between the two scenarios: The Saints called pass more often than the Titans will this season, though it's fair to expect more throwing from a team with a much-improved group of wideouts. The Saints ranked second in offensive touchdowns per game (3.4) and the Titans ranked ninth (2.8) last season. Davis will need to work past the likes of Delanie Walker, Eric Decker and Rishard Matthews on the target priority list, but the cream tends to rise pretty quickly, which was the case when Thomas moved past Willie Snead, Coby Fleener and eventually Brandin Cooks. Davis is expected to work as Tennessee's primary split end once healthy, making him well worth a mid-to-late-round pick.
Other candidate: JuJu Smith-Schuster
This year's Davante Adams: DeVante Parker
Following an underwhelming first two seasons in the NFL, third-year wide receiver Adams scored 12 touchdowns and finished ninth at the position in fantasy points. The Packers' offense (NFL-high 69 percent pass rate, 3.3 touchdowns per game -- third-highest) provided Adams with an easier platform than Parker will enjoy (Miami ranked last in offensive plays at 57.3 per game and posted the fourth-lowest pass rate at 58 percent last season), but there's still plenty of upside here. Jay Cutler peppered Alshon Jeffery and Brandon Marshall with targets near the goal line during his time in Chicago and he's already called Parker a "faster Alshon." Parker is 6-foot-3, entering his third season at age 24 and a sneaky bet to lead Miami in receiving yards, touchdowns and possibly even targets.
Other candidate: Devin Funchess
This year's Tyreek Hill: Curtis Samuel
Hill showed his explosiveness and versatility by registering three rushing, six receiving and three return touchdowns as a rookie. Samuel enters the league with a bit more pedigree (he was a second-round pick, whereas Hill went in the fifth) and he figures to play a similar role in an offense that should score plenty of points, especially thanks to a light schedule. At Ohio State last season, Samuel scored on seven of 74 receptions, eight of 97 carries and handled six punt returns. He ran a 4.31 40-yard dash at the combine. The explosive playmaker spent the preseason fighting a hamstring injury, but it shouldn't take him long to nail down slot duties and a handful of carries once he's back in the mix. Samuel is going undrafted in most fantasy leagues, but he's a nice end-of-roster flier in deeper formats.
Other candidates: Carlos Henderson, John Ross
This year's Terrelle Pryor Sr.: Breshad Perriman
An elite athlete and high-ceiling player, Pryor finally put it all together en route to a top-20 fantasy season in 2016. Granted, Perriman is not changing positions like Pryor, but nonetheless he's a player who has yet to convert his extremely high upside, measurables and athleticism into a breakout season. Perriman, a first-round pick in 2015, stands 6-foot-2 and sports 4.24 wheels. He missed his entire rookie season and posted 33 receptions for 499 yards and three touchdowns on 66 targets in a situational role last season. Perriman showed flashes, but a 50 percent catch rate and league-worst 9.1 percent drop rate aren't going to cut it. Only 23 years old and working in an offense that will be without Steve Smith Sr., Dennis Pitta, Crockett Gillmore and Kenneth Dixon, Perriman will have an opportunity for a big step forward in 2017, even with Jeremy Maclin and Mike Wallace in the mix.
Other candidates: Kevin White, Chris Conley
This year's Adam Thielen: Chester Rogers
Following a nondescript start to his career, former undrafted free agent Thielen came out of nowhere to finish as fantasy's No. 30 scoring wide receiver last year. Rogers, a 2016 undrafted free agent, hasn't been around quite as long as Thielen was, but actually has a quicker path to snaps than Thielen did last year. T.Y. Hilton and Donte Moncrief are the Colts' top two wideouts, but Rogers has a leg up on Kamar Aiken and Phillip Dorsett for No. 3 duties. Rogers caught 19 passes for 276 yards in a limited role last season. He's versatile, has decent wheels and is positioned to play a big role in an offense that had at least three wide receivers on the field on 71 percent of its pass plays in 2016. The 23-year-old is a terrific late-round target in deep leagues and dynasty formats, but he will be less appealing in the short term if Andrew Luck misses time.
Other candidates: Ricardo Louis, Charone Peake
This year's Hunter Henry: O.J. Howard
Henry scored eight touchdowns as a rookie, but worked as a situational tight end behind a pass-catching specialist (Antonio Gates) and barely cracked the top 20 in fantasy points. It wouldn't surprise me one bit if we're describing Howard's rookie season the same way one year from now. Howard has a ton of pedigree following a terrific career at Alabama and was picked 19th overall in April's draft. The problem is that, regardless of the level of pedigree and hype, rookie tight ends almost never make a fantasy impact. Howard will need to compete for targets with receiving specialist Cameron Brate, similar to how Henry did his best to steal looks from future Hall of Famer Antonio Gates in San Diego last season. Howard is a strong bet to start out as the team's primary blocking tight end and to file in behind Mike Evans, DeSean Jackson and Brate on the target priority list. Of course, at 6-foot-6, 251 pounds, Howard is going to be on the field near the goal line, which will open the door for a high touchdown rate. Howard is no more than a fringe TE2, but has some added value in non-PPR leagues.
Other candidates: Evan Engram, David Njoku