It's easy to get excited about rookies. We watch them dominate during their collegiate tenures. We watch, read and listen to analysis of their tape and combine workouts throughout the spring. And then it's all capped off during the excitement of draft weekend.
Especially for the players who hear their names called on Day 1 of the draft, it's hard not to expect immediate fantasy contributions from the next wave of NFL stars. However, history shows that position matters. Rookie-season optimism is reasonable for some, but not for others.
For the purpose of this article, I'll be looking at the rookie-season usage and performance of players selected in the first round during the 10 drafts spanning 2007-2016.
Running back
2017 first-round selections: Leonard Fournette (fourth), Christian McCaffrey (eighth)
I'm kicking this piece off with running back because the usage and numbers produced by first-rounders over the past decade are almost hard to believe.
The average stat line of the 20 backs who fit the bill is 176.7 carries for 774.8 yards and 6.5 touchdowns, and 23.9 receptions for 201.6 yards and 0.6 touchdowns on 31 targets. That works out to 163.5 PPR fantasy points, which would've ranked 24th at the position last year. And, to be clear, this comprises all 20 first-round backs, including Felix Jones and Rashard Mendenhall, who totaled just 53 touches over a combined 10 games.
Of course, Fournette and McCaffrey join Trent Richardson, Ezekiel Elliott, Darren McFadden and Adrian Peterson as the only backs selected in the top eight since 2007. Richardson, Elliott and Peterson combined to average 310 touches, and each finished their respective rookie seasons as a top-seven fantasy back. That is big-time usage and production. McFadden appeared in 13 games and was a situational back in Oakland.
Here's where this really gets interesting. If we cut out the four backs who failed to appear in at least 12 games as a rookie (Jones, Mendenhall, Donald Brown, Mark Ingram), we're left with a sample of 16. That group averaged a hefty 233.5 touches, 1,137.9 yards and 8.1 touchdowns. Seven of the backs reached double-digit touchdowns and 11 scored at least seven times. Thirteen of the 16 racked up at least 820 yards from scrimmage and nine were top-20 fantasy backs.
Needless to say, this suggests Fournette and McCaffrey are positioned for massive roles as rookies. Fournette will open the season as Jacksonville's lead back and McCaffrey shouldn't have trouble reaching 200 touches, even with Jonathan Stewart joining him in Carolina's backfield.
Tight end
2017 first-round selections: O.J. Howard (19th), Evan Engram (23rd), David Njoku (29th)
Three tight ends were selected in the first round of this year's draft, which is notable, considering that only six were picked in the first round during the previous nine years. The last time two were selected in Round 1 was 2006, and the last time three were picked was 2002.
This may be a sign that this class stands out as a possible exception, but even the rookie tight ends with the best pedigree didn't supply much fantasy relevance. In fact, the six tight ends selected in the first round over the past decade averaged 14.0 games played, 64.0 targets, 38.8 receptions, 406.0 yards and 2.3 touchdowns. That's 93.4 fantasy points and would've ranked 28th at the position in 2016.
Jermaine Gresham's 82 targets and four touchdowns in 15 games back in 2010 were most among a first-round tight end during the span. Dustin Keller recorded the most receiving yards in the group with 535 in 2008. If we include all rookie tight ends from 2007-16, only four eclipsed five touchdowns, one eclipsed 600 receiving yards and three eclipsed 50 receptions.
Because this is such a unique rookie class, I dug even deeper into the "why" behind the lack of production by the previous first-round picks. Gresham was the only one who played a significant role immediately, but he was hurt and saw fewer targets in the second half of the season. Greg Olsen missed Weeks 1-2 with an injury, returned to a part-time role for a few weeks and took on a pretty significant role by Week 5. Keller averaged 2.5 targets per game during Weeks 1-7 and jumped to 6.3 per game the rest of the way. Brandon Pettigrew, Tyler Eifert and Eric Ebron were part-time players with little fantasy value throughout their rookie seasons. In fact, Ebron -- the most-recent tight end selected in the first round and the only one selected earlier than 20th overall (he went 10th) -- eclipsed five targets in a game only twice as a rookie, and both came after Week 11.
The obvious counter to the underwhelming rookie production is the players' competition for snaps and targets. I looked at that, as well. Gresham (82 targets) had to fend off Reggie Kelly, Chase Coffman and Ben Coates (combined 19 targets). Keller (78) competed with Chris Baker and Bubba Franks (41). Pettigrew (53) fell short of Will Heller, Casey Fitzsimmons and Dan Gronkowski (78). Olsen (64) worked with Desmond Clark and John Gilmore (71). Eifert (59) competed with Gresham, Orson Charles and Alex Smith (72). Ebron (48) was busier than the combination of Pettigrew, Joe Fauria, Kellen Davis and Jordan Thompson (29).
The point here being that the competition was not overly impressive, but the raw rookies still struggled to quickly earn a significant offensive role that allowed fantasy production.
History does not paint a pretty picture for the 2017 prospects of this year's rookie class. Howard will need to fend off Cameron Brate, who posted a 57-660-8 line, while excelling as a pass-catcher last season. Njoku didn't turn 21 until July and has fringe wide receiver Seth DeValve on his heels in an offense unlikely to score much. With the likes of Rhett Ellison, Matt LaCosse and Will Tye in his way, Engram is best-positioned for big-time snaps this year, but as we learned earlier, pedestrian veterans have soaked up tons of work ahead of super-talented but inexperienced rookies. Howard, Engram and Njoku should be monitored and could potentially make for good midseason additions, but this study suggests that they are barely worth considering on draft day in 16-round fantasy leagues.
Wide receiver
2017 first-round selections: Corey Davis (fifth), Mike Williams (seventh), John Ross (ninth)
Wide receiver easily offers our largest sample. From 2007-2016, 39 wideouts were selected in the first round. Seventeen of the wide receivers finished their respective rookie campaigns as a top-50 scorer at the position. Twelve finished in the top 35, four in the top 20 and only one in the top 10 (Odell Beckham Jr.'s seventh-place finish in 2014).
Speaking of 2014, the decade's top-three fantasy performances from a wide receiver came that year. Beckham, Mike Evans (13th) and Kelvin Benjamin (17th) achieved the feat. The 33 receivers who appeared in at least 10 games as rookies averaged a 15 percent target share, which bumps up to a very respectable 17 percent when extrapolated over 16 games.
Davis, Williams and Ross were each selected in the top 10, so we can narrow our sample down even further. Twelve wide receivers were picked in the top 10 during this 10-year span. Only Kevin White failed to appear in at least 11 games. The other 11 receivers averaged 96.3 targets, 51.1 receptions, 758.1 yards and 5.2 touchdowns. Interestingly enough, Evans and Michael Crabtree were the only two who failed to record at least two carries, which suggests some intent by the play-callers to get the ball in the hands of their top draft pick. The average target share for the 11 wideouts was a very respectable 18 percent, including 20 percent if extrapolated over 16 games.
Davis joins Calvin Johnson, A.J. Green, Amari Cooper, Sammy Watkins and Justin Blackmon as the only wide receivers picked in the top five since 2007. Only Johnson failed to reach a 22 percent target share as a rookie. The other four receivers averaged 124.8 targets, 66.5 receptions, 996.5 yards and 6.0 touchdowns. That stat line works out to 202.2 fantasy points and would've ranked 24th at the position last year.
Wide receivers selected in the first round, and especially those picked in the top five, have tended to play a significant and fantasy-relevant role as rookies. History suggests that the likes of Eric Decker and Rishard Matthews won't block Davis from a generous target share in Tennessee, which further solidifies the Western Michigan product as a flex target.
Williams and Ross both have health concerns and are facing a lot of competition for snaps, so it's very possible they end up with rookie-season stat lines similar to former top-10 picks Ted Ginn Jr. (68-34-420-2) and Crabtree (83-48-625-2). Both Williams and Ross should be viewed as late-round upside fliers.
Quarterback
2017 first-round selections: Mitchell Trubisky (second), Patrick Mahomes II (10th), Deshaun Watson (12th)
Twenty-six quarterbacks were picked in the first round during the 10 drafts that preceded 2017, seven of which were selected first overall and half of which were top-five picks. Each of the 26 quarterbacks appeared in at least one game, 20 (or 77 percent) eclipsed 230 attempts.
Trubisky, Mahomes and Watson were all top-12 picks. If we look at the sample from the past decade, 11 of the 17 rookie passers were on the field for at least 80 percent of his team's pass plays. The exceptions were JaMarcus Russell (2007), Matthew Stafford (2009), Jake Locker (2011), Christian Ponder (2011), Marcus Mariota (2015) and Jared Goff (2016). Stafford and Mariota started Week 1, but missed time with injury. Ponder was under center by Week 6, whereas Russell, Locker and Goff held the clipboard until late in the season. Goff is the only quarterback selected in the top 12 over the past five years who was not the starter before Week 3 of his rookie season.
Only three of the top-12 quarterbacks eclipsed 4,000 passing yards as rookies (Andrew Luck, Cam Newton, Jameis Winston). Five managed 20-plus total touchdowns (Luck, Newton, Winston, Robert Griffin III and Mariota). Of the 26 first-round quarterbacks, only Newton, Griffin and Luck posted a top-10 fantasy season as a rookie. Interestingly, all three quarterbacks required at least five rushing touchdowns in order to pull off the feat.
The data shows that this year's crop of first-round rookies is a near lock to see the field and, on average, two can be expected to play significant roles. Considering that Mahomes' situation as veteran Alex Smith's backup on a contending team, he's the most likely of the three to play a minimal role this year. Watson, meanwhile, figures to see the field early and often with only Tom Savage ahead of him on the depth chart. Trubisky may start behind Mike Glennon, but history suggests he won't last long as the clipboard holder. The numbers show that none of these rookies are likely to be starting-caliber fantasy options, though Watson's rushing ability (629 yards and nine touchdowns at Clemson last year) and relatively simple path to a starter's gig gives him a shot to follow in the footsteps of Griffin and Newton.