After playing in only two games in 2016 because of a foot injury, Detroit Lions running back Ameer Abdullah is fully healthy heading into the new NFL season. With the smooth footwork to find daylight in the running game and receiving skills to produce out of the backfield, is Abdullah now primed for a breakout season?
Let's take a look at some tape on Abdullah and discuss his upside in PPR leagues. With the Lions making upgrades along the offensive line and Abdullah's jump in numbers under offensive coordinator Jim Bob Cooter, fantasy owners can get excellent value here on draft day.
Abdullah's fit in the Lions' running scheme
Before the Lions handed Cooter the offensive call sheet in Week 8 of 2015, Abdullah's rookie season, the running back averaged just 3.58 yards per carry. However, after the Lions made the switch to Cooter that year -- and including the two games he played in 2016 -- Abdullah's 4.81 yards per carry ranks ninth among running backs with at least 95 carries.
With 4.6 speed, Abdullah isn't a consistent home run threat with the ball in his hands (career long of 36 yards). And at 5-foot-9, 203 pounds, owners shouldn't expect Abdullah to run straight through linebackers on contact. That's not his game.
Instead, the focus here should be on Abdullah's lateral agility, vision and acceleration through the hole that flashes on the tape. And once he gets to that second level, Abdullah can flat-out shake cats in the open field.
This is a zone run out of the shotgun with Abdullah bending the ball back. That strong safety rolling down to contain the edge? He has no chance thanks to a filthy cut from Abdullah before he gets past the free safety to tack on another 10-15 yards.
That run put Abdullah on the shelf with a foot injury, but I like the example because it reminds us of the quick feet and body control he has to account for the unblocked defender. Have to make someone miss, right? And Abdullah can also work the ball outside on edge runs (5.47 yards per carry on outside runs since Week 8 in 2015).
That's an ideal fit for a running game in Detroit that should be improved after the Lions upgraded the offensive line with veteran right tackle Bobby Wagner and offensive guard T.J. Lang. And even though starting left tackle Taylor Decker is out indefinitely after shoulder surgery, the trade to land former first-round pick Greg Robinson looks to be a good move on paper based on the scheme.
Now, I do have concerns about Abdullah's scoring production (only two career rushing touchdowns) and he did put the ball on the ground five times during his rookie season. Ball security has to improve there. Plus, the Lions could hand some carries to Zach Zenner or Dwayne Washington based on game situation.
However, with the majority of Theo Riddick's production coming in the passing game, I see Abdullah as the No.1 back in Detroit with a skill set that fits the scheme behind an upgraded (and much tougher) offensive line that should move people off the ball.
PPR upside
In 2016, Lions quarterback Matthew Stafford threw 113 passes to running backs. That ranked fifth in NFL behind Drew Brees, Joe Flacco, Carson Palmer and Derek Carr -- and it fits with the scheme under Cooter. The design here is for Stafford to get the ball out quickly. Think West Coast passing and yards after the catch in the short-to-intermediate route tree.
With the Lions, we all know that Riddick is the top receiving threat out of the backfield. He's a clean route runner who understands how to create leverage versus defenders. Last season, Riddick caught 53 passes for 371 yards and five touchdowns. However, given that Riddick is coming off double wrist surgery, could Abdullah be in a position to see an increased role as a receiver?
Under Cooter, Abdullah has only 17 receptions for 127 yards (7.47 yards per reception) and a score. And fantasy players shouldn't plan on Abdullah cutting into the majority of Riddick's targets. But when I look closer at the tape, the skill set is there for Abdullah to become a more consistent option for Stafford in the passing game.
Along with the screen game and the checkdowns that equal free money in fantasy, the Lions started to show how they could scheme to get Abdullah the ball through the air last season in the Week 1 matchup versus the Indianapolis Colts. Think of scripted swing routes and Abdullah aligned removed from the backfield (see example below).
This is a classic pick route to expose a matchup with a linebacker covering Abdullah. The Lions release the inside receiver up the field (pick) and force the linebacker to overplay Abdullah on a pivot route (release inside and break back to the flat). With the linebacker getting caught up in the wash and Abdullah working back outside, this is an easy score for Detroit.
Abdullah still has plenty of value in standard scoring leagues. However, if I'm a PPR player, I see some upside with Abdullah in the lineup: screens, swings and the occasional matchup created within the game plan. Add in some checkdowns and now Abdullah is producing more for owners in total numbers. The talent is there to impact the passing game in Detroit.
Value on draft day
Based on the composite PPR rankings from our ESPN staff, Abdullah checks in as our RB30 as of this writing. And I can see that after he played in only two games last season along with his limited scoring numbers. Hey, it's natural for fantasy players to have some concerns here about his projections this season and his ability to stay on the field.
But I also go back to his fit within the Lions' offense under Cooter and his role as the No.1 ball carrier this season behind that upgraded offensive line. Just carve out some daylight and let him go to work. Abdullah has the skill set to generate solid numbers on the ground.
Plus, with PPR upside that I'm seeing on the tape, you can get value on draft day by targeting Abdullah as a midround pick. He's an RB2 for me heading into 2017 and I expect the third-year back to have a breakout season in Detroit.