Strength of schedule is one of the biggest variables in fantasy football, but it's one that is utilized significantly more often during the regular season than it is on draft day.
That's especially the case when it comes to factoring in the defenders who each wide receiver will see in coverage. Thanks to a new age of player tracking, we have a better handle than ever before on these wide receiver/cornerback matchups and, with a little leg work, can apply them to season-long fantasy leagues (as opposed to just DFS).
Fortunately for you, I've done that leg work, which includes a thorough examination of each team's cornerback depth chart. I ranked each unit by focusing primarily on each team's top three corners (offenses had three wide receivers on the field for 71 percent of pass plays last season). I also factored in the talent and pedigree of each team's additional depth at the position.
Once I had each cornerback unit ranked from 1 through 32, I took a look at each offense's 2016 schedule and determined which wide receiver units will face the toughest cornerback slates this season.
Note that because many of your leagues won't include Week 17 in the fantasy schedule, only Weeks 1-16 are included in this analysis.
It's important not to overreact to any one variable when it comes to player evaluation, but this analysis should help you make better decisions (or at least break some ties) on draft day.
The NFC East is going to be a theme in this piece because two of the league's top cornerback units belong to the Giants and the Redskins. The Eagles are already at the disadvantage of having one of the league's weakest wide receiver groups, but they'll also need to deal with what works out as clearly the toughest slate of cornerback opposition. Philadelphia will face off with Washington (fourth best) and New York (first) twice, and also will have to deal with top-10 secondaries in Minnesota (ninth), Green Bay (fifth) and Cincinnati (sixth).
Jordan Matthews will work on the perimeter more often this season, but he's still the Eagles' primary slot receiver. This means that he's likely to avoid weeks when he's covered by top-end corners. In the above matchups, Matthews figures to see a lot of Kendall Fuller (WAS), Leon Hall (NYG), Captain Munnerlyn (MIN), Micah Hyde (GB) and Darqueze Dennard (CIN). That's a walk in the park compared to what the likes of Nelson Agholor and Dorial Green-Beckham will see on the perimeter. Neither second-year receiver is worth anything more than a late-round flier.
With two exceptions, the Cowboys and Eagles share the same opponents this season. Fortunately for the wide receivers in Dallas, those exceptions make their life quite a bit easier. Whereas the Eagles get Atlanta (12th) and Seattle (14th), the Cowboys will take on Tampa Bay (21st) and San Francisco (26th). Dez Bryant is arguably matchup-proof, but his fantasy owners will much prefer meetings with 33-year-old Brent Grimes and Tramaine Brock to those with Desmond Trufant and Richard Sherman.
Nonetheless, Bryant does still have a rough schedule in this department. He is sure to see plenty of Janoris Jenkins, Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie, Josh Norman, Bashaud Breeland, Adam Jones, Sam Shields, Joe Haden, Xavier Rhodes, Jimmy Smith and Darius Slay. That's far from easy and noteworthy come draft day. Bryant remains a fringe first-round target, but this is enough to confirm A.J. Green as a better fantasy asset. No. 2 receiver Terrance Williams is already an uninspiring late-round flier, but he should be downgraded even further.
Houston revamped its wide receiver position during the offseason, which will prove extremely important as it prepares to face off with a tough slate of cornerbacks. The Texans' schedule is actually on the "easy" side out of the gate, with three of their first four meetings against Chicago (29th), Kansas City (24th) and Tennessee (32nd). However, a look at the full schedule shows that they'll face a unit ranked in the upper half of the league in two-thirds of their games. That includes meetings with New England (eighth), Minnesota (ninth), Denver (third) and Green Bay (fifth).
DeAndre Hopkins' brutal 2016 slate includes showdowns with Marcus Peters, Malcolm Butler/Logan Ryan, Jason McCourty, Rhodes, Vontae Davis (twice), Chris Harris Jr., Slay, Jalen Ramsey (twice), Sean Smith, Jason Verrett, Shields and Jones. Hopkins is good enough and will see enough target volume that he remains a top-end fantasy receiver, but his schedule is certain to limit his fantasy ceiling a bit. Those considering him over Odell Beckham Jr. or Julio Jones (both of whom enjoy a much easier slate) should think twice. This is also troubling news for late-round targets Will Fuller and Jaelen Strong.
Welcome back, Kelvin Benjamin. The defending NFC champions open with one of their toughest matchups of the season, against Denver's Harris, Bradley Roby and, if he's able, Aqib Talib. From there, Carolina faces off with top-end cornerback units in Minnesota, Atlanta (twice), Arizona and Washington. Nine of the Panthers' 15 games will be against cornerback units ranked in the upper half of the league.
The Panthers aren't expected to lean as heavily on Benjamin as they did when nearly one-quarter of the targets went his direction in 2014. That's bad news for Benjamin's fantasy upside but likely good news for the team's offensive efficiency. The third-year receiver is scheduled for meetings with Harris, Rhodes, Trufant (twice), Grimes, Delvin Breaux (twice), Patrick Peterson, Trumaine Johnson, Peters, Smith, Sherman, Verrett and Norman.
Benjamin figures to get the most attention from opposing defenses, but many of Carolina's opponents have depth at the position and/or won't shadow him exclusively. This puts a damper on breakout expectations for Devin Funchess (although he remains a cheap flier in the double-digit rounds) and the prospects of Ted Ginn Jr.
The Bears are fortunate to have a pair of huge, highly skilled perimeter wide receivers, because their 2016 cornerback slate is tough. The Bears face an above-average cornerback unit in nine of their 15 games. This includes meetings with Houston, Detroit (twice), Jacksonville, Green Bay (twice), Minnesota, the New York Giants and Washington.
Kevin White's progress will dictate whether defenses will shadow Alshon Jeffery, which is notable with standout corners Johnathan Joseph, Orlando Scandrick, Slay (twice), Davis, Shields (twice), Grimes, Jenkins, Rodgers-Cromartie and Norman on the docket.
Even worse, Chicago will face off with Detroit, Green Bay and Washington during Weeks 14-16, which works out as the league's toughest schedule during what is the fantasy playoffs for many leagues. You never want to overreact to a matchup, but Jeffery and White will face off with Norman and Breeland during Week 16 this season.
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Wide receiver corps with challenging cornerback matchups who just missed the cut: Minnesota Vikings, Tennessee Titans, Baltimore Ravens, New England Patriots, New Orleans Saints.