Strength of schedule is one of the biggest variables in fantasy football, but it gets considered significantly more often during the regular season than on draft day.
That's especially true when it comes to factoring in the defenders that each wide receiver will see in coverage. Thanks to a new age of player tracking, we have a better handle than ever before on these wide receiver/cornerback matchups and, with a little legwork, we can apply that knowledge to season-long fantasy leagues (as opposed to just DFS).
Fortunately for you, I've done that legwork, which included a thorough examination of each team's cornerback depth chart. I ranked each unit by focusing primarily on each team's top three corners (offenses had three wide receivers on the field for 71 percent of pass plays last season). Also taken into consideration were the talent and pedigree of each team's additional depth at the position.
Once I had each cornerback unit ranked from 1 to 32, I took a look at each offense's 2016 schedule and determined which wide receiver units will face the easiest cornerback slates this season.
Note that since many of your leagues won't include Week 17 in the fantasy schedule, only Weeks 1 through 16 are included in this analysis.
It's important not to overreact to any one variable when it comes to player evaluation, but this analysis should help you make better decisions (or at least break some ties) on draft day.
1. New York Giants
Odell Beckham Jr. and Sterling Shepard truthers, rejoice! I graded the Giants as the top cornerback unit in the league, and they also end up with the lightest schedule in this experiment. The Giants benefit greatly from playing in the NFC East. They face off with both the Eagles (ranked 31st) and Cowboys (20th) twice, and only see the Redskins (fourth) once during most fantasy seasons (the second meeting is Week 17). Eleven of the Giants' 15 games are against cornerback units ranked in the lower half of the league, which includes a stretch after a Week 10 meeting with the Bengals where they face no unit ranked better than 17th.
Looking specifically at Beckham, it's hard not to see him benefiting greatly from the Giants schedule. The likes of Delvin Breaux, Josh Norman and Darius Slay are terrific corners, but they are arguably the best competition he will face this season (not to mention that they may not even shadow). Most of these units also lack quality depth, which suggests Shepard is even more secure as a fringe WR3 during his rookie campaign.
2. Oakland Raiders
As if there's not enough to be excited about in Oakland this season, the Raiders' top receivers will enjoy a favorable schedule in 2016. The Broncos' cornerback unit is the only one on the Raiders' schedule this season that is ranked inside my top 10, and with one of the two meetings between the teams set for Week 17, most fantasy owners will only need to deal with Chris Harris Jr. & Co. once.
Although the schedule is light overall, it's worth noting that many of the defenses on Oakland's docket have a standout at corner but not much depth (which is why they rank poorly). This is important in the event that Amari Cooper takes a big leap forward in his second season. If defenses decide to shadow Cooper, he will see the likes of Breaux, Desmond Trufant, Jason McCourty, Jason Verrett (twice), Marcus Peters (twice), Jalen Ramsey, Brent Grimes, Harris Jr., Johnathan Joseph, Stephon Gilmore and Vontae Davis. That's a fairly tough slate, but would open up a massive opportunity for Michael Crabtree to dominate on the other side of the field. Crabtree and, to a lesser extent, Cooper should be upgraded as a result of Oakland's 2016 schedule.
3. Atlanta Falcons
The Falcons face off with three cornerback units ranked inside my top five (Denver, Green Bay, Arizona), but otherwise don't play one ranked better than 13th. In fact, eight of the team's 15 games will be against units ranked 21st or worse.
Possibly more so than with any other team, the balance between the opposing team's depth and top-end talent at the cornerback position is very important. This, of course, is because the Falcons have Julio Jones and little else at wide receiver. This means that Jones is going to be subject to shadow coverage more than most. In 2016, the top-end corners who could follow Jones around include Breaux, Harris Jr., Richard Sherman, Verrett, Patrick Peterson and Peters. On the whole, the Falcons' schedule will benefit Jones, but No. 2 receiver Mohamed Sanu may stand to benefit the most. I'm not a huge Sanu fan, but a generous target share against a light schedule is there for the taking.
4. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Because they're both in the NFC South, Tampa Bay and Atlanta have nearly identical schedules this season. In fact, the only reason the Falcons have an "easier" slate is because the Bucs' corners rank nine spots lower than those in Atlanta and the teams play each other twice.
The Buccaneers' schedule is interesting -- they have the league's toughest slate against corners in Weeks 1 through 4, but the easiest schedule from that point forward. That first month of the season will include matchups with Atlanta (12th), Arizona (2nd), Los Angeles (18th) and Denver (3rd). Mike Evans and Vincent Jackson are going to have their hands full with four quality duos in Trufant-Robert Alford, Peterson-Tyrann Mathieu, Trumaine Johnson-E.J. Gaines and Harris Jr.-Bradley Roby.
The Bucs might struggle to score against Carolina in Week 5 and have a bye in Week 6, so the days prior to a Week 7 meeting with San Francisco will be the time to try to strike a trade for Evans and/or Jackson. From that point forward, the dynamic duo won't see a secondary ranked better than 12th (Atlanta again) and five of their remaining 10 games will be against a unit ranked 24th or worse. Of course, if the likes of Peters, Sherman, Verrett and Breaux are asked to shadow Evans, this will open up a huge window for Jackson to produce down the stretch. Evans is a quality second-round target and Jackson remains a steal in the double-digit rounds.
5. Denver Broncos
The Broncos join the Buccaneers, Raiders and Chargers as the only teams with fewer than three cornerback units ranked better than 10th on their schedule. Denver's schedule includes Cincinnati (6th) in Week 3 and New England (8th) in Week 15. The Broncos face a unit ranked in the lower half of the league in nine of their other 13 games.
Because the Broncos have a strong one-two punch at wide receiver in Demaryius Thomas and Emmanuel Sanders, it's possible defenses won't shadow very often. That's good news for the prospects of both players, since many of the teams on Denver's slate are top-heavy at corner. The Bengals, Raiders, Chiefs and Patriots enjoy decent depth, but otherwise, there will be many windows for Thomas and Sanders to pounce on weak spots. I have my concerns about Denver's passing game this season, but the team's wide receivers will, at the very minimum, benefit from their schedule.
Just missed the cut
Washington Redskins, Arizona Cardinals, Cleveland Browns, San Diego Chargers, New York Jets
With matchups against Carolina, Chicago and Philadelphia, Washington easily sports the easiest schedule during Weeks 14-16, which is the playoffs for most leagues. By that point, rookie Josh Doctson could very well be significantly involved in the offense.
Meanwhile, the Browns have rather volatile schedule, as they face the cornerback units ranked 32nd, 31st, 30th and 28th (twice), but will also play six games against top-eight units. This could lead to uneven output from Josh Gordon and rookie Corey Coleman.