Fantasy football players should not be judged merely on static rankings, but rather on a spectrum of overall, boom-or-bust ratings.
The details of this grading method were covered in a recent analysis of the biggest boom-or-bust fantasy quarterbacks in 2016. In a nutshell, this system projects the overall upside and downside value of every player on a color rating system, where blue (a score of 90 or above) is elite, green (80-89 grade) is a strong weekly starter, yellow (60-79 grade) is a spot starter or solid backup and red (59 or below) is a bench or do-not-draft candidate.
This third part of this series takes a look at which boom-or-bust running backs need to be on your fantasy radar screen.
There are more volatile candidates at the upper tier of the running back position than there are in any of the other positions in this series. The first on this list is last year's leading scorer at running back, who could either repeat that performance or fall all the way to a yellow rating.
Most volatile candidate -- standard scoring
Devonta Freeman, Atlanta Falcons
Upside grade: 92 (blue rating)
Downside grade: 79 (yellow rating)
Overall grade: 88 (green rating)
Let's not forget that at this point last year, Atlanta was strongly considering utilizing a platoon backfield consisting of Freeman and Tevin Coleman before giving the starting role to Coleman in Week 1.
That isn't to suggest that Coleman is going to take over Freeman's starting job this year, but given how well Coleman has been progressing this offseason, there is a very good chance the Falcons will close last year's workload gap of 361 combined rushes and targets for Freeman versus 98 rushes/targets for Coleman.
Freeman also had a tale of two fantasy seasons last year. He had a four-game stretch from Weeks 3-6 when he scored 121 fantasy points and no fewer than 25 points in any single game. Over the course of the rest of the season, Freeman tallied only 109 points, had five games with fewer than 10 points, and had a single-game peak of 15 points.
If that latter Freeman shows up all year, or if Coleman takes over a larger workload, or if Freeman sees a decline in touchdowns from the league-leading 14 he scored last season, he could very well drop from a blue-rated RB1 to an upper-tier yellow-rated RB2.
Even though his downside floor still rates quite well (sixth highest among running backs), Freeman's risk factors make him probably the riskiest upper-tier RB1 on the board.
Most volatile candidates -- PPR scoring
Jonathan Stewart, Carolina Panthers
Upside grade: 90 (blue rating)
Downside grade: 71 (yellow rating)
Overall grade: 82 (green rating)
Stewart's volatility stems from the following question: Do you think he is in Adrian Peterson's class in terms of bell-cow durability?
This question has to be asked because Stewart came into last season having posted only eight games with 20 or more carries during his first seven seasons. He equaled that mark in 2015 by racking up eight games with 20 or more carries, a total that placed second only to Peterson.
Panthers head coach Ron Rivera seems to be of the mindset that Stewart should not be asked to carry that workload again, as he has indicated an interest in reducing Stewart's carries. Since Stewart doesn't offer much in the receptions department (only 16 catches last season), he is almost solely reliant on carry volume for fantasy value. If Rivera's plan takes hold and Stewart is also beset with another injury (a strong possibility, given his history before last year), he could very well fall into mid-tier yellow-rated territory and barely justify an RB2 designation.
Jamaal Charles, Kansas City Chiefs
Upside grade: 92 (blue rating)
Downside grade: 79 (yellow rating)
Overall grade: 83 (green rating)
Charles racked up four consecutive double-digit fantasy-point games before being lost for the year in Week 5 with a knee injury. That ailment is not about to put Charles into Wally Pipp territory, but it did show the Chiefs that they don't need Charles to keep their ground game going at full speed.
From Week 6 (the game following Charles' season-ending injury) to the end of the season, Kansas City ranked sixth in rushing yards (1,495), fourth in yards per rush (4.8), tied for second in rushing touchdowns (14), sixth in rush yards after first defensive contact (605) and fifth in rush yards before first defensive contact (890).
Charles also could get some competition as a breakaway back from Spencer Ware. Last year, Ware posted a 9.0-yard mark in my good blocking yards per attempt metric that measures how productive a ball carrier is when given good blocking (which is very roughly defined as not allowing the defense to disrupt a rush attempt). That mark was equal to Charles' 9.0 GBYPA last season, so Kansas City has the option of leaning on Ware for some of the breakaway carries.
It also cannot be overlooked that Charles will be 30 years old by the end of the 2016 campaign and is coming off of his second ACL injury in the past five years.
Put it all together and Charles has upper-tier yellow-rated downside, meaning he is best valued as an RB2, rather than as someone who is on track to revert to his scoring pace from the beginning of last season.
Upside grade: 90 (blue rating)
Downside grade: 72 (yellow rating)
Overall grade: 82 (green rating)
Four factors account for the wide range in McCoy's grades.
The first factor is Sammy Watkins' durability. ESPN NFL Nation Bills reporter Mike Rodak tallied up all of Watkins' injuries during his pro career and it ended up being quite a long list.
That leads to the second factor, which is Buffalo's lack of playmakers outside of Watkins. Last year, Tyrod Taylor averaged 15.7 yards per attempt (YPA) on vertical passes to Watkins (defined as aerials thrown 11 or more yards downfield). That is nearly twice as high as the 8.0 YPA Taylor averaged on vertical passes to Robert Woods, who would take over as the primary wideout in event of an injury to Watkins. It is not a stretch to say that Buffalo's downfield passing attack might lose half of its effectiveness if Watkins is out of the lineup. That might cripple the Bills' aerial attack and thus hinder the ground game as well.
The third factor is, according to my schedule ranking measurements, Buffalo's offense has the third-toughest rush defense matchup slate in the league.
Add all of these to the fact that Chip Kelly is the only coach to get McCoy to carry the ball 300 or more times in a season, and it indicates McCoy's upside potential is very tenuous this season, and his downside potential is very real.