Fantasy football players should not be judged merely on static rankings, but rather on a spectrum of overall, boom and bust ratings.
So, what boom-or-bust quarterbacks need to be on your radar this year?
While putting together last year's quarterback rankings, I had a big quandary in grading Carson Palmer.
On one hand, Palmer was a 35-year old quarterback coming off of a significant knee injury. The quality of Palmer's metrics in 2014 left something to be desired, Larry Fitzgerald was coming off of arguably the worst season in his career, there were question marks at the other wide receiver positions, the team had mediocre tight ends and Palmer historically did next to nothing rushing the ball.
Those factors resulted in Palmer earning a lower-tier grade in the QB rankings, but while assigning him this rating, the multiple elements pointing toward Palmer having low- to mid-tier QB1 potential kept coming to mind.
When Palmer ended up posting a No. 5 ranking in quarterback points, it led to this epiphany about using the overall, boom and bust spectrum.
The player grading system that resulted from this judges each player's potential in multiple categories (target volume, schedule strength, etc.) in terms of upside, downside and expected performance. Weights are then placed on these grades to give them proper relative impact and then expressed in a scale where 100 is the highest grade.
For ease of tracking, these tiers are then color coded, with 90-100 being a blue rating (signifying elite performance), 80-89 noting a green rating (a very good weekly starter), 60-79 claiming a yellow rating (a bench player who can be a solid spot starter) and anything 59 or below being designated as a red-rated player (ranging from a low-tier bench prospect to a player who shouldn't be on a fantasy roster).
Over the course of the next three weeks, I will be covering the outliers in these boom/bust ratings. This edition will review quarterbacks, starting with the NFL's 2015 MVP who has a surprising amount of downside potential.
Prime bust candidate: Cam Newton
Upside grade: 97 (blue rating)
Downside grade: 82 (green rating)
Overall grade: 90 (blue rating)
Newton led the league in fantasy points last year and had 38 more points than the second-place finisher (Tom Brady, 335), but he was nowhere near that level during the first half of that campaign. After eight weeks, Newton was ranked tied for seventh in quarterback fantasy points (131) and was eighth in points per game among quarterbacks with seven or more starts (18.7).
So what accounted for the production difference in the second half of the season? It was a ridiculously favorable schedule that saw Carolina face five teams that ranked 22nd or lower in fantasy points allowed to QBs (New Orleans, the New York Giants, Tampa Bay, Tennessee and Washington) and a Dallas club that ranked 29th in yards allowed per vertical pass attempt (12.5 on aerials traveling 11 or more yards downfield).
A beneficial schedule won't be the case in 2016, as the Panthers have seven games against teams that finished in the top 10 in QB fantasy points allowed, with four of those contests on the road. There are also three other matchups against teams that placed in the upper half of the league in this category, so the Panthers have a schedule that is anything but favorable.
Add this greatly increased matchup difficulty to a likely rushing regression from a career high 132 carries and it indicates Newton has the potential to decline to his 2014 production level that saw him tied for 15th in QB fantasy points (237). This means Newton is a risk at his current mid-tier second round average draft position (ADP) in ESPN leagues.
Best upside: Matt Ryan
Upside grade: 89 (green rating)
Downside grade: 73 (yellow rating)
Overall grade: 77 (yellow rating)
Ryan ranked 19th in quarterback fantasy points last year (224), so it is somewhat understandable that he is hovering just under that level in quarterback ADP.
But why isn't he getting more credit for his upside potential? After all, Ryan directed a league-leading 203 targets to Julio Jones last year. Those passes resulted in 98 fantasy points for Ryan, numbers that this tandem is capable of repeating in 2016.
Ryan also has one of the best pass catching running backs in Devonta Freeman. Last year, Freeman ranked tied for fourth among running backs in fantasy points scored on receptions in standard point leagues (73) and placed third in this category in point-per-reception (PPR) leagues (147).
Ryan also has a history of being a top-10 fantasy quarterback point producer, having finished at that level in four of the five seasons prior to 2015.
The only thing keeping him from reaching that mark last season was vertical pass production. Ryan ranked 23rd in fantasy points on vertical throws (78), but placed seventh in vertical passing yards (2,065) and 10th in vertical attempts (175), so it wasn't a matter of volume. The issue was vertical touchdowns, as Ryan's four scores in this area ranked tied for 29th. This was a career low for Ryan, as he had averaged 9.6 vertical pass touchdowns over the previous five seasons.
A return to his usual vertical scoring production level, when combined with the advantages of directing a high volume of targets to two of the best pass catchers at their respective positions, should help Ryan get back to his usual QB1 status. That makes him arguably the best upside to ADP value at this position.
Highly volatile selection: Kirk Cousins
Upside grade: 95 (blue rating)
Downside grade: 75 (yellow rating)
Overall grade: 85 (green rating)
There may not be a more volatile fantasy quarterback than Cousins.
He finished eighth in quarterback fantasy points last year (283) and looks to be set to post similar numbers in 2016. Cousins can rely on a stocked pass catching corps that includes a top-flight vertical wide receiver (DeSean Jackson), one of the best tight ends in the NFL (Jordan Reed), a very good possession receiver (Jamison Crowder) and possibly the most pro-ready wide receiver in the 2016 NFL draft (Josh Doctson). The matchups should also be in Washington's favor, as Cousins is tied for the second best QB matchup rating in my system.
Before signing off on Cousins to repeat his top-10 performance, however, we have to look at the negatives. Jackson and Reed both have durability question marks, something evidenced by their offensive snap counts. According to ESPN Stats & Information, Jackson ranks 33rd among wide receivers in this category over the past four years (2,668) and Reed rates 38th among tight ends over the past three years (1,366).
If Jackson or Reed were to miss time and Doctson has rookie transition woes, it would make Washington lean on Pierre Garcon for more targets. This could be an issue considering that Garcon ranked tied for 70th in yards per attempt (YPA) on short passes (5.4 on targets thrown 10 or fewer yards downfield) and 75th on stretch vertical YPA (7.5 on aerials traveling 20 or more yards).
The positives could skyrocket Cousins into top-five fantasy QB contention, but the durability negatives of Washington's pass catchers could bring him back into QB2 territory. It makes Cousins possibly the biggest boom-or-bust candidate at this position.