Fantasy football players should not be judged merely on static rankings, but rather on a spectrum of overall, boom and bust ratings.
That's especially true for three wide receivers this season.
The details of this grading method were covered in a recent analysis of the biggest boom-or-bust fantasy quarterbacks in 2016. In a nutshell, this system projects the overall, upside and downside value of every player on a color rating system where blue (a score of 90 or above) is elite, green (80-89 grade) is a strong weekly starter, yellow (60-79 grade) is a spot starter or solid backup and red (59 or below) is a bench or do-not-draft candidate.
This second part of this series takes a look at which boom-or-bust wide receivers need to be on your fantasy radar screen.
Two upper-tier wideouts fall into this category, but the one claiming the top spot on the list has the rare potential to land anywhere between a blue rating and a yellow rating.
Most volatile: Alshon Jeffery
Upside grade: 91 (blue rating)
Downside grade: 76 (yellow rating)
Overall grade: 82 (green rating)
Last year, Jeffery racked up 93 targets while playing in a little more than 8.5 games. If that target pace were pro-rated over the course of a 16-game season, it would give Jeffery the potential to see 175 total targets. That is a tremendous target volume and would almost certainly place Jeffery among the top five (and possibly the top three) in this category.
That workload potential is what gives Jeffery blue-rated upside, yet there are two factors that work substantially against his elite upside cap.
The first of these is Jeffery's middling production in a variety of route depth metrics. During the 2015 season, Jeffery ranked tied for 58th in yards per attempt (YPA) on vertical passes (10.0 on aerials thrown 11 or more yards downfield) and placed 44th in stretch vertical YPA (12.4 on passes traveling 20 or more yards downfield).
Jeffery fared even worse when facing quality cornerback competition. Last year, he posted a 6.7 YPA when matched up against a rated cornerback (defined as someone having faced 32 targets, thus qualifying the cornerback for the season-ending coverage ratings). This total ranked tied for 68th overall and placed 41st out of 46 receivers with at least 50 targets against rated cornerbacks. (Note: All of the NFL metrics detailed here and below include attempts and yardage on pass penalty plays such as pass interference, defensive holding, illegal contact, etc.)
Injuries may have at least partially caused these subpar numbers, but Jeffery didn't do that much better on stretch vertical targets (13.5 YPA, ranked 39th) or against rated cornerbacks (8.4 YPA, tied for 33rd) in 2014.
These factors mean Jeffery is much more dependent on target volume for fantasy value than other upper-tier fantasy wide receivers are. Some wideouts can contend for a top-three fantasy wide receiver role with 120-130 targets. Under his current production level, Jeffery cannot.
This might not be a significant issue if Jeffery were being considered for a WR2 or WR3 roster spot, but he is currently hovering around the third round as a low-tier WR1 in average draft position (ADP) in ESPN leagues. He may very well provide that value level, but fantasy owners should be aware that leaning this heavily on target quantity is a risk factor that makes Jeffery the most volatile wide receiver in fantasy football this year.
Second most volatile: Sammy Watkins
Upside grade: 89 (green rating)
Downside grade: 79 (yellow rating)
Overall grade: 84 (green rating)
Watkins is almost a polar opposite of Jeffery in terms of reliance on quality or quantity. Last year Watkins ranked first in overall YPA (11.7), third in vertical YPA (16.4), 10th in stretch vertical YPA (19.5), and second when facing a rated cornerback (12.3). Watkins also led the league in stretch vertical touchdowns (8). All of these indicate Watkins is one of the few wide receivers capable of keeping up with Antonio Brown in terms of metric quality.
The problem for Watkins is a difficulty in getting enough targets to make the most of the elite production per pass.
The starting point for this issue is playing in a Rex Ryan offense. The Bills ranked second in rush attempts last season (509). This continued a trend for Ryan, as according to pro-football-reference.com, no team in his head-coaching career has ever finished in the upper half of the league in pass attempts. In five of his seven head-coaching seasons, his club has finished 25th or lower in pass attempts.
Watkins' production also suffers from his being the only viable vertical passing threat on the Bills roster. Defenses will not respect Buffalo's downfield aerial attack unless Watkins is stretching the field, so he doesn't see anywhere near as many short passes as he would with a more balanced set of pass-catching personnel. This is part of why Watkins saw only 40 short pass targets last year (defined as attempts thrown 10 or fewer yards), a mark that placed tied for 54th.
Compounding these issues is Watkins' injury history. ESPN NFL Nation reporter Mike Rodak detailed Watkins' various ailments since entering the NFL, a list that included broken ribs, a groin injury, a hip injury that required surgery, a calf injury, a sprained ankle, and a broken foot.
Add these to the possible downside of having a somewhat unproven quarterback in Tyrod Taylor, and it means Watkins has a lot of hurdles to counter his nearly unparalleled upside potential.
Best upside: Sterling Shepard
Upside grade: 81 (green rating)
Downside grade: 64 (yellow rating)
Overall grade: 71 (yellow rating)
Shepard is cruising along at a low-tier WR4 ADP in ESPN leagues right now. That valuation sounds about right for a rookie wide receiver who was selected in the second round of the NFL draft, but a closer examination gives an idea of just how much upside Shepard could bring to the table.
Shepard was a workhorse for Oklahoma last season, ranking 10th among Power 5 wide receivers in targets (105). Giants head coach Ben McAdoo has a penchant for getting rookies in the lineup as quickly as possible and New York's lineup is bereft of proven veteran pass catchers outside of Odell Beckham. This means Shepard might be in line to see as many as 100 targets this year.
Those could be highly valuable pass attempts, as Shepard hit his share of home runs for the Sooners in 2015. He placed fifth among Power 5 receivers in vertical yards (643), sixth in vertical touchdowns (7), tied for seventh in stretch vertical touchdowns (4) and 18th in stretch vertical yards (315). Shepard did this despite ranking 34th in vertical targets per game (3.6) and tied for 72nd in stretch vertical targets per game (1.4), so the sky could be the limit with a larger downfield attempt volume. (Note: All of Shepard's metrics and associated rankings are from games between Power 5 opponents.)
The takeaway here is Shepard can give a fantasy owner low-tier WR2 upside for a low-tier WR4 draft day cost. That may make him the best upside value wide receiver on the board this year.